Login Search
Sportsbook Review
SBR Odds
SBR Picks

EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

Last Post
#2809

Default

ATP Cincinnati Mini-View
It's the final tune-up for the majority of the players in preparation for the US Open. Although Winston-Salem is on tap next week, Cincinnati traditionally is the final prep for most of the big names. It's not surprising then that since 2005, Andy Murray, Roger Federer & Rafael Nadal have been the Champions here in all but one trip to the Queen City. That came in 2006 for Andy Roddick. Things look as if they could be changing this week though. Murray is still not quite on-point. Federer comes off a disappointing Finals performance and somewhat taxing week in Toronto. And most surprising, Djokovic comes in with what looked like a lack of desire in Toronto. On top of that, Tsonga's surprising win in Toronto likely will have given hope to the field this week.

Seeds of Dispair
In 2013, six seeds fell in their first matches in Cincy. Six also fell in 2012. In 2011, four seeds dropped their first matches and six more fell in 2010. While desire for form should be paramount this week, there are still going to be upsets. Lack of form. Lack of surface success. Key in on those and of course, the opposition. That being said, here are some prone seeds.

#16 Tommy Robredo
This is more of match-up than form as Robredo played pretty well in Toronto. He also was solid at this event last year, knocking off Wawrinka before Berdych steamrolled him. Jack Sock is his first-up though and Sock should provide a stiff test.

#6 David Ferrer
Cincy has not been good to Ferrer as he has failed to win more than two matches in Cincy since 2010. Normally though he does grind through his first match before faltering. Still, Chardy or Kohlschreiber will provide a tough out. Mark it especially if Kohlschreiber advances. Ferrer beat him last week in Toronto, but that was a surface switch for the German. Beating the same guy two straight weeks is often very tough.

#3 Stan Wawrinka
I find Wawrinka on this list most weeks simply because he is difficult to predict. He has an out of the ordinary great run on grass, but struggled last week in Toronto. He fell in his second match after barely surviving his opener against Paire. Cincy has not been great for him. He has lost his 1st match three of his last six trips here and only won more than a single match once in the last six years. Karlovic or Becker to open. Certainly Karlovic would be the bigger threat.

#10 Richard Gasquet
Injured in Toronto and playing a fellow Frenchman? Sign me up to fade here. Benneteau is Gasquet's opener and he himself was solid in Toronto last week, knocking off Gulbis and taking a set off Raonic. Cincy has been good to Benneteau as well with some decent runs in the last 4-5 years. Gasquet might be happy to get in a match and prove healthy moving forward. That makes Benneteau a decent play.

#15 Fabio Fognini
Fognini has lost in the opening round in all but one of his three trips to the main draw in Cincy. Roger-Vasselin is not in great form, but he's got the game to win on this surface.

#11 John Isner
Difficult first rounder with Kevin Anderson. Isner has looked off since winning Atlanta with successive first-up losses to Steve Johnson and Ivan Dodig. Anderson had some good moments making the quarters in Toronto. Isner did make the Final here last year, but that was the only year he had really done anything much in Cincy. The caviat here is that Anderson has been very poor historically in Cincinnati with losses in the opening round, three of four times. Difficult match, but certainly one that the seed could lose.

#9 Ernests Gulbis
This tournament has been a nightmare for Gulbis & Dodig while not always the most consistent player on this surface, does have success over Gulbis in the past.

Qualifiers
Qualifiers are just 6-11 since 2011 here when facing a non-qualifier. Some of that has been due to poor match-ups, some just that they generally do not fare well. In looking at the slate of qualifiers who have made it into the main draw ... some interest is there.

Quick Quarter Breakdowns

Djokovic
After a poor showing in Toronto, indications are that Djokovic is very focused this week. Hard practice on Sunday with his pal Wawrinka and a career goal to achieve. A win in Cincinnati would give Djokovic a title in every Masters event on tour. The draw lends itself to him finding a deep run this week. Tsonga is the toughest cookie in the bunch and he could be on fumes if he makes it to the quarters against Djokovic. Even though I think there is some mental "real life" fatigue with Djokovic, I would be shocked if he was not at least in the semis here. A darkhorse for the quarter could come from the Chardy-Kohlschreiber winner in round one.

Wawrinka
A very tough quarter here with Dimitrov as the seed in the bottom half. The winner of a first rounder between Cilic and Feliciano Lopez could cause some real damage here. Dimitrov has the easier road of the two top seeds, but he looked a bit run down in losing to Tsonga late in Toronto. There are surprises from time to time as far as semifinalists in Cincinnati. This is a quarter where I think you might see a little shakeup.

Berdych
Another tough quarter with Berdych and Raonic as the top seeds. Gulbis could be a bit of a dangerman this week. Raonic looked a little weary from the long week in DC and maybe predictable fell short in Toronto. Berdych just has not been able to find himself recently, losing in his 2nd match last week for the 2nd straight tournament. He's made the semis two of the last three years in Cincy. Can he get on track this week? The draw is not overly tough early. Tough to not see one of those guys make the semis. Gulbis has been terrible here. Fognini certainly has not shown enough hard court game to be thought of as a major player.

Federer
It's Federer in one half here and Murray in the other. Federer will have the chance to shake off his fail on Sunday with some beatable opponents early. While this has been a good tournament for the Maestro, he has lost in the quarters two of the last three years and that's where he is seeded to face Murray. I'm expecting some good things from Murray this week. Although he has failed to make it past the quarters the last two years, his early draw is reasonable. His 1st test likely is Isner or Anderson in the third round and then Federer in the quarters. Isner or Anderson could be the darkhorse this week. So watch to see who makes it out of that first match. Some interesting floaters here like Bautista-Agut who did not look good last week and then Gael Monfils as a non-seed. Monfils nearly took Djokovic out in the opening round and he could be a real danger if he rolls early and gets a fatigued Federer.

Futures
Murray +750
Berdych +2500
Monfils +10000

It's another week where Djokovic is too short @ +130. I do expect better from him, but after last week - who wants to go in on that number? I prefer taking a shot on the bottom of the draw. With so much turn over recently, I would tread lightly on all futures this week. Still, some good options at big prices.



Give Points

Points Awarded:

sluggy1616 gave EaglesPhan36 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

Reply with Quote
#2811

Default

8.11.14 ATP Cincinnati
Sock @ +130
Roger-Vasselin @ +125
Parlay: Rojer-Tecau + Karlovic @ +114

*Weather forecast is calling for rain in the afternoon, so be aware that anything after 2pm or so local time looks to be in jeopardy of being delayed. Hopefully they will be hit & miss to allow for play, but does not sound so promising.
Give Points
Reply with Quote
Back to Forum