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EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

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ATP Madrid Open
The return of Novak Djokovic will be the thing to watch this week. He has been on the shelf since Monte Carlo with wrist pain. It'll be interesting to see if he's pushing it this week or if he's truly feeling better. Nadal is your top seed and comes in off the TKO of Nishikori for the Madrid Title. He had looked pretty solid until Sunday when Nishikori took it to him for a set plus before his back crippled him. Wawrinka is slated as the #3 this week and Federer is the 4th seed. The last nine titles in Rome have gone to either Nadal or Djokovic. This Spring nothing has been quite the same, so this should be a fairly wide open event given some of the statuses entering the week.You'll get a surprise semifinalist here every once in a while - not neccessarily unseeded, but someone who was not expected to be there. Tsonga or Dolgopolov are the ones I would watch potentially in Federer's quarter.

1st Round Upset Watch
Golubev over Verdasco
Since winning in Houston, Verdasco has been in the win one, lose one mode. That's been his record in Rome the last three trips here, losing in the Round of 32 for three straight years. Golubev should pose a threat here, having gone through qualis and nearly beating Nicolas Almagro in Madrid last week. Woth a small play.

Cechhinato over Sijsling
Sijsling on his least favorite surface should give the Italian Wildcard a shot. Cechhinato has been a consistent threat at the Challenger level on dirt. Sijsling did show some form in Madrid, beating a fading Tommy Haas in the process. Still, he is a 50-50 proposition on clay at best. Cechhnato has a chance to pick up his maiden ATL level win if he embraces the moment.

Seppi over Haas
A very slight underdog [+105] in this match, look for the Italian to return the favor after Haas beat him in three in Munich a few weeks back. Haas has really struggled for consistency and struggled with injury in 2014. Rome has been a bad stop for him with his last five trips here resulting in first match losses.

Nadal Quarter
Just call Rafa "Easy Rider" with this draw. Andy Murray is the seed on the bottom of this quarter with Isner and Youzhny as the other two seeded players. Isner is already out, losing to Melzer in his opener. Youzhny is still very short on form this year. There really are no dangerous floaters for Nadal in this quarter. Good first rounder in this quarter with an in-form Santiago Giraldo taking on Marin Cilic. The winner there takes on Melzer and could have a realistic quarter final shot since Murray still looks lost. End result should be Nadal to the semis.

Wawrinka Quarter
A very interesting quarter with Wawrinka as the third seed and Berdych as the 6th seed at the bottom. Wawrinka was stunned Thiem in Madrid. I'd expect a bit more focused effort this week as a result. He's been consistent in Rome, but not great in his career. The quarterfinals have been his best result. Berdych scored a couple decent wins in Madrid before falling flat to Nadal again in straight sets. He has made at least the quarters three straight years here and the semis last year. He's got the tougher path with Bautista-Agut possibly and Dimitrov again in his path. Berdy beat him in 3 in Madrid. Wawrinka should have a smooth road to the quarters with maybe the Haas/Seppi winner as his toughest competition. Italian wildcards Lorenzi & Cecchinato could be intriguing for a round or two. Still, this looks a good draw for Wawrinka if he's focused.

Federer Quarter
Federer should be back on court this week after missing Madrid to be at the births of his second set of twins. If Daddy Fed is loose and ready to go, this quarter is winnable. Milos Raonic is the top seed as the #8 in the top of the quarter. You also have Tsonga & Fognini in this quarter as seeds. Federer opens against Chardy. Raonic will have one of two Italians, Bollelli or Travaglia. Raonic is 0-3 in Rome. I don't know that he'll get bit in his first match (give Bolelli the better shot), but look for Anderson, Dolgopolov or Tsonga in that next round to take him out. Fognini has never found Rome to be a great place to play with a 6-8 mark and no more than two main draw wins any year. Rosol has a chance to beat him to open. Federer made the Final and the semis in his last two trips to Rome. End result, Federer has the steadiest game in this quarter. A surprise semifinalist could be Dolgopolov or Tsonga if they build on the confidence of whom beats whom in the opener.

Djokovic Quarter
Djokovi's health is the big question. Stepanek to open for him. Robredo or Kohlschreiber will be next up. Ferrer could be in great shape for a quarterfinal run this week with a weakened Kei Nishikori as the other seed in his half. Nishikori looked great at times in Madrid, but struggled with a back problem all week. I will be somewhat surprised if Nishikori doesn't choose to rest rather than play Rome this week. If he does play, Gulbis could see a very real chance to nip him in their opener. You have to like the two top seeds in this quarter as the best chances to go deep. I'll give Gulbis an outsider's shot if the physical plagues of Nishikori and Djokovic allow him an easier route.

Futures Investments
No prices listed, but I think Nadal and Wawrinka up top show the most promise to go deep. The bottom quarters to me are a bit more questionable based on health and layoffs. Federer could be worth a look at longer odds, but I would wait until he plays a match to see how he does against Chardy to open.



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