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EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

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ATP Monte Carlo Mini-view
This tournament rarely produces much in the way of a surprise in the Finals. Either the #1 or #2 seed or both have been involved in the Final in eight straight years. Nadal has made the Final every year since 2005 and won eight of the last nine. Djokovic winning in 2013.

1st Round Upset Potential
Seppi over Youzhny
Balleret over Garcia-Lopez

Nadal Quarter
It looks like a smooth ride for Rafa at least to the quarters. That is where he may find Ferrer. Dimitrov, Granollers or Ramos could loom in Ferrer's 2nd match. Ferrer has a 21-9 mark in Monte Carlo, but he lost his 1st-up in 2012 and did not participate here last year. I do believe he'll be able to find the form to push through to a quarterfinal against Rafa. Dimitrov is the dark horse in this quarter. Andujar might be worth backing for a couple rounds before he could potentially meet Rafa. He opens with Roger-Vasselin and then would face Seppi or Youzhny. His clay form is better than any of that group in 2014.

Wawrinka Quarter
Stan made the 4th round both in Indian Wells and Miami, but lost to the likes of Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Not the type of losses you want to see the #3 player in the world being saddled with. Toss in a Davis Cup hiccup to Andrey Golubev and this could be a crucial tournament for him. He's played well here recently with quarterfinals trips his last two times in Monte Carlo. His draw affords him a good semifinal shot if his head is on straight. Cilic or Verdasco will test him right away. I expect this to be one of the better first round matches if Verdasco can overcome any potential fatigue from winning Houston and travelling. The winner likely gives Wawrinka a hard time. The bottom of this quarter sees Raonic and vets like Robredo, Benneteau and Melzer. Seems to me the top of this quarter is where the semifinalist comes through.

Federer Quarter
Temper the expectations for Federer as he may be using this as a warm-up for next week in Madrid where he normally plays much better. He's in Monte Carlo for the 1st time in three years. Karlovic or Stepanek will be his first opponent. He'd probably see Jerzy Janowicz before a potential QF with Tsonga or Fognini. Those are the headliners in the top part of the quarter. Fognini will have it more difficult with Sousa to open and then possible Bautista-Agut after that. With Tsonga still in a bit of a funk, look for Fognini to potentially skirt through and he might slip into the semis if Federer isn't full engaged.

Djokovic Quarter
Djokovic sits in the bottom of the quarter. Paire opens against Montanes with the winner to be Djokovic's first victim. A good 1st rounder between Anderson and Monfils also takes place in this portion of the quarter along with young gun Carreno-Busta taking on Dodig. Watch Monfils, but DJokovic punches through to the quarters. Berdych leads the seeds in the top part of the bracket. Dolgopolov is also in that portion of the quarter. Berdych has been very consistent in 2014. He faces Turnsunov and then likely Dolgopolov. Dog is having one of his best runs maybe ever this Spring, so watch for him to turn it up this week if Berdych falls short. Djokovic should squeak through here, but Berdych and Dog could be threats.

Futures
Nadal -125
Djokovic +185

As I said early, this tournament does not produce much in the way of surprises by the time the Final is set. These are likely your guys this week. Prices seem solidly set with Nadal I think given a bit easier route to the Final, while Djokovic's quarter alone has a couple of tough outs in Berdych or Dolgopolov. At his best though, Djokovic should be expected to be in the Final.
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