ATP MIAMI MINI-VIEW
The top dogs are all in tow this week with top seed Rafael Nadal, 2nd seed Novak Djokovic, 3rd seed Stan Wawrinka and 4th seeded David Ferrer all scheduled for play. Last year's champion Andy Murray is seeded 6th and the resurgent Roger Federer is 5th. Over the last seven years. Djokovic & Murray have been the major players here with multiple titles each since 2007. Murray has made the Final two years running. Among the other top seeds, Miami has been very good to Rafa. He has made the semis or better in four of his last five trips to South Beach. Federer has had a mixed bag in Miami. He lost in the round 0f 32 last year and hasn't made the final here since 2006. He's only made the semis twice in his last six trips to Miami, but does have a nice draw. Wawrinka has not fared well here at all, losing his 1st match last year to Granollers and only advancing as far as the 4th round once in five visits. He's a different player now, but he still looks to be a good fade early. Ferrer will be an interesting watch this week if he's recovered from his leg problem that forced him out Acapulco.
1st/2nd Round Upset Watch
Bautista-Agut or Qualifier vs. Janowicz (2nd)
Janowicz will be over priced because of his ranking, so there could be good value found in going against him. Outdoor hard courts have been one of the trickiest surfaces for the inconsistent Pole. He lost in his opener in Indian Wells last week to Alejandro Falla. He got dropped by Thomaz Bellucci in his first match in Miami in 2013.
Qualifier over Pospisil (2nd)
There's no way that I can fathom backing the Canadian at this point. His back problem from earlier this year has caused him to miss a lot of time and he's looked rusty and uncertain. Crushing defeats to Dolgopolov and Kukushkin along with a three set loss to Becker earlier this week at a Challenger show no sign of immediate improvement.
Tomic/Nieminen over Dolgpolov (2nd)
This is a gut feeling as Dolgopolov has been playing consistent tennis and winning tennis over the past three tournaments. That's part of the thinking though is that a player who struggles with travel and quick climate changes could have a bit of a problem at some early point this week with consistency. Nieminen would be the preferred opponent for an optimal fade.
Gabashvili over Granollers (1st)
Although Gabashvili is hardly trustworthy from week-to-week, Granollers has not proven to be a consistent winner on this outdoor hard surface and has generally not had a great start to the season. He's lost three straight, all on his preferred surface of clay. Granollers did have a good run to the 4th round in 2011 in Miami, but has lost his 1st up the last two years.
Giraldo/Baghdatis over Kohlschreiber (2nd)
Kohlschreiber looked thoroughly uninterested in Indian Wells, losing quickly to Yen-Hsun Lu in straights. That came after a solid semifinal trip in Dubai. Perhaps travel fatigue was to blame, but the German has been a bit inconsistent this year so he bears watching as someone to fade. He's also just 2-9 @ Miami.
Monaco over Chardy (1st)
The Argentine holds a 6-1 head-to-head advantage with the majority of those meetings coming on clay. Chardy has failed to win back to back matches in three straight tournaments. Monaco has showed some life in recent tournaments after breaking a losing streak in February. Miami has been pretty good to him. He's made at least the third round in three of the last four years, including a semifinal run in 2012.
Nadal Quarter
Nadal's back remains his biggest opponent at this stage of the season. It's definitely knocked his confidence level down a notch and it has shown. He has a workable draw if healthy. Tursunov, Janowicz and Fognini are the other seeds in his half of the quarter. Fognini has certainly been playing great tennis, but this tournament has not been kind to him. Del Potro is the 8th seed along with Pospisil, Raonic and Monfils on the bottom. Del Potro's own wrist injury is a great cause for concern. Not being mentally confident in your body is not where you want to be heading into a Masters event. With Pospisil also in Del Potro's immediate area, there is a chance that even an uber-douche like Ryan Harrison could sneak through to the 3rd round. As for the healthier options, Raonic and Monfils would seem to be the main beneficiaries of the questionable health in the bottom of this quarter. If Rafa struggles, I'd look for Raonic or Monfils - my guess, Raonic, to come out of this quarter.
Wawrinka Quarter
The #3 seed tripped up in Indian Wells in the 4th round against Kevin Anderson. This is another big opportunity for Wawrinka to prove he belongs in the top five. This has not been a great tournament for him in the past. He'll find a tough opponent in the third round with Marin Cilic likely to be waiting for him. It may only get tougher if Wawrinka survives there as Dolgopolov and Haas also inhabit this part of the draw. Haas fell to Roger Federer in the third round last week, but got solid wins over Chardy and Nishikori. He made the semis in Miami in 2013. I think the quarterfinal slot from this part of the bracket may come down to Haas against the winner of a Cilic-Wawrinka clash. The bottom of the quarter is led by the 7th seed, Tomas Berdych. Berdych said he played his worst match of the year in Indian Wells as he lost to Bautista-Agut. Prior to that, he was playing some of the most consistent tennis on tour. I like this draw for him. He's made the quarters in Miami twice in the last three years and was a Finalist in 2010. Isner, Almagro and Simon are the other seeds in this portion of the bracket. If Wawrinka doesn't prove tough enough, Berdych is the first choice here - but I won't be shocked to see Haas or Cilic sitting in the semis.
Ferrer/Federer Quarter
Federer has shown that he's still got the ability to hunt with the big dogs, especially in these best of three formats. Winning Dubai and making the Final in Indian Wells should have only bolstered his swagger. As a seed, he also gets a nice break in between tournaments, so fatigue should not be too heavy. I think he sets up well for another good week with Verdasco, Anderson and Gasquet as the seeds in his half of the bracket. A quarterfinal looks promising for Roger this week. I'd be remiss to not mention this is the scene of the crime for Gasquet's infamous cocaine stripper kiss from 2009 that nearly got him banned for a period of time. Don't totally discount him this week. Ferrer has a lot of young players in his half of the bracket with Dimitrov and Nishikori headlining the seeds along with Seppi. Health is the question for Ferrer. If Ferrer is healthy, the quarterfinal spot likely comes down to Ferrer, Nishikori or Dimitrov. A Ferrer-Federer show in the QFs would be a good one.
Djokovic Quarter
A big win in Indian Wells last week will have given Djokovic some mojo that was desperately needed. He does have a danger in Gulbis to deal with in the bottom portion of this draw. The other seeds are Florian Mayer and Tommy Robredo. Djokovic should be expected to advance to the 4th round with minimal problems. That's where Gulbis would be waiting. Andy Murray is still looking for that run to get his season on-track. Miami as outlined has been good to him, but his game this year has not. He does have a fairly straight-forward draw. Ebden or Kubot in the 2nd round and likely Felciano Lopez in the third. Watch for youngster Jiri Vesely who seems to be adapting to hard courts and nearly knocked Murray out of Indian Wells last week. Kohlschreiber and Tsonga are the seeds in the other part of Murray's bracket. They both may have a tough time winning this week given their match-ups. Kohlschreiber gets either Giraldo or Baghdatis and Tsonga could go against Nikolay Davydenko for the 2nd time this year. Really, there could be any of three of four guys to come through to the quarters against Djokovic given the form in this bracket. I'll say with a little hesitation that I think Tsonga puts it together for that spot.
Futures
Djokovic +275
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Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
