(Plays 5/6 - 5/12)

Beginning BAL = 6.47

Pending play from prior thread:

One early play for 5/7:

2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +3.5 (1.93). 2 to win 1.86.

...Short-travel as playoff games go. 200-mile bus ride, Mavs should be ready to go.
...Feel like OKC got off easy against New Orl. No Zion, and Ingram was a mess.
...Truth is that OKC lucked into the 1-seed. Den/Min mangled it with late-season losses.
...Based on late-season form, Mavericks match up perfectly well with this team.
...With acquisition of Gafford and injury return of Lively, lineup is now best DALL version.


Also have four Outstanding futures on the Conference/Series. Knock on wood, those look pretty good (right now).

1* Minn TWolves (gm2) +5 (2.08). 1 to win 1.08.
...Wolves win Game One. Some would lobby for the Nuggets to be in a natural bounce-back spot.
...MINN mangled the end of the Reg Season. Came up short in the two biggest games, could have locked up the 1-seed.
...Towns played well last game. Can shoot the 3 and score inside. His return lengthens the bench.
...MINN slightly better on some metrics. A little better on Net Point Diff and eFG%.
...The Murray injury is a real thing. Shut out in 1h last game. If he's compromised, I don't see where the pts come from.
...I view Gordon as being not quite as good as he was last year. His 3%/Reb/Blk are down this year.
...DEN had only 3 Off Rebounds last game. MINN = top DEF team in league, hard to beat by margin.

The one caveat: Does the NBA need Denver to win this game? 0-2 going on road brings prospect of a short series.

Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Beginning BAL = 6.47

Pending play from prior thread:

One early play for 5/7:

2* Dallas Mavs (gm1) +3.5 (1.93). 2 to win 1.86.

...Short-travel as playoff games go. 200-mile bus ride, Mavs should be ready to go.
...Feel like OKC got off easy against New Orl. No Zion, and Ingram was a mess.
...Truth is that OKC lucked into the 1-seed. Den/Min mangled it with late-season losses.
...Based on late-season form, Mavericks match up perfectly well with this team.
...With acquisition of Gafford and injury return of Lively, lineup is now best DALL version.


Also have four Outstanding futures on the Conference/Series. Knock on wood, those look pretty good (right now).

Adding a unit. 1* Dallas Mavs (gm3) +3 (2.08). 1 to win 1.08.
...Going to make a strange comment. Kleber injured, will be Out.
...I think this actually helps Dallas. More minutes for Gafford/Lively. And Powell should get a few more minutes.
...Kleber had the ability to shoot the 3. Gaff/Live/Pow are interior players. I expect Dallas FG% to be quite high.

Adding a fourth unit. Dall +3.5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.

Day: 1-0

...MIN wins even w/o Gobert.

EDIT: That should say Beginning BAL = 106.47. So YTD Net = +6.47 units.

Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Adding a fourth unit. Dall +3.5 (2.00). 1 to win 1.00.

5th unit on Mavs: +4.5 (1.93). 1 to win .93.

Good Luck. Go, Mavs.

Doncic off to a good start!

Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Day: 1-0

...MIN wins even w/o Gobert.

Day: 0-5
Week: 1-5

Nice effort by the Mavs. The two Guards should decline their paycheck for this game.

2* Dallas Mavs +4.5 (2.04). 2 to win 2.08.

...I know they looked bad. Excluding the L2 Regular Sea games, Mavs haven't lost BB games in 9 weeks.
...Stats looked really bad. Need improvement on TOs. 2FG% should get better, and 3% needs to be closer.
...I expect Lively/Gafford to be better in Gm2. Dallas guards were terrible in Gm1.
...Similar loss in Gm1 vs Clips. Team bounced back to win Gm2.
...OKC is a young team. They're a year ahead of schedule IMHO. Spot where they'll feel over-confident?

Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* Dallas Mavs +4.5 (2.04). 2 to win 2.08.

...I know they looked bad. Excluding the L2 Regular Sea games, Mavs haven't lost BB games in 9 weeks.
...Stats looked really bad. Need improvement on TOs. 2FG% should get better, and 3% needs to be closer.
...I expect Lively/Gafford to be better in Gm2. Dallas guards were terrible in Gm1.
...Similar loss in Gm1 vs Clips. Team bounced back to win Gm2.
...OKC is a young team. They're a year ahead of schedule IMHO. Spot where they'll feel over-confident?

Adding a 3rd unit. Dall +5.5 (1.88). 1 to win .88.
...Doncic is listed as a GTD. But I expect to play > 98% of the time.
...Funny how people have written off DALL after one bad loss. I find the 2024 playoff lines to be very sensitive to last out.
...Mavs played 3/14 @OKC w/o Doncic. Gave em a pretty good game, that should give them some confidence.

I see this as a much more equitable matchup. Looking for a wire-job tonite.

Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Day: 0-5
Week: 1-5

Nice effort by the Mavs. The two Guards should decline their paycheck for this game.

Day: 3-0
Week: 4-5

Bounceback effort by the Mavs. I really think people wrote them off after Gm1.

The media is so finicky nowadays. A bunch of Know-It-Alls who can explain it after it goes final.

1* Boston Celtics (Gm3) -7 (1.82). 1 to win .82.
...Celtics come off a historically bad performance.
...# looks too short to me on the HCA flip.
...Will stick with my opinion that Boston comes out of the East w/o much sweat.
...Until I hear otherwise, I will consider Allen to be out. Cav bench/rotation is not very strong w/ current injuries.

Injury updates for tonite:

*NYK: Knick injuries have been documented.
...Brunson = GTD.
...McBride to start for Anunoby.
...Achiuwa figures to get more Minutes. But he is also not far removed from missing time.

*DEN: Murray/Cald-Pope listed as GTD.
...I'd be surprised if either misses.
...Better question = Who is going to stop the Ant Man? Cald-Pope looks old, and two bench players are gone from last year.
...Is Denver even worth a play tonite? Gobert returns. DEN has a lot more questions than answers.
...All that said, you don't get Jokic at +4.5 too often.

2* NYKnicks (gm3) +7.5 (1.91). 2 to win 1.82.
...Brunson looks to be playing. So, I consider this # to be ridiculous.
...I know about the injuries. Might be too big of a swing.
...I rate Achiuwa as a lateral move from Anunoby.
...Depth is going to be a problem. Starters will be playing Big minutes.
...I expect Sims to be forced into action. He hasn't played in forever, but he's actually pretty good.

I don't think the NBA office will respond well to Carlisle's heavy-handed comments. Can't talk your way into a win. And I was frankly un-impressed by the Pacers in Gm2. Lack of killer instinct, when you had a chance to put away a wounded animal.