How do I get his pick for tonight's game?
Lots of good NFL cappers tough question
Good luck this weekend guys! He picked buffalo twice so far this year and is 3-0 on his best bets and they have all been huge blowouts.
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 NYJ TEN MIN CAR BUF
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 19 6 0 19
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 15 10 0 15
Unfortunately lines on DFL 1 not available unless you pay ridiculous juice.
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
+2/+3.5/+3 /-3 / -3 (contest lines)
nice games...
I was on 3 of the plays already. Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. Feel even more confident he has the same 3.Originally Posted by jmathes
Good luck this weekend guys! He picked buffalo twice so far this year and is 3-0 on his best bets and they have all been huge blowouts.
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 NYJ TEN MIN CAR BUF
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 19 6 0 19
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE2 15 10 0 15
Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.Unfortunately lines on DFL 1 not available unless you pay ridiculous juice.
DAVIDFROHARDT LANE1 PIT MIA BUF BAL ARI
+2/+3.5/+3 /-3 / -3 (contest lines)
Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.
Crazy.
And this week is screaming that loud and clear !!Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.
Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.
Crazy.
Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.
Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.
Crazy.
Thats a very false statement and thats why this thread has gone to shit. The SuperContest Wednesday line vs the closing line movement has only affected the spread on 1 game so far this year. You saying it changes the success rate 17% or more is an idiotic statement and clearly have no clue what you're talking about.
Points Awarded:
mitch51 gave jmathes 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
snapperman2 gave jmathes 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
RGIlles gave jmathes 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Wrong. Dead wrong, which is why this thread is one of the saddest (worst) on SBR.Thats a very false statement and thats why this thread has gone to shit. The SuperContest Wednesday line vs the closing line movement has only affected the spread on 1 game so far this year. You saying it changes the success rate 17% or more is an idiotic statement and clearly have no clue what you're talking about.
The moving line, i.e., anyone getting in on Saturday evening or later, versus the Supercontest posted line has already affected four of the picks made by the individual you're tailing, and he hasn't even had his first tie yet (typically the Supercontest winner has between 4-7 ties, most of which you will be losing again because of the negative spread movement).
You can defend it all you like, you can howl at the moon that "regression to the mean is false", the "moving line makes no difference", etc, but reasons like this are the exact, to the tee, reason why you've been a failed handicapper to the point where you desperately have to tail lines that are 4+ days old by the time you get them.
Sad.
I guess it's sad. But since taking his stale, 4+ day lines I have made a ton of money tailing this guy's picks. I bet them 2x and wish I could bet them for more. The only games that have been different for me regarding line changes? I pushed one game that he lost and lost one game that he won. I'm not exactly getting killed, as you put it. So, we are up $1,700 at this point in the season.Wrong. Dead wrong, which is why this thread is one of the saddest (worst) on SBR.
The moving line, i.e., anyone getting in on Saturday evening or later, versus the Supercontest posted line has already affected four of the picks made by the individual you're tailing, and he hasn't even had his first tie yet (typically the Supercontest winner has between 4-7 ties, most of which you will be losing again because of the negative spread movement).
You can defend it all you like, you can howl at the moon that "regression to the mean is false", the "moving line makes no difference", etc, but reasons like this are the exact, to the tee, reason why you've been a failed handicapper to the point where you desperately have to tail lines that are 4+ days old by the time you get them.
Sad.
That being said, this thread by jmathes has been one of the more valuable threads in SBR. But like he says, you have to dig through a big pile of shit to dig anything out because of comments like yours.
Sad.
Mitch do you play both lane 1 and 2 ? I value your opinion and insight, thanks !
Historically, the point spread matters in the NFL only about 15% to 18% of the time. That is, between 82% and 85% of the time the team that wins also covers the pointspread. If one was to follow his top 5 plays and let's say was able to get the same number 3x and on the other two plays was off by .5-1.5 points how then 'would a 67% rate ATS fall to 50% or lower?'Which is something the people in this thread don't understand the importance of.
Anyone tailing picks today from WEDNESDAY LINES will wind up on the losing side often enough that the LVH's winner having say a 67% rate ATS falls to 50%, or lower, for the "late" line bettor.
Crazy.
Mitch do you play both lane 1 and 2 ? I value your opinion and insight, thanks !
Yes, we do play both cards. We thought about only playing card 1 but his card 2 was the card that won it for him last year. I think if you just take card 1 you'll be missing out on some money. We also play double units on each game as we view this as a money making opportunity in the NFL. That's why we like this thread.
Mitch & Ali
this thread should only consists of two types of posts. 1st is his picks. the 2nd should be posters giving thanks for the picks. instead we got a lot of jibberish in between.
