Login Search

Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

Last Post
#1486

Default

Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain View Post
really like toronto tonight.. im a sox fan.. doubront sucks and they suck.. happ sucks too, but toronto should outscore the sox in a high scoring game.. bunch of righty power hitters on toronto
i was on the same page as you nash.. games not over as we know the blue jays pen is horrid.. but +130 on the jays vs doubront is too juicy to pass up
#1494

Default

Quote Originally Posted by brandcorytoby View Post
What is your record on posted plays?
Gun to head, about five or six over .500 give or take.

Here's the thing, I don't bet anything with a big minus sign in front of it.
Minus signs are never your friend unless you are using two of them in a money line parlay, then, and only then can me an Mr - sign can coexist

I can show you how to turn a profit without even being .500, even though my record is about 53 or so percent, most of my winners, about 75 percent of them are winning dogs.

Any hamburger can pick -185 faves, picking -185 faves will kill your 'roll in the end.

It's not about the record on posted plays, it's all about the profit above zero.

For every two -150 plays that go bad, you need to hit three -150 plays just to break even.
That's 60 percent, can you go 60 percent? Just to break even?

I have hit a +190 doggy, a couple of short +130's give or take, and an over this week so far.
I can lose 5 in a row (dogs) and still show a tiny margin.

Not my intention to preach at ya, just making a point.

The bottom line is the bottom line
Give Points

Points Awarded:

TakingVegasMoney gave stevenash 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

Big Bear gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

#1495

Default

Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
Gun to head, about five or six over .500 give or take.

Here's the thing, I don't bet anything with a big minus sign in front of it.
Minus signs are never your friend unless you are using two of them in a money line parlay, then, and only then can me an Mr - sign can coexist

I can show you how to turn a profit without even being .500, even though my record is about 53 or so percent, most of my winners, about 75 percent of them are winning dogs.

Any hamburger can pick -185 faves, picking -185 faves will kill your 'roll in the end.

It's not about the record on posted plays, it's all about the profit above zero.

For every two -150 plays that go bad, you need to hit three -150 plays just to break even.
That's 60 percent, can you go 60 percent? Just to break even?

I have hit a +190 doggy, a couple of short +130's give or take, and an over this week so far.
I can lose 5 in a row (dogs) and still show a tiny margin.

Not my intention to preach at ya, just making a point.

The bottom line is the bottom line
Nice post nasher
#1496

Default

Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
Gotta tip your cap to Morales for planting a 93mph fastball in Bumgarner knee cap.

He will think twice before throwing at Tulo again.
Did you watch the game, I'm thinking you didn't.

First off you're tipping your cap to the wrong pitcher; Morales didn't hit MadBum, Brothers did.

Second, MadBum didn't "throw at Tulo", if he's going to throw at him he's not going to use his 'cutter' the pitch that hit Tulo, plus the circumstance and situation were all wrong, that was just a pitch that got away.

Third, you don't know MadBum very well if you think that's going to make him think twice. As evidenced by him immediately talking shit to the catcher and the entire Rockies bench, don't think he is exactly intimidated, just saying.
Last edited by lovetobet; 05-21-14 at 05:03 PM.
#1497

Default Slug fest ends today: KC/CHW UNDER 8 runs

First and foremost, winds are blowing IN from center at 10 MPH, unlike the first two games of the series where the winds were blowing out to center at 10 MPH assisting many base hits.

I'm expecting balls to stay in the park for several reasons tonight.

1)

AL-White Sox @ Royals
Weather Update Wed, 21 May 2014 09:05:00 AM
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Kaufman Park 6 hour forecast
4 PM 5 PM 6 PM 7 PM 8 PM 9 PM
Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 0% Rain 30%


2)
CHW Start Quintana, always liked that pitcher.
He's a strikeout artist, not like Max or Kershaw, but he's K'd 45 in 54 innings, sounds like 7.5 per nine to me.
Last season, around 8 as well.
3.67 ERA and 1.28 WH/IP are sound numbers.

3)
The middle of the KC order really struggles against Quintana
Butler/Gordon/Hosmer can't touch him, I mean look it up, hate him, horrible numbers.

Moose, who can hit him, is riding the bench tonight.
The bottom of this order is weak ass, Quintana should have his way with them.

Norichika Aoki RF
Alcides Escobar SS
Eric Hosmer 1B
Billy Butler DH
Alex Gordon LF
Lorenzo Cain CF
Danny Valencia 3B
Pedro Ciriaco 2B
Brett Hayes C

4)
KC starts Guthrie.
Guthrie has a tidy 1.24 WH/IP he's not a K specialist, he gets 'contact' outs.
However, his flyballs aren't going to leave the park tonight.

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium)

7:10 PM CDT on May 21, 2014
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM
Wind
3 mph South

4 mph West

5 mph West

6 mph West

7 mph NNE

7 mph NNE
Conditions
Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm
Temperature 85 °F 85 °F 84 °F 82 °F 81 °F 79 °F
Humidity 51 % 53 % 56 % 59 % 62 % 65 %
Chance of Rain 27 % 27 % 27 % 27 % 51 % 51 %



Game stays under 8 tonight.

I don't subscribe to the 'due' theory, there are those that do.

OK, if you want to say the two teams hitting is 'due' to slow down tonight, fine, that's not why the game goes under.

Quinatana, the winds at 8pm blowing dead in, and the weak ass KC bottom half of the order is.

You can get +105 on the under 8, good wager from where I sit.
Give Points

Points Awarded:

Ronald S. gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

Wesley gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

#1498

Default

To Checker and Bear. Thanks. I didn't have a play on the game. Was just a cautionary post to Grits that I didn't really like the over. I dont touch totals in that park. Game played out pretty much like I thought except for the last inning. Was an inch away from ending on 7 with that Crawford missed catch and an inch away from ending on 10 with the Arenado hit.

Middle if SF order was 0-12 but Posey out actually hurt sf more on the other side. H Sanchez insisted on calling sliders to Arenado even after Romo hung 3 straight. Posey would have wisely kept him on the change.

Great job yesterday Nash and good luck today.
#1499

Default

Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
Gun to head, about five or six over .500 give or take.

Here's the thing, I don't bet anything with a big minus sign in front of it.
Minus signs are never your friend unless you are using two of them in a money line parlay, then, and only then can me an Mr - sign can coexist

I can show you how to turn a profit without even being .500, even though my record is about 53 or so percent, most of my winners, about 75 percent of them are winning dogs.

Any hamburger can pick -185 faves, picking -185 faves will kill your 'roll in the end.

It's not about the record on posted plays, it's all about the profit above zero.

For every two -150 plays that go bad, you need to hit three -150 plays just to break even.
That's 60 percent, can you go 60 percent? Just to break even?

I have hit a +190 doggy, a couple of short +130's give or take, and an over this week so far.
I can lose 5 in a row (dogs) and still show a tiny margin.

Not my intention to preach at ya, just making a point.

The bottom line is the bottom line
And that's the bottom line......cause Steve Nash says so.....