Killer write-ups Nash, gl on the season.
Appreciate it.Originally Posted by KRIT
Killer write-ups Nash, gl on the season.
It's a grind.
Profit is profit. Good luck, nash.
The business of business is business, and the bottom line is the bottom line.Profit is profit. Good luck, nash.
Thanks for the well wishes.
Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.Up to -150 only, that's set in stone.
I'll parlay -180 faves, I'll take +110 on a run line on a -190 fave, will never lay more that 3:2
If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.
This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.
Damn Nash you just got dicked. How did that taste?Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.
If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.
This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.
This is big stuff here. We will see what route chooses to go with this one. Someone alert JJ.Damn Nash you just got dicked. How did that taste?
This is how we will handle this.This is big stuff here. We will see what route chooses to go with this one. Someone alert JJ.
His quote:
Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.
If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.
My response:
Your first mistake is coming into my house and telling me I don't understand math.
Your second mistake, pretty ballsy one too, is to tell me to don't try to justify it.
What do you think, I am going to take your cheap sucker shot and lay down?
First off I am mainly a spot dog player, mixing in short faves and pick 'em games.
I will from time to time play two team parlays using two faves.
Now I will justify it using math and showing you the work.
In the past 20 years, favorties have won a little over 61 percent of all baseball games. Fact!
If you were hitting 60 percent in basketball or football you would be crushing it. But that's laying 11-10.
Baseball is a game bet with money lines, there is no point spread, the money line is a tool sportsbooks use to the house advantage.
A good method to overcome this house advantage is to parlay two favorites.
A good baseball 'capper that wins 62 percent, and there are plenty, can show a 40 pecent ROI using the parlay.
You won't win as many parlay wagers, but you get better value than betting each one s/u
Let's say you like a -140 game and a -130 game.
Straight betting, you bet 100 on each
The 40 cent fave misses, the 30 cent fave hits.
You lose 100 on the 40 cent fave, you collect 77 dollars on the 30 cent fave, reverse it, your 30 fave loses, your 40 cent fave hits, you lose 100, collect 71, you lose money either way.
If both lose, you are out the full monty.
Now if you bet the 30 center with the 40 center in a two team parlay, risking 100 gets you 195 back.
If one of thre two loses in your parlay loses, which will happen 6 out of 10 times, you are out the 100.
A couple of years ago 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.
When parlay wageringing to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.
If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. I say "most likely" because I have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. That's about 1.25 a win.
The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.
You cut your losses with the parlay, then you would betting heavy faves s/u
There is value there.
You would knowDamn Nash you just got dicked. How did that taste?
Who's ghost are you anyway?Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.
If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.
This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.
First round goes to nash on my card. Will we ever see a rebuttal?
This is how we will handle this.
His quote:
Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.
If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.
My response:
Your first mistake is coming into my house and telling me I don't understand math.
Your second mistake, pretty ballsy one too, is to tell me to don't try to justify it.
What do you think, I am going to take your cheap sucker shot and lay down?
First off I am mainly a spot dog player, mixing in short faves and pick 'em games.
I will from time to time play two team parlays using two faves.
Now I will justify it using math and showing you the work.
In the past 20 years, favorties have won a little over 61 percent of all baseball games. Fact!
If you were hitting 60 percent in basketball or football you would be crushing it. But that's laying 11-10.
Baseball is a game bet with money lines, there is no point spread, the money line is a tool sportsbooks use to the house advantage.
A good method to overcome this house advantage is to parlay two favorites.
A good baseball 'capper that wins 62 percent, and there are plenty, can show a 40 pecent ROI using the parlay.
You won't win as many parlay wagers, but you get better value than betting each one s/u
Let's say you like a -140 game and a -130 game.
Straight betting, you bet 100 on each
The 40 cent fave misses, the 30 cent fave hits.
You lose 100 on the 40 cent fave, you collect 77 dollars on the 30 cent fave, reverse it, your 30 fave loses, your 40 cent fave hits, you lose 100, collect 71, you lose money either way.
If both lose, you are out the full monty.
Now if you bet the 30 center with the 40 center in a two team parlay, risking 100 gets you 195 back.
If one of thre two loses in your parlay loses, which will happen 6 out of 10 times, you are out the 100.
A couple of years ago 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.
When parlay wageringing to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.
If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. I say "most likely" because I have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. That's about 1.25 a win.
The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.
You cut your losses with the parlay, then you would betting heavy faves s/u
There is value there.
What'a going to happen is to avoid further ghosts and trollers from trying to get under my skin is to make this thread pro status only access.First round goes to nash on my card. Will we ever see a rebuttal?
I feel you nash. Never understood why people who seem to be genuinely nice guys and post great info get bashed on. Haters going to hate I guess. Let me know if you want me to run security here for you.What'a going to happen is to avoid further ghosts and trollers from trying to get under my skin is to make this thread pro status only access.
^
Yeah, what ya going to do though?
OK, I got a play I like tonight, will write it up later.
Enough nonsense.
Last edited by stevenash; 04-01-14 at 09:47 AM.
If you are referring to what ya going to do about haters? Nothing. Just keep it moving we all know what is what.^
Yeah, what ya going to do though?
If you are referring to me running security I have a strong syndicate with Mitchy, Cuse, and Mr. Gold. We will have no problem making this guys life hell for you. You are one of the good ones. We can get his computer out of order within the hour. I'll call the boys.
