Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

New York YankeesDavid Robertson Assumes Closer Role

After three strong seasons an eight-inning setup man, Robertson finally will take over full time as the Yankees closer. The 28 year-old had another strong season in 2014 pitching to a 2.04 ERA, 2.61 FIP, and 2.60 xFIP in 66.1 innings pitched. Even though he unfairly carried a reputation of unable to close games during his brief tenure as the closer in 2012 when Mariano Rivera was injured, Robertson is as qualified as anyone to take over the duties in 2014. His reverse-platoon split (3.32 FIP against RHH; 2.19 FIP against LHH) and strikeout ability (10.45 K/9 in 2013) are important components. There are some concerns with his velocity and swinging strike rate dropping in each of the last three seasons, but his ground ball rate also improved to a career best 50 percent in 2013. With improved control (2.48 BB/9 in 2013), he should be able to rack up plenty of saves and strikeouts.

Projecting Ivan NovaNova put together the best season of his career in 2013 pitching to a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 innings pitched. Both his FIP (3.47) and xFIP (3.68) were also favorable and the lowest rates of his career. As expected Nova's numbers improved with his HR/FB ratio regressing from 16.6 to 8.4 percent along with getting his ground ball rate back above 50 percent (53.5 percent). Nova is one of the few pitchers who has improved with limiting his repertoire, as he stopped throwing his slider and barely used his change-up last season. Nova will be a solid back end starter for owners in standard leagues, but he is more likely to post an ERA closer to his 2011 season (3.70). He benefitted from an above average strand rate last year (79.5 percent), and I would not be surprised to see a few more home runs leave the park in 2014.

Steve,

Are Baez and Olt going to be up with the Cubs to start the season?

They need to trade Barney and/or Valbuena...

Would love to see an Olt, Castro, Baez, Rizzo infield...

They are putting pieces together!

nasher, what's your fanduel name?

Originally Posted by EXhoosier10

nasher, what's your fanduel name?

I pm'ed you that information.

Originally Posted by iifold

Steve,

Are Baez and Olt going to be up with the Cubs to start the season?

They need to trade Barney and/or Valbuena...

Would love to see an Olt, Castro, Baez, Rizzo infield...

They are putting pieces together!

Olt is hurt
Baez should break camp and go north as role player.

David Murphy (OF - CLE). Murphy signed with Cleveland as a free agent after a horribly disappointing final season in Texas, in which Murphy slashed a weak .220/.282/.374. Murphy should post better numbers in 2014, given that his BA was dragged down by a .227 BABIP, which was almost 80 points lower than his career rate. Murphy's other peripherals (12.4% K rate, .154 ISO, 19.3 line drive % and 9.2% HR/FB rate) were generally in line with his career numbers, so his results in 2013 can be summed up simply as bad luck on balls in play.

While some improvement can therefore be expected in Murphy's 2014 results (we project him to hit .275/.345/.443 with 14 HR and 70 RBI), there are several warning signs that should temper enthusiasm for Murphy. One is the apparent disappearance of his speed game (10 SBs in 2012 and only 1 in 2013), coupled with the fact that he will now be playing for a manager who ranks as one of the more conservative with respect to the run game. Another is the fact that he is moving to a less hitter-favorable home park. Finally, Murphy is expected to platoon with Ryan Raburn in the Indian outfield and, although he will be on the strong side of the platoon, this will limit his counting stat production. All-in-all Murphy is probably not draft-worthy in mixed leagues, although he should be considered in AL-only and extremely deep mixed leagues.

Asdrubal Cabrera (SS - CLE). Cabrera will be an interesting case study in 2014. Is he the player who slashed .273/.332/.460 with 25 HR in 2011 or the one who fell off to .242/.299/.402 in 2013. The answer is probably somewhere in between. Cabrera's 2011 power numbers were the result of a likely unrepeatable 13.3% HR/FB rate (the only time Cabrera has exceeded a 10% rate in his career. On the other hand, Cabrera's BA in 2013 was suppressed by a .283 BABIP, which is 30 points lower than his career average. What, then, to expect in 2014? We project Cabrera to post a .265/.317/.442 line in 2014, with 16 HR and 10 SB. There is the possibility that Cabrera could post even better power numbers, though. He has shown a steadily increasing FB rate over the last three years and even a slight uptick in HR/FB rate could add 2 or 3 HR to Cabrera's total. Cabrera's counting stats in 2013 were also negatively impacted by the fact that he missed almost a month with a torn quad muscle. Given the relative dearth of power at the SS position, Cabrera is an attractive target after the elite shortstop options are off the board and could in fact be a bargain given his current 15.04 ADP.

Great thread, great info.

Chapman took a wicked shot to the face on Wednesday and will undergo surgery to repair fractures to his nose and left eye on Thursday. "The hard-throwing left-hander was struck by Salvador Perez's drive with two outs in the sixth inning. He crumbled to the ground, face down and flailing his legs. The ball caromed into the third-base dugout. Medical personnel, including Royals team doctor Vincent Key, rushed to the pitcher. Chapman's father was among the people to run onto the field." The Reds will likely be auditioning a Hoover, Broxton and Marshall in the 10 days leading to the season's opener, with JJ Hoover the front runner to close games in April and May.

Originally Posted by stevenash

Olt is hurt
Baez should break camp and go north as role player.

Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs:

The #7 prospect in all of baseball has had a sensational spring that has earned him playing time at shortstop along with third and second base. It has now become apparent that the Cubs are going to find a place for Baez to play in the majors at some point this year. Baez has power at the shortstop position that we have not seen in a long time, maybe since Alex Rodriguez was playing with the Mariners. Across two levels last year, Baez launched 40 homers and stole 20 bases including half a year in AA where he had an absurd .343 ISO. Since 2012, the lowest ISO he recorded was .213 and that was in just 23 games. If you have room in normal mixed leagues, Baez should be up by mid-season if you want to stash him on your bench. For dynasty and keeper leagues, he is a must draft as he has the potential to be one up the best bats up the middle in the big leagues.

Good stuff Nasher, what are your thoughts on the potential return of the Grady Sizemore phenomena? Curious as to how his fantasy stock is being viewed now(though not a fantasy player due to time constraints).

By all accounts, Dee Gordon has won the starting second base job over Alex Guerrero. Both have traveled to Australia for the two-game series against Arizona, but that is likely due to MLB's granting of a 30-man roster for the trip. Back stateside, we should expect Guerrero to open in Double-A Chattanooga a la Yasiel Puig last year. Should Guerrero fare well early, he could quickly put Gordon's starting status at risk. Guerrero is batting a healthy (and even) .300/.400/.500 in 30 spring at-bats to Gordon's .286/.326/.476, but this may be more about where each player is defensively.


Both are new to the position, but Gordon appears to be taking to second base quicker, at least so far. If Guerrero can show progress defensively and hit close to .300 in the minors, he should be up in short order. For now though, Gordon carries a fair amount of NL-only and deeper mixed league value for his stolen base prowess. To further muddle the situation Justin Turner will get the opening day start against lefty Wade Miley, it appears that Gordon will be in a platoon situation, but as a LHH he should still see plenty of opportunities until Guerrero takes a step up defensively.

Originally Posted by odog11

Good stuff Nasher, what are your thoughts on the potential return of the Grady Sizemore phenomena? Curious as to how his fantasy stock is being viewed now(though not a fantasy player due to time constraints).

Been a baseball junkie my whole life, since I was six.
When Sizemore was breaking in with the Indians, before Mike Trout was Mike Trout, there was Grady Sizemore.
Speedy gold glove caliber outfielder with speed to spare, that hit with power, pretty much your not everyday five tool player.
(well 4.5 tools, he's only a .270 hitter, but very nice OBA)

From 2006-2008, he put up mind boggling across the board numbers, he became my very favortie major leaguer, well, him and Mike Mussina.

Sizemore scored 134 runs in 2006

In 2008 his slash line was 33-90 .278/.374/.502
He stole 38 bases to go with those 33 homers.
He won a gold glove in center that year too, (and 2007)
He was my MVP in 2008, Pedroia won it, but he had a Mike Trout year that year, well like I said, he was Trout before Trout.
Trout hits .320 though, where as Grady hits .270, everything else they do pretty much equally.

The he got hurt, the he got hurt again.
Now he's healthy again, and he's loving life and tearing it up in Florida, and as a huge fan of him, I love it.

Brilliant signing by Boston, utter brilliance.
Low risk, high reward for both sides, if Grady does what he used to do, he gets a boat load of money in incentives.

He's not old, he's only 31, remember, he's so good he got signed out of HS, never played college ball, went straight to the big show out of HS.

Love his lefty swing.
Two knocks, he will strike out a little too much, and he only hits .270-.280, if you have a problem with that, and considering he does everything else pretty much better than everybody else, I wouldn't have a problem if he hits .260, he gets on base and scores runs. Batting average isn't everything.

Mediocre batting average, high OBA, hits homers, drives in runs, a run scoring maching and a stolen base threat with a gold glove in the outfield.
Enough said, well that and the fact he's 9 for 25 so far this spring, there, now enough said.

Oakland Athletics assistant general manager David Forst said the team won't look outside the organization for starting pitching help now that SP Jarrod Parker (elbow) is out for the season and SP A.J. Griffin (elbow) will miss more than a month with flexor tendonitis. SPs Tommy Milone and Jesse Chavez will enter the rotation.

The worst case for Parker turned out to be the actual case, as his visit to Dr. Andrews confirmed on March 17. Jesse Chavez' role and outlook continue to expand, as do Tommy Milone's. Per local reports, Chavez has surpassed Milone in OAK's depth chart, and appears likely to get the lion's share of the additional starts vacated by Parker. Meanwhile, with Griffin out at least a month and possibly more, Milone's projected role has increased as well. As we recently wrote, Chavez is a better fanalytic bet right now than Milone, given his significant skills improvement since going to a cutter as his main pitch. Milone is still just league-average, but he'll be getting more IP now if that helps your team. Also look for Dan Straily and Sonny Gray to perhaps log a few more innings than they might have with Parker and Griffin healthy.

Originally Posted by El Nino

Royals' Luke Hochevar going under the knife for Tommy John. Huge hit for that Royals bullpen.

Not a killer. I am expecting a move here, the Royals are lefty heavy. Hochevar may have overachieved last year.

My assessment of the Royals is that they will be hugely improved offensively this year and will be in position to be a buyer closer to the deadline.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10...nt-miss-season

Bad loss for Tigers, with no depth.