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10% Chance We Go To War With Russia

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#110

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Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
if we go to war with anyone it will be mexico
That would be fukkin tragic.

I can see jj on the front lines getting splattered with jalapeno paint. There goes my hero, he gave all for country, he gave all for Shari.
Last edited by ByeShea; 03-03-14 at 08:06 AM.
#112

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Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
Monday's news: Russian central bank raising rates, ruble hits all-time lows, and Russian stock market off 10% and counting.

And the fighting hasn't even started yet.
this is a standard flow of things when a country is on a brink of a war with a neighboring country
go look at some historic market reactions to any of the wars that US has been involved to
#113

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Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
this is a standard flow of things when a country is on a brink of a war with a neighboring country
go look at some historic market reactions to any of the wars that US was involved to
rocket is right anytime that a country is in the situation with a neighboring or any country the currency moves
#114

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Kerry is such a puppet I guess it's easy to forget things like US invading Iraq over fake intel on weapons of mass distraction

"You just don’t invade another country on phony pretext in order to assert your interests,” John Kerry said during an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press. “This is an act of aggression that is completely trumped up in terms of its pretext. It’s really 19th century behaviour in the 21st century.”
“There could be certainly disruption of any of the normal trade routine, there could be business drawback on investment in the country,” he continued. “There could even be ultimately asset freezes, **** bans.”
#115

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Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
this is a standard flow of things when a country is on a brink of a war with a neighboring country
go look at some historic market reactions to any of the wars that US has been involved to
When the US goes to war the stock market rallies - it doesn't tank. Bad sign, bro. Russia now off 12% and counting.
#116

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Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
When the US goes to war the stock market rallies - it doesn't tank. Bad sign, bro. Russia now off 12% and counting.
you obviously know very little about stock markets so I'm not gonna argue with you

here is just one example:
before the Korean War, which started in 1950. When it became clear that the West would have to go to the aid of South Korea to defend it from communist troops in the north, share prices fell in the US by 13 per cent

most of the times when the war is in your own backyard, market has nowhere to go but down
a big selloff usually follows by a big rally when things become clear on what the countries involved are planning to do in terms of use of force

Here is the record across the last 100 years, the chart below shows closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in New York for the ten working days before and after eight war onsets (the value on the day itself is omitted).




  • September 11, 2001: Al-Qaeda attacks American cities
  • August 2, 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait
  • August 7, 1964: Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
  • June 25, 1950: North Korea invades South Korea
  • December 7, 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor
  • September 1, 1939: Germany invades Poland
  • March 1, 1917: The Zimmermann telegram published
  • June 25, 1914: Russia mobilizes against Germany


Only two of these events saw stock prices climb, and then only slightly. In five cases they fell, and in two the stock market was closed (for more than four months after the outbreak of World War I in Europe, and for four days after 9/11).
Last edited by Russian Rocket; 03-03-14 at 09:32 AM.
#118

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Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
you obviously know very little about stock markets so I'm not gonna argue with you
You're right. Worked as a clerk on the New York Stock Exchange, then 15 years trading equity institutionally - what the fuk would I know about a stock market?

That's why I got into marketing hedge funds. I'll let clients sweat volatility while I dik around on sites like SBR.

And I'll leave stock market expertise to you, pal. Besides the Russian stock market just lost 11% in a single trading session - why would that bother a Russian peasant anyway?
Last edited by ByeShea; 03-03-14 at 10:08 AM.