Maybe I'm letting the cat out of the bag with this betting strategy...

but the sharpest bettors play the exchanges and Pinnacle

I'm not talking about betting steam, but if there is a discrepancy in odds between these books and the rest, how about fading the better odds at those sharp player books?

For example:

Team A has a significant ml offer of +260 at matchbook, which is at least 15-20 cents higher than rec books

Bet the other side at a USA out

Think this is a good strategy?

Hmmm

Mmmm

nope

ok thanks

why not?

Why don't you test it out?

Originally Posted by TheCentaur

but the sharpest bettors play the exchanges and Pinnacle

I'm not talking about betting steam, but if there is a discrepancy in odds between these books and the rest, how about fading the better odds at those sharp player books?

For example:

Team A has a significant ml offer of +260 at matchbook, which is at least 15-20 cents higher than rec books

Bet the other side at a USA out

Think this is a good strategy?

The sharpest bettors also lose. These guys can go 54% and make a killing. An average bettor on sbr can go broke in no time with 54% picks because they don't have the discipline to stay in the game long term.

depends what the price of the other side USA out actually is...just because a ML on a dog is 15 cents higher on matchbook than say what you find at that moment at bookmaker does not make it a +EV at bookmaker at all. ... it might...but watching exchanges and offers and what is actually taken or not is intersting and can be useful.

Does not work

Streaky

Pinny leans don't work

+EV does not work

Isn't this a slight variation of betting steam?

Originally Posted by TheCentaur

but the sharpest bettors play the exchanges and Pinnacle

I'm not talking about betting steam, but if there is a discrepancy in odds between these books and the rest, how about fading the better odds at those sharp player books?

For example:

Team A has a significant ml offer of +260 at matchbook, which is at least 15-20 cents higher than rec books

Bet the other side at a USA out

Think this is a good strategy?

Maybe you can ask your girlfriend Shari. What did you guys do the 5 months you were gone from the forum?

Nobody would work if a betting system was effective

Originally Posted by Blax0r

Isn't this a slight variation of betting steam?

I guess kind of

But this isn't a number move that other books follow

It's a noticeable lean, especially at matchbook, that smart money is willing to approach an offer that is much better than a rec book because the bet is so good for them

Ex:
rec books have a moneyline of +270/-320 on a game

Matchbook has offers of +300/-320

This means that matchbook money is willing to eat commission and offer someone +300 on the underdog (well above what rec books offer) because they want action on the favorite

The reverse is also true:

Sometimes with for example the same line +270/-320, there is an offer of -280

This means smart matchbook money is willing to eat commission and offer much better odds for you to take the favorite so they can get down on the underdog

centy you know im at fukkin drifters every goddamm tuesday night

centy why the fuk havent you shared this nugget with me

centy lets go play some golden tee so i can warm up pal

Originally Posted by InTheDrink

centy you know im at fukkin drifters every goddamm tuesday night

centy why the fuk havent you shared this nugget with me

centy lets go play some golden tee so i can warm up pal

golden tee- what a great game