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#541

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who kows even the perma-"due" BlowJays seem as likely as not to hit on a "stopped watch" big-dog (+150ish) auto-bet tomorrow...

August MLB is a lot like the last month of all the US-team-sports...all of which have regular seasons that go on far longer than necessary...relegating an increasingly-large number of games to the damn-near-"uncappable" scrap-heap (as the fundamental assumption that both teams give highest priority to the goal of winning the game under consideration can no longer be counted on) ...giving us lots of nice-money far-nearer-to-coin-flips-than-the-odds-imply...

"getting hip" to the different "games within the games" of the last few weeks' schedule...and betting accordingly...is the key...with +odds as available as they were earlier in the year...but with increasing emphasis on "preparation for playoffs" and less on "winning tonight's game"...we get games that are increasingly closer to coin-tosses going off at book-odds still-largely-based on decreasingly-valid motivational-assumptions...

the result=market imperfection (aka fuktup odds) to exploit...recipe: flatter'n'lower than normal bets on carefully-selected increasingly-dog-rich plays
Last edited by fitguy67; 08-22-13 at 05:01 AM.
#550

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1-0 +1.11u

8/24

Washington Nationals (-114) 1.14u 5Dimes

YTD
151-142-2 +20.09u

Quietly steam rolling through August. 27-12-1 69.23% +20.57u. Zimmermann has been so-so on the road but he's hands down a better pitcher than Davis. Davis will get hit, he carries a 1.60 WHIP at home this season. Davis has a 3.85 BB/9 and a batting average of balls in play of .376. The Nats put up 11 tonight and averaged over 5 runs/game in the series before with the Cubs. Davis is the perfect candidate to get teed off on.

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#555

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8/25

San Diego Padres Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) 1.2u BookMaker

YTD
152-142-2 +21.09u

Late start to the capping. Didn't see a whole lot that stood out in the early games. Had a lean on the Braves, but passed when I saw their lineup. May have a Sunday night play. For this play, the Padres have some of the best offensive #'s against lefties all year long, great power #'s as well. The Cubs trot out Rusin, their spot starting, soft tossing lefty. He has only gone more than 6 innings once this season usually gives up 2 or 3ER. Pads get 2 or 3 off of him and then get 2 or 3 innings of the Cubs' pen.