Originally posted on 09/17/2023:

Playing: 272 TAMPA BAY BUCS -2.5 (1.93). $100 to win 93.

...I like this #. Laying < a FG, and the juice is < -110.
...There is some public sentiment on the Bears as a Dog. Especially with the Bears off a loss as Fav and the Bucs now a Fav off a Dog win.
...The Khicks writeup last week was good. The matchup Bucs at Vikes wasn't worthy of a 6-pt margin. And the markets picked up on that.
...I don't care for the Bears at all. Fields had a good statistical season in 2022. Sure, he was playing from behind virtually every game.
...When they traded LB Roquan Smith last year, mgmt was telling you they don't care.
...One specific bias I'm playing into on the Bucs. It's the QB change.
...I spoke to one Buc fan in passing in August. He said "Don't expect much this year." Specifically, I think that ties to the QB change. Brady was pulling a check in 2022 and just a name. As much as people hate Mayfield, he'll probably be an upgrade in 2023. And we get more good WR matchups again today.

Good Luck, everyone.