Originally Posted by
KVB
Wow these seem too easy.
I have a predicted score of Arizona winning 41-24 over Baltimore. It's no surprise the line has grown, perhaps too much, and that there is pressure on the Over.
The market gives me reason to believe my forecast will split against the posted spread and Totals, if they produce a bet when compared to the offered price.
Despite the current line movement my forecast triggers a bet on Arizona but actually does not, in this instance, trigger a bet on the Total for certain, more disciplined, sharp metrics.
For tonight's issue, there is a significant difference between 48 and 49 points and opening at the higher 49 is still acceptable to the books as they are still getting some over pressure, but may cause some bettors to pass.
This potential pass for those bettors, sitting them on the sidelines, leads me to believe the books are seeking an Over here.
My metrics indicate this game may be more about the Total story than the side and moneyline. They also indicate that an Under tonight will lead future opportunity so, once again, a bet on the Over could be warranted.
Tonight's game has done a good job of splitting a lot of metrics and bettors. Overall, don't be afraid to pass on this game.
MNF POLL : Ravens at Cardinals : Nominated Post
