Originally Posted by
brewers7
This is a basic example, yes...There are obviously many more levels involved for each team in every game...Many, many more...
I'll give you one that applies to tonight's Spurs/Pistons game in the NBA...
The "New Coach's first game angle"...
Now I may have missed one somewhere (I hope not), but over the last 3 NBA and NFL seasons, when a new coach takes over their first game in the middle of the season, their teams have gone 11-2 ATS in those 2 sports combined...It was 11-1 until the Houston Texans lost this past December 15th after Gary Kubiak was fired the day after a THUR night game...But the Texans were such a mess that I didn't even touch that game despite the angle/trend...So many injuries...The other Not Cover was also another unique situation where Mike Brown of the Lakers was fired 2 Novembers ago after the Lakers started 1-4, but new Coach Mike D'Antoni was recovering from knee surgery and couldn't take the sidelines until 4 games later and the Lakers DID WIN that game for D'Antoni at Home, but they they didn't cover the 6.5 point spread as they won by 5...
People may remember when Romeo Crenell took over as Chiefs head coach in December of 2011 (12/18/11) and as 13-point dogs, they beat the undefeated Packers straight up, ending their 19-game winning streak and ending their perfect season that year...The last NBA coach to be fired midseason was Alvin Gentry, who was fired last January, and the Suns won their next game by 10 as 3-point dogs...I don't think anybody else got fired after him until a bunch of coaches got fired after the season ended...
I would also argue you can add 4 more games from 2012 in the NFL to this tally from the past 3 years where teams rose up to win games...
When Chuck Pagano took a 12-week leave of absence in September of 2012, the Colts won their first game that Bruce Arians filled in for him as head coach, 30-27 over the Packers as 6-point dogs after being down 18 at halftime of that game...And when Pagano returned later in the season on DEC 30 as 6.5 dogs, they won outright by 12 over the Texans...Also that season, when Jerry Brown of the Cowboys died in a car accident, Dallas won their next game outright at Cincinnati as a 3.5 point underdog...And when Jovan Belcher of the Chiefs committed suicide after killing his girlfriend, the Chiefs won their next game outright against Carolina as 5.5 Dogs...
If you count these 4 games, that's another 4-0 to this angle where "teams rise up" for a new coach (or those 2 Chuck-Strong examples) or for a fallen teammate who died or was killed within days of an upcoming game...
So Maurice Cheeks was fired by the Pistons yesterday so one of my many, many, many situational trends states that "you take the team whose coach just got fired to win their first game for their new coach"...I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe this trend/angle/situational spot is either 8-1 or 7-1 ATS the last 8 or 9 instances in the NBA...So the Pistons would be the play tonight...
These recent percentages with this angle do NOT guarantee a win by the Pistons...No situational trend is full-proof or "guaranteed"...
But obviously I will be looking very strongly at a play on the Pistons tonight as I have been on every one of these situations the last 3 NBA and NFL seasons I mentioned EXCEPT the Texans (because of the plethora of injuries they had), so that is about 15-1 the last 16 plays I made on this situation if you count the NFL games the past 3 seasons...
I will admit I am going to play the Pistons tonight...So if I lose this game, ok, well, I go to 15-2 the last 17 times I played this trend...If people seeing this post decide to play the Pistons tonight and lose, they will be 0-1 following this angle and will get p*ssed and call this style of capping "junk science" or some other names...
I am just passing on one small example of situational handicapping as I do track coaching changes in my database...
