NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

Originally Posted by JMon

Nothing for me tonight. Few leans, but nothing strong enough

GL fellas...and great contribution recently

I'm on this one today, but only a half unit as it's a scenario that's overfit and based off of ATS streaks and happens to feature pretty spectacularly shitty teams...all three of which aren't things I like to play on, but it's been winning so why not.

Plus it works for the Under as well as the Spread pick for more action. Can't remember where it came from, looks like a cofaga special though :

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006

U lost me at "0=12"

Hi all,

Both of these trends are admittedly biased and have small sample sizes. Returns conflicting results for the ATS pick, but both favor the over. Probably a no bet for me but figured I'd share to confirm that these trends are not reliable. (Still learning!)


tS(U, N=9)>= 8 and total>=201 and HD


tS(A,N=5)>=5 and HD and rest <=1 and line <4 and total>200

Thanks!

Originally Posted by hyahya

U lost me at "0=12"

Whoops, typo, edited it and now it's correct:

Edit: Damn, still wrong, something about the copy/paste. One sec

Edit 2: Ok, working once I put spaces into the part of the query the board had trouble with:

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006

For the lurkers or inexperienced: Remove the spaces in the second half of the query above around the red letters/symbols, starting at the "and 0 < o: ats streak" area. First time I've seen that, no idea why it happened. So any red symbol or letter in the query above, remove the space in front or behind it.

Originally Posted by TheLuckFactor

Both of these trends are admittedly biased and have small sample sizes. Returns conflicting results for the ATS pick, but both favor the over. Probably a no bet for me but figured I'd share to confirm that these trends are not reliable. (Still learning!)

tS(U, N=9)>= 8 and total>=201 and HD

tS(A,N=5)>=5 and HD and rest <=1 and line <4 and total>200

The second one is interesting to me. I like the concept of a small dog at home getting points with no rest after being away for ages and how that would conflict with the public bettor's mind and thus the corresponding line adjustment (value).

Worth looking into and seeing if we can expand it to a larger sample.

Sorry Mako, i have been trying this one AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006 like you said, taking out the spaces but I keep getting an error reading.

Originally Posted by FortySix

Sorry Mako, i have been trying this one AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o: ats streak < 3 and line > = 12 and season>=2006 like you said, taking out the spaces but I keep getting an error reading.

It works, just tested it, but you have to remove ONLY the spaces that were artificially entered. NOT the spaces that every single SDQL query always has. Use your head in other words and leave the spaces that have to be there of course.

SO: take out the spaces before and after the "<" symbols, take out the spaces around the "=" sign, take out the space after the "o:", you know, typical SDQL language typed the proper way.

LEAVE the spaces around the logical areas where typically SDQL queries always have spaces (around the "and" obviously, in between parameters, etc). It's just a few spaces, no other way to describe it.

Have never seen SBR's software do this before, no clue why (this is not related to the smiley spaces glitch we've already worked around for those lurking).

Testing the previous query to identify a board post workaround, ignore:

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0=12 and season>=2006

Test 2:

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0=12 and season>=2006

Test 3:

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0=12 and season>=2006

Yeah no idea why, just tried to Go Advanced and disable the automatic HTML parsing the board does (along with smileys) for posting but none of it worked, all mangled the query the same way.

It doesn't like the way we define the ats streak parameter for SDQL for some reason, that particular "and < o: ats streak < 3" phrase (but without the spaces around the symbols and colon obviously).

Luckily we don't use it much but what a pain in the ass when we do.

Testing again, first with the spaces: < o:ats streak<3 and line>

Now without:

Ok, the specific error the board has lies in the < symbol when followed without a space by the o: symbol. That screwed up the whole query in the board, so here it is with just that one single space added (you must remove it to cut and past into SDQL):

AD and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0< o:ats streak<3 and line>=12 and season>=2006

There we go. So to get the board to post it right I had to add a space after the red < symbol above. Take out that space and the query works in SDQL. It only seems to occur with that specific issue, a < or > symbol directly followed by the o:

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Here's a nice one I've been using that is active on the Bulls/Heat game today (bet the over).

Premise behind it is that you're catching a team that usually doesn't have strong offense after a game in which they established a rhythm and scored far more points than was expected...and that the higher ouput will then continue the next game to push it over the predicted total:

AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006

Sorry I'm late, this was from page 3 but just a few questions as I'm still learning.

1. How are you capturing the "usually doesn't have strong offense" part?

2. If the basis is that a team's unusually high output will continue the next game, do the query results hold up in normal B2B situations, or what's the significance of using away dogs coming off home wins? I know that was the situation that given day with the Bulls and Heat but I'm wondering if the theory is supported more generally. Does home/away or previous win/loss matter? Isn't the p:dps the main factor?

Geez, thanks for the heads up mako

Originally Posted by parlayin

Sorry I'm late, this was from page 3 but just a few questions as I'm still learning.

1. How are you capturing the "usually doesn't have strong offense" part?

2. If the basis is that a team's unusually high output will continue the next game, do the query results hold up in normal B2B situations, or what's the significance of using away dogs coming off home wins? I know that was the situation that given day with the Bulls and Heat but I'm wondering if the theory is supported more generally. Does home/away or previous win/loss matter? Isn't the p:dps the main factor?

Good Qs!

For #1, it's the dps result in that previous game being so much higher than was expected from the team (see the KillerSports dot com NBA SDQL Manual .pdf for more information on dps, or for the lurkers trying to learn, any info about SDQL queries. I'd link it but SBR doesn't allow external links so Google it).

For #2, momentum is the general answer, but all of the various permutations you're suggesting can be explored in SDQL itself with a little effort if you're interested. Run a variety of scenarios and report your results back to us, you may improve that query considerably.

Originally Posted by JMon

Geez, thanks for the heads up mako

Tell me about it, I want that half hour of my life back...

p:H and P:margin<=-15 and AD and 60>o:WP>50 and conference=o:conference and (rest>0 and o:rest>0) and game number>=42

Seems like a solid play to me, lemme know what you guys think (on the over play)

I like the chances of a team being a bit underrated by bookies, because of recent poor performance:

p:ats margin<0 and 10<=p:line<=13 and 11<=line<=13

Principle mostly the same:

p:L and pp:L and -1<=line<=1 and rest=0 and o:WP<43 and A