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Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

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#8056

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Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Gonzo View Post
Most people with a betting IQ are aware of all those I would think.

I wouldn't want juicefair as my only out.
Betfair minus commission is still better than majority of bookmakers. Okay so u open an account unless ur gf and then the account wins and they limit it. Then what? I bet/lay horses= even with the commission i could get even 10-20% more than any other bookies
#8057

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Quote Originally Posted by h3da View Post
Betfair minus commission is still better than majority of bookmakers. Okay so u open an account unless ur gf and then the account wins and they limit it. Then what? I bet/lay horses= even with the commission i could get even 10-20% more than any other bookies
Look how many corporates there are, that's alot of accounts to go through. What about when she gets limited? Her best friend. If you throw some small change her way she'll think you're doing her a favor.

I agree betfair is a valuable tool for horse players but I really don't agree with you as far as undervaluing the competitiveness of the market, your assertion is circumstantial.
#8059

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I mostly stick to MLs, Spreads and Totals. Never been limited by Aussie books with NRL or NBA, and I withdraw regularly too. Back when I was making large plays, 1-2k bets with Centrebet would go through without any problems. But don't trust them anymore after they tried to stop a withdrawal. Lately they seem to have lowered their limits on US sports.

I avoid hitting Sportsbet's soft lines too hard, they're my favourite Aussie book, always pay out quickly and would rather keep them on my side.

Betfair has flaws but they're the best for large plays if the market is deep enough. They don't care as long as you stay under $20k exposure.
Last edited by MrXYZ; 08-21-13 at 07:04 AM.
#8060

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Quote Originally Posted by h3da View Post
lol why would I lie? We've got alot of people who try to use different aliases and many get caught and accounts closed off. Other bookmakers may work differently as they have different systems to catch people deliberately avoiding. Most corporates hate clients betting on props due to how small the market is.
I can confirm I tried using my dad's name and Sportsbet rang me, and when my dad answered the phone they knew straight away he was not the account bettor, and asked to speak to me. After I reluctantly admitted I opened the account under his name to bet, they obviously then proceeded to close my/dad's account.
Last edited by locsports; 08-21-13 at 11:43 AM.
#8062

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Quote Originally Posted by h3da View Post
Oh and they watch especially accounts under female names who seems to know what they are doing. Good luck when they ring to inquire about your bets. Account closed due to fraud and only initial deposit refunded.
Bunch of misogynists. "Women should be cooking and doing the laundry, not capping AFL player props".

And Sando was right when he said the bookies were watching this thread, they're starting to panic. Keep it up boys (and girls).
Last edited by Grunch; 08-21-13 at 03:28 PM.
#8063

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Quote Originally Posted by Grunch View Post
Bunch of misogynists. "Women should be cooking and doing the laundry, not capping AFL player props".

And Sando was right when he said the bookies were watching this thread, they're starting to panic. Keep it up boys (and girls).
Bookies know that its mostly their bf using the account. Woman would only have small bets on friday night games for example- first try scorer, head to head.
#8064

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Gonna hammer the NRL again this week, lot's of games I like. At work all day, quiet day so lots of time to "put in real work".

Melbourne -27.5 (v Parra) madness right? The sort of lines that are only usually seen in the Super League? You thought the Roosters -24.5 (v Wests Tigers) was crazy last week? Well before anyone starts with the "Parra +27.5 is an auto-play" ask yourself this - if you could create a doomsday type matchup right now with current form and injuries taken into account, would there be any scenario worse than this current Parra team (based on form and injuries) having to travel to Aami and play this current Storm team (based on red hot form and no significant injuries other than Widdop)? I don't think so. For me everything hangs on whether Hayne plays or not - yes he is that important. I don't think he will, why bother when Parra knows they will lose the game and why risk their one and only superstar, however will not commit to Melbourne until confirmation that the Hayne plane is grounded.
#8066

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Ditto - why would you play Hayne in this spot? I like Melbourne to rack the points up here, they are 25 points behind Manly in differential, and given Manly plays Melbourne at BO - a winnable game - they could end up even and it be decided on points difference. So I think Storm will be happy to put on 40+ against Parra.
#8069

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NRL

Got one early play that I should share now so that anyone who is interested can grab the best line. Only Bet365 is still offering the -4, however can get -2.5 @ $1.77 (Sportsbet/IAS) -3.5 @ $1.78 (Centrebet/Sportingbet) and -4.5 @ $1.97 (Pinnacle). I like this play up to -5.5 (although for a smaller stake, maybe 1-1.5 units).

Two rather evenly matched teams on paper, both have been in good form recently. Bizarrely the Knights have been playing better on the road than at home (where they have been woeful). Since coach Henry's sacking, the Cowboys have been playing the way many of us expected them to all season. They are 3-0 and averaging 29.6ppg, whilst only conceding 8.6ppg, and this is against decent opposition in the Rabbitohs, Titans and Panthers. Cowboys with a slight advantage in the forwards, although Tamou has been playing on reputation this year and is below his best. He will not play for Australia this year (Fifita should claim his spot) although he does still form the best front row in the NRL with the ever reliable Matt Scott. Big Willie would really be useful for the Knights in this game, however it should be noted that Snowden is a beast and in great form. Knights with a slight advantage across the 3/4 line, however the Cowboys Brent Tate is in fine form and more importantly Matty Bowen is also/finally in great form. The Cowboys at their best have always been about the 1-2 punch that is JT-Bowen. The halves are where the biggest discrepancy lies, as Mullen and Roberts are "serviceable" for the Knights whereas post-origin JT could lay claim as to being the best player in the game and most definitely the best play-maker. Both teams with plenty to play for, no extra motivation for either. The Cowboys (like the Warriors) are a big momentum team and when they are rolling can beat anyone, as the Rabbitohs found out.The Cowboys were horrible last week and yet still covered the line against a Titans team that always plays them tough. Would expect a significant improvement across the board this week, guaranteed they have been running skills drills all week at training. Cowboys are only 5-5 at home this season, however they are still 12-6 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and this is a vastly different team over the last month, more like last years Cowboys than the first 20 rounds of this season. Cowboys at home now with a very real chance to make the finals (genuine motivation) and in great form (big time momentum team) are at least a converted try better than a talented but very inconsistent Knights team.
2* Cowboys -4 ($1.95 Bet365)
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#8070

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Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post
Been looking at Matchbook - lines are no better than Pinny's, and even less markets, why do people use them?
both Matchbook and Marathon are very nice generally-unappreciated but very-valuable outs to have cf. Pinny...

if you could only have one book, no question that book'd have to be Pinny...but you CAN and SHOULD have more than one book...and each additional good one you have will "have its moments" (ie. give you the occasional standout line on a play..that'll substantially reduce your loss/increase your payout over the "pinny only" option for that play)...

a variety of Skrill-able books viewable on one odds hub (even the SBR freebie http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/ ) will allow you to systematize and simplify the most-overlooked aspect of the sports-betting process ==> line-shopping .
Last edited by fitguy67; 08-21-13 at 10:32 PM.