Gambling god.
Cheers boys, feels great when you nail a game like that. Had an outstanding run in football (soccer) this year, has actually been my best sport from an ROI point of view. Had this crazy run earlier in the year at the African Cup of Nations where I went 9-0 through that tournament. Anyway enough boasting, the real reason I dropped in was to mention that I very much like this week's NRL card (not so much the AFL games) and have my eye on a couple of very solid total's and some live dogs. Probably post tonight after teams are announced...
Back with a bang. Hitting both 2 unit plays quite easily. Detroit Tigers took an early 4-0 lead after the 2nd innings and it was basically cruise control against the poor Whitesox as mentioned in pre game write up. Match finished 6-2. Marlins v Colorado finished way under the 9.5 total finishing 2-1 in favor of the Rockies. Unfortunately Seattle didnt turn up today and got a 8-1 beating, thats what happens when you bet on these average teams in the MLB, can be unpredictable.
MLB for the day: 2W - 1L
Profit: +2.2 Units
MLB TOTAL: 8W - 5L
Profit: +3.52 Units
Was pleasantly surprised after checking the score for the Detroit game soon after the start of play. Easy winner. Good work!
Boxing
*2.85 Lucas Browne (v Travis Walker)
$1.35, -285 Centrebet/Sportingbet (Risking 2.85 units to win 1)
Big Daddy a monster KO artist, undefeated (16-0 with 15 KO) and coming into his prime, he is the #1 ranked Australian heavweight (World ranked #30), and fighting a late replacement in another giant - American Travis Walker who is #23 ranked American heavyweight (World ranked #66). Browne’s last fight was a UD win over none other than James “lights out” Toney, albeit a well past his prime Toney. Walker a solid journeyman with a 39-10 record, but coming into this fight as a late replacement off the back of 3 straight losses is not exactly ideal preparation to fight Browne in his own backyard, plus his stamina is crap. Walker will come out hard for the first couple of rounds and then probably gas (if he lasts that long). Browne back in Australia after a successful stint fighting under Ricky Hatton promotions. Browne should be $1.25 for mine. Easy money.
I'm on it Sando! What time is the match?
got it - 630pm AEDT
Walker has been pounded at Sportingbet, which is why you're getting such a good line on Browne. He was $3.50 this morning there.... i think he probably loses though - should be jet lagged as penetrate and he's never been the fittest (as you said) either. Punchers chance and thats about it.
You could have arbed it at 5dimes (OTB) but it was $4.30.
Rohan: not sure why it goes OTB in 20 minutes. Coverage on foxsports doesn't start until 8EST, so the Browne fight won't be until at least 9:30, probably more like 9:45.
I've also had a nibble on Jake Carr at $2.30. Massive step up for him, but impressed by his highlights and interviews. Kid is good.
edit: most books don't look like they've moved it off the $1.25ish.
My god, it's so sad seeing that Toney fight.
Walker's only chance in this fight is to win by KO and I don't know how good Browne's chin is. He's really not that good IMO.
Walker might not be the guy to beat him... but Browne's time will come.
Hell... Shane Cameron might even be able to beat him. Tua, if in shape and mentally right, could murder him.....
NRL – Friday Night Football
Eels @ Bulldogs
The Eels are the worst team to bet on in the NRL throughout the last 3 seasons (backing the Eels for $100 on the m/l every game would have resulted in a total loss of -$2403).
25-37 ATS (Worst in NRL)
15-47 head to head (Worst in NRL)
4-34 (Away Record) with an astonishing 9-29 ATS
1-27 H2H and 5-23 ATS (Away games in NSW) Hard to believe right? They actually have a better record on interstate away game than they do in NSW.
When getting a start of 10+ in NSW Away games, the Eels are 0-5, both H2H and ATS.
The Bulldogs are basically at full strength this week, welcoming back J-Moz, Kasiano and Frank “the Tank” Pritchard, 3 massive in’s. They are well rested coming off the bye and in their last match they destroyed last season’s premiers 39-0, (albeit a depleted Melbourne side).
Big home favourites coming off a bye have covered ATS in six of 10 matches since 2009
Teams who scored 30+ points at their last start and go in as big home favourite (10+) cover 62.5% ATS since 2009
Last 5 @ ANZ stadium (Eels v Bulldogs) – 5 wins for the ‘doggies by an average of 16ppg.
The Eels 0-11 H2H and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 matches overall at ANZ stadium, with an astonishing average losing margin of 26ppg.
Conclusion – The Eels are absolutely horrible away from Parra stadium and in particular at ANZ stadium. These are some of the most damning stats I have ever seen in NRL. I smell carnage. Bulldog’s by lots.
2.5* Bulldogs -20 ($1.92 Sportsbet)
Bronco’s @ Cowboys
QLD may have won the State of Origin however I cannot hide my joy that no QLD teams will feature in the finals this year. The Titans are an outside chance, however the 2 QLD glamour clubs – the Cowboys and Broncos have both been very poor this year, with the Cowboys easily being the biggest disappointment of the season. So this traditional grudge match doesn’t carry anywhere near the hype of recent years and is more about pride (and also both coaches trying to keep their respective job’s) than anything else. Griffin doesn’t seem to want his job as he has made a bunch of just bizzare selection moves, dumping Corey Norman, dropping Wallace to the bench, and switching around the entire ¾ line – WTF? The Bronco’s are 2-13 with the man who replaces Wallace in the halves (Ben Hunt). The only smart move he has made is moving (the league's most overrated player) - Sam Thaiday back into the second row where he belongs. The Bronco’s could really use injured stars Reed and Yow Yeh back in their ¾ line. The Cowboys on the other hand welcome their “big4” back into the line up and with Matty Bowen back healthy and showing glimpses of his best form against Manly the Cowboys list looks as good as it has all year, especially with Johnson back and the exciting youngster Faifai Loa getting another shot after his great effort against Manly a f/n ago. Morgan also replaces Lui at h/b, not sure about this one? but with JT back in the team and running the halves, it is not as relevant anyway.
The Cowboys have had the wood over the Bronco’s in recent times, winning 4 of the last 6. The line is too short and should be -6 to -6.5, however upsets are very common in QLD derbies (all three teams). One thing that always catches my eye in league is when a team has an advantage in all three areas across the park and in this situation the Cowboys do indeed have a small advantage in the forwards, halves and ¾ line. The Bronco’s are 3-0 in QLD derbies this year, the Cowboy’s 0-2. Statistically both teams are garbage this season, however the Cowboys are 5-0 coming off the bye in recent times, which shows that they play well when rested. This makes sense considering how much work their engine room (Scott & Tamou) put in every week.
Conclusion - Brisbane's line-up too unsettled and injury hit makes me question how their on-field cohesion will be? The disappointing Cowboys at full strength and well rested, playing at home are at least 1 try better team and good for a small play in what I have as a defensively minded game, with a total set @ 34-36.
1.1* Cowboys -5.5 ($1.88 Pinnacle)
0.5* Under 38.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
Agree 100%. Tua (at full strength) would murder him and Cameron looked very good against Monte Barrett, although I think would struggle with Browne's power. Not saying Browne is anything special, just that he is significantly better and probably fitter than Walker who appears to be well past his best.
quite liking Tulsa -2.5 in the WNBA tomorrow.
indiana are playing their fourth game in 7 nights and HAHAHA making it worse.
they ran out of steam and NY ran over them in the last game Tuesday.
tulsa have won their last three and come in well rested.
am i cursed? had delbonis to win the 2nd set against granollers in the tennis, up 5-1...serving for the set and he ends up losing 7-5.....one of the most horrific losses i've had