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T-Wizz 2014 NBA Playoffs

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#438

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Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
I'm sorry pal. Live betting can be a killer. As it turns out, basically would have been a wash for me. I would have gone 2x spread, 2x ml on OKC Live.

Did you bet this late game or nah?
Nah. I have no opinion and not a good time to force one.

I don't really regret it I thought OKC was done.

The thing that kills me even more is had I not made these bets on Memphis I woulda hedged before the OT (from 5 minutes into the game was just waiting and praying for a moment to hedge), and woulda lost almost nothing. But since I was mad at losing these bets I rode out OKC hoping they'd come through and erase them, even though deep down I believed Memphis would win.

The sad thing for OKC is they can't even stop the Grizzlies. Down the stretch in regulation Memphis did their typical bullshit of running down the clock every possession but when they run their shit they get good shots every time.

I now strongly think Memphis wins this series but I'd probably be best served to stay away from it. Looking back to last year when I got a series wrong I got every game wrong, and when I got a series right I got every game right basically. No sense in trying to figure this one out more.
#440

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One thing I like to do is look back on past NBA playoffs and find similar situations. The NBA playoffs aren't exactly "predictable" but they do seem to follow patterns.


This Blazers-Rockets series reminds me a bit of Celtics-Magic in 2010. Maybe it's the Dwight Howard effect Idk. But it just kinda reminds me of that series when the Celtics won the first two games on the road.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NB...Boston_Celtics

That Celtics team had a TON of momentum and I think it's safe to say this Blazers team does as well when you consider how they finished the regular season combined with this series 2-0 start. So with that said, if this series resembles that one, does Portland carry the momentum into their home arena and win huge tomorrow night and then possibly lose the closeout game?

I realize they are two completely independent events but I've always found this kind of thing to be very useful.
#441

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Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
One thing I like to do is look back on past NBA playoffs and find similar situations. The NBA playoffs aren't exactly "predictable" but they do seem to follow patterns.


This Blazers-Rockets series reminds me a bit of Celtics-Magic in 2010. Maybe it's the Dwight Howard effect Idk. But it just kinda reminds me of that series when the Celtics won the first two games on the road.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NB...Boston_Celtics

That Celtics team had a TON of momentum and I think it's safe to say this Blazers team does as well when you consider how they finished the regular season combined with this series 2-0 start. So with that said, if this series resembles that one, does Portland carry the momentum into their home arena and win huge tomorrow night and then possibly lose the closeout game?

I realize they are two completely independent events but I've always found this kind of thing to be very useful.
I agree I try to make analogies like that often as well.

This could be also like the Lakers/Mavs series in 2011. The Mavs won a tight game 1 in LA then blew it open in the 4th quarter of game 2 after a tight game until then. Kinda like Portland just did.

But your comparison may be better because of 1 more common factor (Howard).
#443

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Blazers rockets series is something else. You're talking about a UNDERRATED portland team. Teams been crucified since start of season for over performing kind of shadowing who they really are. Portland are a playoff team first round exit or not. Oden and Roy injuries always held them back but there was a time when they were considered a top playoff team. Now they got a hot shot pg and they place 5th and everything think they shouldn't be there.

Houston on the other side have absolutely no good individual strengths that can be welded together for a playoff bound team. You have parsons, Beverly and lin. Who are these guys ? Young, no namers. Team is known to choke and coach never sends them in right direction. This is a big enough factor already but in addition to hack a dwight this team is not a team that's capable of blowing out playoff teams. Once you've understood this, you're looking at a 5v5 (no bench for both teams unless you consider mo Williams who I think is better and more experienced than half the Houston starting 5) with a playoff team against a bunch of energetic scorers that aren't talented defensively with no good defensive coach.

Portland at 325 live game 2 was a gift. One of the few times in playoff history when having home court advantage is a disadvantage. Surely didn't help when they saw Chicago down 2 0 at home. Seto I meant Chicago.
#444

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Quote Originally Posted by Seto View Post
I agree I try to make analogies like that often as well.

This could be also like the Lakers/Mavs series in 2011. The Mavs won a tight game 1 in LA then blew it open in the 4th quarter of game 2 after a tight game until then. Kinda like Portland just did.

But your comparison may be better because of 1 more common factor (Howard).
Haha I thought about that one also. That's a good one.

Let me ask you this. Do you think the public has given up on Houston now and has jumped on the Blazers bandwagon? I think a good amount of people have done that and a lot of that has to do with the fact that people don't like Dwight Howard. However, despite that, I think there's still plenty of people who will take Houston because they don't think they'll go down 0-3. So personally I think it will be split but it's tough to get a real feel for public perception in this matchup.
#446

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Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
Haha I thought about that one also. That's a good one.

Let me ask you this. Do you think the public has given up on Houston now and has jumped on the Blazers bandwagon? I think a good amount of people have done that and a lot of that has to do with the fact that people don't like Dwight Howard. However, despite that, I think there's still plenty of people who will take Houston because they don't think they'll go down 0-3. So personally I think it will be split but it's tough to get a real feel for public perception in this matchup.
Only thing you are hoping for is a 30 plus point blow out or Houston to be clutch in the game that will have most pressure out of all 3. Talking about a dangerous bet lol. What about an answer to Aldridge.?
#447

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The thing to remember about Portland is that while yes, they are a very good team, they do tend to take a lot of jumpshots. They've been red hot here and Aldridge has been incredible but one thing I know about basketball is that it does not take much to go from red hot to ice cold. Really, it just takes a fraction for those same shots to not fall - and that's something you really can't predict. This is why, longterm, it is better to back the team that can get the majority of its shots closer to the rim.
#448

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Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
Haha I thought about that one also. That's a good one.

Let me ask you this. Do you think the public has given up on Houston now and has jumped on the Blazers bandwagon? I think a good amount of people have done that and a lot of that has to do with the fact that people don't like Dwight Howard. However, despite that, I think there's still plenty of people who will take Houston because they don't think they'll go down 0-3. So personally I think it will be split but it's tough to get a real feel for public perception in this matchup.
I have no idea. I'm trying to figure out the same thing for the Bulls. That Bulls team is always better when everyone gives up on them.
#450

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Quote Originally Posted by WalkingLuckCharm View Post
Only thing you are hoping for is a 30 plus point blow out or Houston to be clutch in the game that will have most pressure out of all 3. Talking about a dangerous bet lol. What about an answer to Aldridge.?
They don't have a real answer to him unless they double team. But again, do those 20 footers start to be just marginally off? That's all it takes.