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#2904

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I don't see any reason why ST trend is weaker than LT trend, for short term...

If there is a trend that works this season, that's all I care about. If trend was great for 10 years, but doesn't work this season, I won't use it.
I always check many things, but 2 main ones - how the trend is doing this season and how it does in the current month overall (previous seasons as well of course - but current month).
There are trends that are great, but in one month, for some reason just don't work. Don't forget that each month in the NBA is different. Fatigue wise, importance wise, rest wise.
Each month stands for something else, though December and January are similar imo more or less.
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#2905

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Quote Originally Posted by dmitean View Post
I don't see any reason why ST trend is weaker than LT trend, for short term...

If there is a trend that works this season, that's all I care about. If trend was great for 10 years, but doesn't work this season, I won't use it.
I always check many things, but 2 main ones - how the trend is doing this season and how it does in the current month overall (previous seasons as well of course - but current month).
There are trends that are great, but in one month, for some reason just don't work. Don't forget that each month in the NBA is different. Fatigue wise, importance wise, rest wise.
Each month stands for something else, though December and January are similar imo more or less.

I think you are right, except maybe "month" is just our best working approximation of clumps of time where teams have slightly different outlooks on b-ball and b-ball in relation to their lives in general. The kinds of markers the team personnel might be paying attention to might be Xmas, Thanksgiving, all-star break, and playoffs, maybe, more than months...
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#2907

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Quote Originally Posted by pip2 View Post
I think you are right, except maybe "month" is just our best working approximation of clumps of time where teams have slightly different outlooks on b-ball and b-ball in relation to their lives in general. The kinds of markers the team personnel might be paying attention to might be Xmas, Thanksgiving, all-star break, and playoffs, maybe, more than months...
I agree, that's why months matter though. I believe that team in biggest fatigue in January. Start of the season is far behind, the holidays are behind and ASG break no where in sight. Favorites tend to overlook the most times in this month I believe and bad teams many times just don't show up. In February is break or make time for many teams. I know that Toronto for example, always been really focused to go out on the break on a high note. Many teams try to improve their positions at that time - giving everything they got, because they know that the break is near and they will have time to rest and want to go with a good taste.
Also, it's close to trade deadline, so many teams check if they got what it takes to make one last push and if the answer is no, they can break their team and shop half of it.
End of March is where the tanking begins and fight for the playoffs really heats up - sometimes it can even start earlier.
April - time to tank, for good teams to get some rest for their key players, before playoffs, for some teams, final chance to make the playoffs.
November is the month where the fatigue still haven't kicked in, teams still full of hope, but new teams, still have some chemistry issues.
I believe that each month is different and that it's possible for trend not to work in some month.
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#2908

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Quote Originally Posted by dmitean View Post
I agree, that's why months matter though. I believe that team in biggest fatigue in January. Start of the season is far behind, the holidays are behind and ASG break no where in sight. Favorites tend to overlook the most times in this month I believe and bad teams many times just don't show up. In February is break or make time for many teams. I know that Toronto for example, always been really focused to go out on the break on a high note. Many teams try to improve their positions at that time - giving everything they got, because they know that the break is near and they will have time to rest and want to go with a good taste.
Also, it's close to trade deadline, so many teams check if they got what it takes to make one last push and if the answer is no, they can break their team and shop half of it.
End of March is where the tanking begins and fight for the playoffs really heats up - sometimes it can even start earlier.
April - time to tank, for good teams to get some rest for their key players, before playoffs, for some teams, final chance to make the playoffs.
November is the month where the fatigue still haven't kicked in, teams still full of hope, but new teams, still have some chemistry issues.
I believe that each month is different and that it's possible for trend not to work in some month.
Yep, great breakdown of the mini-parts of a season. Maybe we should try to define them with X>game number>Y types of ranges...
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#2909

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Quote Originally Posted by dmitean View Post
I don't see any reason why ST trend is weaker than LT trend, for short term...

If there is a trend that works this season, that's all I care about. If trend was great for 10 years, but doesn't work this season, I won't use it.
I always check many things, but 2 main ones - how the trend is doing this season and how it does in the current month overall (previous seasons as well of course - but current month).
There are trends that are great, but in one month, for some reason just don't work. Don't forget that each month in the NBA is different. Fatigue wise, importance wise, rest wise.
Each month stands for something else, though December and January are similar imo more or less.
I was thinking of this in context of there being 4 other trends supporting OKC, and the one ST trend supporting Miami. If someone were eliminating any conflicting plays, this one would have been out due to the one relatively weak conflicting trend. Somewhat similar to Nash13's "only rated above 3" back test.
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