All the crappy bets I made today, and I stepped back from this one...Originally Posted by pip2
at 4.5 I'm tempted to bet the other way...
I know, man... I kinda beat myself up over passing on it too, but if you look at the differential after the first quarter, it was a complete outlier comparing it to the average 1st quarter differential in this situation. I'd rather make a no play consistent with what the numbers are telling us, than make a careless wager against the evidence we have available, with a good chance of losing. Even if this time it resulted in a win, in the long run, using the careless approach would translate into negative ROI.All the crappy bets I made today, and I stepped back from this one...
Last edited by emceeaye; 12-22-14 at 12:31 AM.
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
12/22/14 7:45am pst Reduced Basketball 514 Golden State Warriors -12 -105* vs Sacramento Kings
SDQL:
playoffs=0 and p:W and season > 2007 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p:points + p:points in the paint/p:points > .76 and conference=Western and op:margin > -2
SDQL: English
Since 2007 and excluding playoffs, a western conference team won its previous game, it's opponent has won at least 23% as many games as the team has won, and in its previous game the team scored at least 76% of its point either in the paint or from beyond the arc, and the team's opponent won its last game or at least did not lose by more than 1 point.
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
Play posted 12/22 @ 12:34pm
12/22/14 8:35pm Atlanta Hawks +4 -103 vs Dallas Mavericks
SDQL:
A and tA(points)>=102 and oA(o:points)>= 102 and op:W and p:points>=100 and pp:points>=100 and (game number)>15 and playoffs=0
SDQL: English
Play away team averaging more than 102 pts/game that has scored more than 100 points in each of last two games against an opponent who allows on average more than 102 points per game.
Here's one of the larger NBA trends (#21) we have that backs the Bulls tonight:
p:ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10
Last edited by Cutler'sThumb; 12-22-14 at 12:18 PM.
NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15
Overall Group Record - 87-76-3 - 53.3% (+5.96) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)
Yesterday's recap 1-1 (0.00)
Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)
1. JMon - 15-15-1 (-.50)
2. pip2 - 17-12 (+4.28)
3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)
4. Ronald S. - 9-16 (-7.96)
5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)
6. Mako-SBR - 14-14 (-1.40)
7. Heart - 6-1 (+4.92)
8. Consigliere - 10-5-1 (+4.65)
9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)
10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
Play posted 12/22 @ 359PM ET
12/22/14 Bulls -4.5 +100 vs Raptors
SDQL:
A and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W and pppp:W and ppppp:W and rest=0 and line>=-8 and month in [12,1] and season>=2009
SDQL: English
Fade the away team coming off a 5 game win streak on 0 days rest with a line greater than -8 in the months of Dec and Jan. A couple trends pointing to fade the Raps tonight. They have been a decent road team so far this year but I think the relatively healthy Bulls will beat them tonight.
Love that one, even data-mined and overfit to hell it still works for Chicago tonight, 10-52 ATS:Here's one of the larger NBA trends (#21) we have that backs the Bulls tonight:
p:ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008 and 11.5 > line > -10
p:ou margin>10 and rest<1 and P:L and season>2008 and 13>= line>=-9 and (p:FW or p:AFL or p:HDW) and month in [12,1,3,4] and (op:W or op:ADL)
Thanks for the heads up CT, going to use the modified one as a BB:
NBA 'Best Bet' 2014-15
12/22/14 - 4:01p PST
Play: CHI (-4) TOR -110
SDQL:
p:ou margin>10 and rest<1 and P:L and season>2008 and 13>= line>=-9 and (p:FW or p:AFL or p:HDW) and month in [12,1,3,4] and (op:W or op:ADL)
English:
Team that went over the total by 10 in last game, on no rest, with a line between -9 and +13, against an opponent that won their last game, or, lost as a dog, in the months of 12/1/3/4. Let's get it, we're all pretty much on this game!
Last edited by Mako-SBR; 12-22-14 at 06:04 PM.
line>12 and month=1 and season>2009
SU:4-48 (-17.92, 7.7%)ATS:17-33-2 (-4.31, 34.0%) avg line: 13.6O/U:16-34-2 (-4.81, 32.0%) avg total: 195.5
Big dogs suck big time in January.
Also notice the Under tendency - since in December it doesn't get a lot better:
line>12 and month=12 and season>2009
SU:1-36 (-14.81, 2.7%)ATS:16-21-0 (-1.34, 43.2%) avg line: 13.5O/U:14-22-1 (-4.46, 38.9%) avg total: 201.0
And combined:
line>12 and month in [12, 1] and season>2009
SU:5-84 (-16.63, 5.6%)ATS:33-54-2 (-3.07, 37.9%) avg line: 13.6O/U:30-56-3 (-4.66, 34.9%) avg total: 197.8
Nice job on the best bets yesterday guys. I rode all 3 winners. Thanks for posting!
NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15
Overall Group Record - 91-76-3 - 54.4% (+9.96) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)
Yesterday's recap 4-0 (+4.00)
Official Entries: Max 10 of 10: (no particular order)
1. JMon - 15-15-1 (-.50)
2. pip2 - 18-12 (+5.28)
3. nash13 - 7-4 (+2.82)
4. Ronald S. - 9-16 (-7.96)
5. hyahya - 6-5-1 (+.45)
6. Mako-SBR - 15-14 (-.40)
7. Heart - 7-1 (+5.92)
8. Consigliere - 11-5-1 (+5.65)
9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)
10. Open Spot - let me know if any one wants it!
I wonder if away teams playing away on the 23rd of December are less preoccupied with home-xmas-related issues:
date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and H
Yeah I'm nervous about putting $ on games this close to Christmas. Sample size around this time is small as well. I may layoff for several days.
Great job yesterday though, fellas!
Yes, it's a known fact actually.I wonder if away teams playing away on the 23rd of December are less preoccupied with home-xmas-related issues:
date in [20141223,20131223,20121223,20111223,2010 1223,20091223,20081223,20071223] and H
date in [20141225, 20131225, 20121225, 20111225, 20101225,20091225,20081225,20071225] and H
SU:18-15 (-0.55, 54.5%)ATS:16-16-1 (-3.32, 50.0%) avg line: -2.8O/U:12-21-0 (-6.42, 36.4%) avg total: 198.8
Under is the way to go afterwards though...
