Yes, the more they are ahead at the end of the third and the more they lost by at the end of the game, the more demoralized they are!Originally Posted by emceeaye
That's nice--very intuitive rationale... Tweaked it a bit:
p:M3 >= 3 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -2 and rest = 0 and [M1 > - line / 4] = [False]
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
12/1/14 8:30am pst Reduced Basketball 701 Miami Heat/Washington Wizards Under 188 -105
SDQL:
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa <-11 and rest <=1 and o:rest <= 1
SDQL: English
In the previous game the team scored at least 12 points less than expected, while their opponent, in their previous game, allowed at least 12 points less than expected, For today's game, neither team has had more than 1 day of rest....
Just updated the spreadsheet. Sixers/Spurs Under 197.5 (line has moved down now tho) looks to be a pretty good play.
These trends are very similar, with the first one just allowing for a slightly larger sample size.
205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008
200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008
Last edited by Cutler'sThumb; 12-01-14 at 11:48 AM.
And that they are a dog helps as much as, if not more than, being on the road.Yes, the more they are ahead at the end of the third and the more they lost by at the end of the game, the more demoralized they are!
Will be passing on Best Bet today but I did find a little something here that supports the Wizards Heat Under today.
p:DPS <= -9 and pp:DPS <= -9 and H and season >= 2009 and (rest + o:rest) <= 1
SU: 34-30 (1.97, 53.1%) ATS: 30-32-2 (-0.92, 48.4%) avg line: -2.9 O/U: 23-40-1 (-2.18, 36.5%) avg total: 195.4
@pip2: Ah I see you have a similar query for the wizards/heat under. GL my friend!
Add day=Monday, and things get rosier, albeit with a smallish sample sizeJust updated the spreadsheet. Sixers/Spurs Under 197.5 (line has moved down now tho) looks to be a pretty good play.
These trends are very similar, with the first one just allowing for a slightly larger sample size.
205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008
200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008
Or if you want a larger sample size add in [Sunday,Monday,Tuesday] , I think it hits at around 69%...Add day=Monday, and things get rosier, albeit with a smallish sample size
Last edited by pip2; 12-01-14 at 02:44 PM.
Thanks Ronald, I think I'm going to need some luck because this is kind of a chase bet after losing so many over bets yesterday...@pip2: Ah I see you have a similar query for the wizards/heat under. GL my friend!
It's interesting that when they lose by too much (i.e., by more than 2) it's not quite as demoralizing as when it is a loss by 2 or less... However, sample size may be too small to have enough power to be able to legitimately differentiate between a loss by a little and a loss by a lot.Yes, the more they are ahead at the end of the third and the more they lost by at the end of the game, the more demoralized they are!
I missed the dog part, thanks emceeayeAnd that they are a dog helps as much as, if not more than, being on the road.
Thanks Cutler! I'm jumping on any reasonable under I can find on Sundays Mondays Tuesdays and Thursdays!Just updated the spreadsheet. Sixers/Spurs Under 197.5 (line has moved down now tho) looks to be a pretty good play.
These trends are very similar, with the first one just allowing for a slightly larger sample size.
205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008
200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008
I added a few CollegeFB trends, very promising on totals.
Nice!Or if you want a larger sample size add in [Sunday,Monday,Tuesday] , I think it hits at around 69%...
Don't see much in tonights games. Hopefully I can get find something for tomorrow.
