I like U203.5 in SAC/NO tonight as my best bet but don't have the query with me as I'm at work.
Thanks pip, very impressive to say the least, will be interesting to see how your strategy goes on consensus picks, love it.Originally Posted by pip2
Not sure how accurate the counting is, but it looks something like this:
....................... 64.... 31.....3
It got to be kind of a daily slap in the face for me, and the last straw was when the spitball query results went 17-5-1 Saturday night. My personal bets that night went 3-3 (the 3 wins being the heavily query-favored games which I only bet once).
Now what I have decided to do is to bet like the count for the spitball query results. If there are three distinct, reasonable queries pointing to the same result on the same game, then I bet 3 units with them. If there are 2 queries on a team to cover, and another query on that team to lose ATS, I bet 2-1=1 unit on the team.
Too early to say if it works, but last night I finally had results on a par with the spitball query results...
No Best Bet from me today, those who do play BOL!
thanks, Ronald. I'll let you know whenever I'm in need of help. Thanks again.Sure I can help track just let me know when!
NBA Best Bet
11/25/14 3:00 PM EST
Chicago ML +125 (@Denver) (5dimes)
AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and p:A and line < 4
SU: 52-34 (0.17, 60.5%) ATS: 59-27-0 (2.55, 68.6%) avg line: 2.4
Well I messed up again lol. Line moved again so I will just go with Bulls ML. As far as the query, it's the same one I've used a lot recently. Just play on the short road dog on a b2b in November. Even better when their previous game was an away game.
thanks, Ronald. I'll let you know whenever I'm in need of help. Thanks again.
I've added the CUSUM data (LT,MT, ST) and my comments on the trends into the spreadsheet. That should cover that piece off, sharing the charts will be another story. The spreadsheet has 2 active trends today, NBA67 and NBA103. 1 ATS and 1 TOTAL on the NO/SAC game.
Great work pip. I've been trying to cross reference the "Spitball Queries" with the spreadsheet and it seems like there a few queries you are posting that are not on the spreadsheet and vice versa....do you have a copy of all of these that you could put into a new tab on the spreadsheet...I can go through and cross reference everything and then come up with a single "MASTER" list that everyone can have and use as reference....want to make sure we are capturing all the trends we can.Not sure how accurate the counting is, but it looks something like this:
11/24/2014........ 6...... 2
11/23/2014........ 3...... 1
11/22/2014........ 17.... 5...... 1
11/21/2014.........4.......6
11/20/2014........ 2.......0
11/19/2014........ 11.... 10.... 2
11/18/2014........ 2.......1
11/17/2014
11/16/2014
11/15/2014........ 5...... 2
11/14/2014 ........7...... 2
11/13/2014........ 1...... 1
11/12/2014.........6.......1
....................... 64.... 31.....3
It got to be kind of a daily slap in the face for me, and the last straw was when the spitball query results went 17-5-1 Saturday night. My personal bets that night went 3-3 (the 3 wins being the heavily query-favored games which I only bet once).
Now what I have decided to do is to bet like the count for the spitball query results. If there are three distinct, reasonable queries pointing to the same result on the same game, then I bet 3 units with them. If there are 2 queries on a team to cover, and another query on that team to lose ATS, I bet 2-1=1 unit on the team.
Too early to say if it works, but last night I finally had results on a par with the spitball query results...
No BB for me today. Like the Sac trend to cover but not good enough to put up as a BB today. There will be a big slate to pick from tomorrow.
NBA Best Bet
11/25/14 - 3:30p CT
Play - GS -7.5 -110 lost track of the line, busy at work..still going roll with them.
SDQL
H and 12.5 >= line >= 2.5 and p:HW and p:margin <= 3 and (month != 12 and month!=1)
SDQL English:
Fade a home dog between 2.5 and 12.5 coming off a home close home win - note seems to work well in the Month of November!
NBA BEST BET
11/25/14 7:33 PM EST
Parlay: Bucks ML & Pelicans ML (+120)
Milwaukee Bucks ML
HF and ats streak <= -2 and o:ats streak <= -1 and rest >=2 and o:rest >= 3 and season >= 2000
SU:28-9 (8.59, 75.7%)
New Orleans Pelicans ML
HF and ats streak >= 1 and o:ats streak >=2 and rest >=2 and o:rest >= 2 and season >= 2000
SU:85-36 (5.57, 70.2%)
The Home Favorite wins more than 70% of the time when both teams have 2 or more days rest and the opponent is on a longer winning streak(New Orleans). The Home Favorite wins more than 75% of the time when coming into the game on a losing streak of two or more games and both teams are on at least 2 days rest (Bucks).
Last edited by GolfAddict; 11-25-14 at 06:35 PM. Reason: incorrect time and changed description
Consig, about 90 or 95% of my queries come from this thread, and the rest come from Google groups (unless I get time to write one or two. Every week or so I peek into the spreadsheet and see Nash has added a query or two that I have posted, so I kind of assumed he is taking care of the onesies and twosies I have that aren't already documented in the common spreadsheet, as I post them...is that not so?Great work pip. I've been trying to cross reference the "Spitball Queries" with the spreadsheet and it seems like there a few queries you are posting that are not on the spreadsheet and vice versa....do you have a copy of all of these that you could put into a new tab on the spreadsheet...I can go through and cross reference everything and then come up with a single "MASTER" list that everyone can have and use as reference....want to make sure we are capturing all the trends we can.
I try my best to cover every new query I see, but it is hard to keep track with the awesome work and output round here. If this continues we will have 200 queries by the end of the season, after that it will be picking the good ones and calculating value.
this works much better than i would ever thought of before. so as long there is a solid groundwork, i will do my best to cover.
Yeah but there are some that are missed. Once we get everything square theConsig, about 90 or 95% of my queries come from this thread, and the rest come from Google groups (unless I get time to write one or two. Every week or so I peek into the spreadsheet and see Nash has added a query or two that I have posted, so I kind of assumed he is taking care of the onesies and twosies I have that aren't already documented in the common spreadsheet, as I post them...is that not so?
Updating is easier. If you have them documented and easy to share might as well.
Actually, that's kind of the problem. I have them laid out so it's easy to see when they have found a game, but I don't have them set up in a nice bunch that I can just copy and paste without a bit of hassle.Yeah but there are some that are missed. Once we get everything square the
Updating is easier. If you have them documented and easy to share might as well.
Well this could not have worked out any worse for me tonight. Not only did I get the worst number on the Bulls, but the line moved back and closed at Bulls +4.5 so they actually wouldn't fall under the query in my best bet. Sure enough, the database has the line at Bulls +4. 3.5 really looks like the cutoff for when the trend is most effective. When the line is exactly 4, the away dog is only 18-15 ATS (soon to be 18-16) and not so good straight up either (14-20 soon to be 14-21). I need to be more careful with picks that are line dependent in the future, especially when the market shows uncertainty and the line fluctuates as was the case here. Live and learn I guess!I knew the Bulls line would go down. Wanted to get them in as my best bet at +4 but was busy earlier
