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NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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#2026

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NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-24-14 - 4:20p CT


Play: CHI -3 -110

SDQL: A and 102>=tA(points)>=98 and 102>=oA(o:points)>=98 and po:points>=100 and ppo:points>=100 and 2009<=season and line<8

SDQL English:

Since 2009 play a road fav or dog no higher than 7.5; a good offensive team vs a poor defensive team after allowing 100pt or more b2b. Rested team of 2 days hits 82% ATS; favorites hit 79% ATS.
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#2028

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Something I tested with MLB data back in the years came back into my mind by looking at the NBA queries.
Most of the Trends i got for MLB back then queried Dog Wins.
So i thought in reverse psychology that by the law of averages the games left out must be FAV Wins by design.

Taking this to the NBA level
we have 50 ATS trends who look up Away Teams, Fav or Dog no matter.
So if these queries leave out a game by design the likelihood of being an ATS Home Win increases.
Something to think about.
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#2029

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NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-24-14 - some plays maybe pending.

Ronald S. - TOR UN 207.5 (1.03 to win 1)

Mako - LAC -5 (1.10 to win 1)

Consig - LAC -4.5 (1.1 to win 1)

pip2 - LAC -5 (1.05 to win 1)

Nash13 - LAC -5 (1.1 to win 1)

hyahya - PHIL +13 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - CHI -3 (1.1 to win 1)
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#2030

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Just a note to those following the Best Bet tracking. I will be on the road Wed, Thurs for the holidays, but should be able to track. In case I don't I will calculate on Friday.

In the future, I would like to know if anyone would be willing to help track in case I'm away for an extended period of time????
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#2032

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Quote Originally Posted by GolfAddict View Post
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-24-147:00PM EST

Suns/RaptorsOver 210 (-110)

team = Suns and D and rest < 2 and p:margin >= 10 and p:BAP < 50 and season >= 2004

O/U: 12-0-0 (19.08, 100.0%)avg total: 211.3
This looks like Dr. M'S QOD. He has been pretty hot. Won with Memphis yesterday.
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#2033

Default Spitball Query Results

1-1: hou/ny and phi/por UNDER from rcgriffin O/U:303-392-12 (-1.43, 43.6%)
p:dps < -11 and op:dpa < -11 and rest <=1 and o:rest <=1

1-0: ny covers vs hou From JR ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak<0 and 0 < o:ats streak <3

1-0: ny covers vs hou From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63 and day!=Sunday and day!=Thursday

1-0: phi covers vs por From Tom ATS: 142-74-3 (2.96, 65.7%)
H and (line > 10 or line < -15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line <= 15

0-1: phi/por UNDER From jmon O/U: 9-32-0 (-8.16, 22.0%)
total > 202 and p:ou margin <= -18 and WP <=25 and 2009 <=season

1-0: lac covers vs cha from consigliere -- ATS: 304-215-11 (0.57, 58.6%)
AF and p:AL and p:ats margin < 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2006

1-0: lac covers vs cha pip --ATS:93-142-3 (-2.11, 39.6%)
season >= 2005 and HD and p:L and rest=0 and game number > 10 and game number < 60

Total: 6-2
Last edited by pip2; 11-24-14 at 10:18 PM.
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#2035

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Overall Group Record - 43-28-1 60.5% (+13.33) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 6-2 (+3.80) - Clips cover in a big way , Ronald bounces back with his query on TOR un- where GolfAddict loses the over, hyahya covers with the 76er's with a high line. Jmon loses with the Bulls by one- Thanks Gasol for missing your second FT with 3 seconds left in the game.

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 5-5 (+.30)

2. pip2 - 6-3 (+2.85)

3. nash13 - 6-2 (+3.97)

4. Ronald S. - 6-4 (+1.85)

5. hyahya - 5-3 (+1.65)

6. Mako-SBR - 4-5 (-1.50)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-2-1 (+4.86)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-2 (-1.20)

Last edited by JMon; 11-25-14 at 07:42 AM.
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#2037

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Quote Originally Posted by mako-sbr View Post
what is that, the sixth winning day in a row with a high number of daily picks? Amazing...no one outside this thread else is even close, great job all.

:cheers:
Not sure how accurate the counting is, but it looks something like this:

11/24/2014........ 6...... 2
11/23/2014........ 3...... 1
11/22/2014........ 17.... 5...... 1
11/21/2014.........4.......6
11/20/2014........ 2.......0
11/19/2014........ 11.... 10.... 2
11/18/2014........ 2.......1
11/17/2014
11/16/2014
11/15/2014........ 5...... 2
11/14/2014 ........7...... 2
11/13/2014........ 1...... 1
11/12/2014.........6.......1
....................... 64.... 31.....3


It got to be kind of a daily slap in the face for me, and the last straw was when the spitball query results went 17-5-1 Saturday night. My personal bets that night went 3-3 (the 3 wins being the heavily query-favored games which I only bet once).

Now what I have decided to do is to bet like the count for the spitball query results. If there are three distinct, reasonable queries pointing to the same result on the same game, then I bet 3 units with them. If there are 2 queries on a team to cover, and another query on that team to lose ATS, I bet 2-1=1 unit on the team.

Too early to say if it works, but last night I finally had results on a par with the spitball query results...
Last edited by pip2; 11-25-14 at 09:32 AM.
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#2039

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Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
Just a note to those following the Best Bet tracking. I will be on the road Wed, Thurs for the holidays, but should be able to track. In case I don't I will calculate on Friday.

In the future, I would like to know if anyone would be willing to help track in case I'm away for an extended period of time????
Sure I can help track just let me know when!
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