No best bet from me today...bol guys!!!
Like the thought process. Where do you guys get betting split data from?Originally Posted by Mako-SBR
I like this premise, because it's gotten better over time and when you ask yourself why that would be, why would it be so much more dominant than say 10 years ago, one of the potential answers is the rise of the internet bettor. Books can't make the line in these games what it really should be, i.e. the favorite laying fewer points (or even getting points at home) because the square bettor likes betting home favorites, and too much money would drop on one side, leading to too much risk exposure.
As an example, in this case Detroit is apparently getting 52% of the money wagered as of this post time, which means the supposed 50/50 money balance books aim for has been achieved.
If they adjusted the line to what it should be, reflecting Orlando as a stronger team against Detroit (and thus getting fewer points), the 52% would climb as square internet bettors tend to like home favorites, and that would tip the money into a riskier proposition for the book as more money comes in on Detroit, like 60/40 or 70/30.
ATS streaks have previously been looked down on over the years, because they lead to Martingale-esque propositions that can destroy bankrolls through either chasing or fading the streak while doubling down into oblivion. But SDQL analysis can lead to insight into +EV where the book is backed into a corner, and this game and SDQL query is a possible example of that.
Good stuff Roland, even if it's a hypothesis that is way off base it's still interesting to see how it plays out.
It's interesting how it flows, but basically the online books sell (or provide) their wagering data to distributors like SportsInsights, etc, who then sell (or provide) the data to ESPN and other sites.Like the thought process. Where do you guys get betting split data from?
You can get it a variety of places, SBR doesn't allow external links, but if you go to ScoresAndOdds and click on "Las Vegas Odds" it will give you the side/ML/totals on the right side, or TheSpread dot com, under their NBA tab, select "Public Betting". Bunch of others too, all sharing mostly the same original source data.
Queries found today (only 2):
sa covers vs phx: from Tom, ATS: 142-74-3 (2.96, 65.7%)
H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15
den covers vs cle: from mako ATS: 105-51-3 (3.22, 67.3%)
AD and p:AL and p:margin<=-13 and tA(points)>=100 and o:WP>=60 and o:rest>0
Started too late today so no best bet.
No best bet for me tonight. BOL!
Notice: Typo in the SDQL data today, the DEN/CLE NBA game is listed as DEN +1.5, meanwhile the line is obviously higher, +11.5, which is probably where the typo came from (missed a 1)....Geez, thanks did not notice...did you email Joe yet or que the group?? Probably messed with my automated queries.
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-17-14
Plays - some maybe pending.....
Ronald S. - ORL +4 (1.05 to win 1)
Consigliere - PHX -2 (1.05 to win1)
Mako-SBR - NO OV 203 (1.1 to win 1)
nash13 - PHX -1.5 (1.09 to win 1)
Relay any errors please
bol fellas.. let's sweep 'em
Forty Six...are you still part of the Best Bet group? Please let me know.
I'm tailing you guys on Phoenix. This thread is AWESOME.
definitely digging the card tonight. Good luck to us.NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-17-14
Plays - some maybe pending.....
Ronald S. - ORL +4 (1.05 to win 1)
Consigliere - PHX -2 (1.05 to win1)
Mako-SBR - NO OV 203 (1.1 to win 1)
nash13 - PHX -1.5 (1.09 to win 1)
Relay any errors please
bol fellas.. let's sweep 'em
I think there is some value in college too, esp on the totals.
Overall Group Record - 20-13 60.6% (+6.35)
Yesterday's recap 3-1 (+1.90)
Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:
1. JMon - 2-3 (-.60)
2. pip2 - 2-1 (+.95)
3. nash13 - 4-1 (+3.00)
4. Ronald S. - 3-1 (+1.95)
5. hyahya - 2-2 (-.20)
6. Mako-SBR - 1-3 (-2.30)
7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)
8. Consigliere - 4-0 (+4.00)
9. Sports Mind - 1-0 (+1.00)
10. Forty Six - 0-0 (0.00)
Might be something you can track on the spreadsheet? I'm not going to worry about here. This is all in good fun.Just if there are 3 of the same bets it only counts as 1 win.
Yeah sounds good. Beauty again last night, although the old Suns did their best to win and not cover...good thing Rondo is the worst FT shooting guard in NBA historyMight be something you can track on the spreadsheet? I'm not going to worry about here. This is all in good fun.
