NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

Here's one detailing the next game after a bad FT shooting night for a good FT shooting team on high volume:

tA(FTP)>75 and p:FTP<65 and p:FTA>25 and season>2007 and 190 < total < 200

Originally Posted by hyahya

Conversation here's been great and got my creative juices flowing:

tA(points)>101 and p:TPA>25 and p:TPP<30 and season>2007 and p:FTA<25 and 210>total>200 and p:L

Good offensive team that got burned the previous game by shooting a low 3pt % on a high volume of 3s and lacked aggressiveness (low FTA) tend to continue to struggle offensively the next game. Goes to 1-8 on the total when rest=0.

nice hyahya

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13 - PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2 - NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - PORT OV 209 (1.1 to win 1)

Consigliere - DET +7 (1.2 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - ORL OV 193.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Ronald S. - PORT +3 (1.05 to win 1)

Please let me know of errors.

Originally Posted by hyahya

Conversation here's been great and got my creative juices flowing:

tA(points)>101 and p:TPA>25 and p:TPP<30 and season>2007 and p:FTA<25 and 210>total>200 and p:L

Good offensive team that got burned the previous game by shooting a low 3pt % on a high volume of 3s and lacked aggressiveness (low FTA) tend to continue to struggle offensively the next game. Goes to 1-8 on the total when rest=0.

Originally Posted by JMon

nice hyahya

Very nice, tailing.

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Very nice, tailing.

Add the fact that the game is in unfamiliar surroundings for both teams and it becomes an even more compelling play IMO.

Originally Posted by hyahya

Add the fact that the game is in unfamiliar surroundings for both teams and it becomes an even more compelling play IMO.

Anyone concerned the line has gone up 6 pts?

Originally Posted by hyahya

Add the fact that the game is in unfamiliar surroundings for both teams and it becomes an even more compelling play IMO.

add rest<2

Originally Posted by Consigliere

Anyone concerned the line has gone up 6 pts?

A little considering a move that large is probably a "sharp" or "syndicate" move. Would be nice to know what previous totals for games in Mexico look like given I vaguely remember there was an AC problem there for at least one of the games which may have caused the defense to sag (not sure if that problem is chronic though).

FlyinAir.. odds need to be posted for this play to count.

Portland +3@ -110

Originally Posted by Consigliere

Anyone concerned the line has gone up 6 pts?

Books may have set the total low on purpose. So far, every Houston game has gone Under and last 2 by a good amount. I think they underestimate Houston's defense this year! May wait to see if it goes higher but Under 205.5 looks good now especially looking at hyahya's trend

Originally Posted by JMon

add rest<2

Damn, that's a ridiculous run!

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13 - PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2 - NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - PORT OV 209 (1.1 to win 1)

Consigliere - DET +7 (1.2 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - ORL OV 193.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Ronald S. - PORT +3 (1.05 to win 1)

FlyinAir - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

Please let me know of errors.

Originally Posted by Consigliere

Hey guys, check out the spreadsheet. The Discussions/Chat tab. I posted a couple CUSUM graphs of a couple of the nba trends that I think show some of the power of that statistical charting tool. I did a little note about them as well. I am a process and research engineer by trade so I know a bit about stats...not a phD by any means though. I think some discussion if and/or how they might be useful would be good. Unfortunately I have IE on the computer will all my data so I can't post much of anything on here. The spreadsheet is a good tool though Nash...thanks! There is a chat box and you can see when others are online...we should try and use that to bounce ideas around...even live chat during games we are watching to post ideas. Check out the spreadsheet...let me know if its useful and I can get to work.

Ha nice to see a colleague, I am a statistician too, but not quite an excel guy I suggested to do an index of recent success, but looking at the graphs makes much more sense. I never used them before, but it is nice to have a tool beside the raw numbers.

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Really like this one, good performer both recently (last 3 seasons) and longer term (6+ seasons). Nice Consig.

get money!

Consigliere, those graphs are an awesome tool to discern between long term and short term trends. Many thanks to you and all who have put in hard labor on the spreadsheet.

I would argue that having time demarcations in the graph would be helpful as you'd be able to gauge frequency of occurrence in a given time span from where we may be able to drill down to the variable level. For example, if the occurrence of teams FTA<21 rises, then maybe we can deduce a slight shift in the way games are called. Of course, this is simply icing and would depend on time required.