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NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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#1651

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Quote Originally Posted by Consigliere View Post
Here's something interesting I thought of for an angle when I was watching some games last night (I find the more games I watch the more angles I think of...I've started taking notes while I watch for SDQL mining)....a team that has put themselves in a big hole a number of times at almost ANY point during the last few games except for the 1Q (too variable) but is handicapped to be the better team at a road game, actually is the better team and will cover the points. The rest for both teams needs to be in the "normal" range, the total range also needs to be "normal" with a slight bias to a bit slower pace, and the line can't be too big, less than 5.........for some reason can't post the SDQL (stupid internet explorer)...will have to wait till I get home or check out the google doc...150 picks and 67% win rate
I really like your mindset here, most of my own queries are combined to logic. There must be a reason for taking that step.
If only we could use a parameter like Strength of Schedule. I think there is a real value in there.
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#1652

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Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
I really like your mindset here, most of my own queries are combined to logic. There must be a reason for taking that step.
If only we could use a parameter like Strength of Schedule. I think there is a real value in there.
Just figuring out how to put the power of the summation together...I think that might be one of the most powerful tools in SDQL because you can put filters in but the outcome doesn't have to happen every time for it to flag the matchup, just the # of times you specify in the last N games...very cool stuff.
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#1653

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Quote Originally Posted by Consigliere View Post
NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


 11-12-14 - 11:05PM PST


Play: Pistons+7, Wizards (-120)


SDQL:
(tA(points@ season) -3) > tA(points, N=3) and (oA(points@season) + 3) < oA(points, N=3) and rest = 3 and o:rest > 0 and playoffs = 0 and (site = home or (site = away and p:site = home))
SDQL: English
Really like this one, good performer both recently (last 3 seasons) and longer term (6+ seasons). Nice Consig.
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#1654

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NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


11-12-14 - 3:30PM CT


Play: Orlando ov 193.5 (-110)


SDQL:
198.5>=total>=190 and p:AL and p:division=opo:division and WP<=25 and o:WP<50 and o:rest<2

SDQL: English Play over a total of 190 to 198.5 with a team of a division road loss; bad team of 25% or less win % vs a team on less than 2 days rest and has not won more than 50% of their games.
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#1655

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NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13 - PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2 - NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - PORT OV 209 (1.1 to win 1)

Consigliere - DET +7 (1.2 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - ORL OV 193.5 (1.1 to win 1)
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#1656

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Wow, so many on Portland/Denver, minus well join the party.

11-12-14, TOB: 4:46pmCT (TOB timestamped on my Sbrforumspreadsheet)

Play: Portland +3
SDQL: WP<25 and P:L and p: points>99.5 and rest>1.5and op: points>101 and total > 195

We’re playing AGAINST an bottom of the leauge team who losttheir last game vs this opp (Portland)
but scored 99.5 points or more in their previous game, while coming off morethan a day &a half of rest, with their oppoent scoring more than 101 pointsin their previous game , and the total is over 195
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#1658

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Quote Originally Posted by FlyinAir View Post
Something to take a look at for Wednesday

F and p:AL and p:margin<=-6.5 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-7.5 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006 and line < -9.5
This one was a lot of fun to play with and mine, nice job Flyin.

F and p:AL and WP>=o:WP and -14<=line<=-10 and total>=188 and division!=o:division and (op:HD or op:AW) and season>=2006

SU:72-5 (15.35, 93.5%)
ATS:56-20-1 (3.70, 73.7%) avg line: -11.6
O/U:21-53-3 (-6.25, 28.4%) avg total: 201.3
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#1660

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Hey guys, check out the spreadsheet. The Discussions/Chat tab. I posted a couple CUSUM graphs of a couple of the nba trends that I think show some of the power of that statistical charting tool. I did a little note about them as well. I am a process and research engineer by trade so I know a bit about stats...not a phD by any means though. I think some discussion if and/or how they might be useful would be good. Unfortunately I have IE on the computer will all my data so I can't post much of anything on here. The spreadsheet is a good tool though Nash...thanks! There is a chat box and you can see when others are online...we should try and use that to bounce ideas around...even live chat during games we are watching to post ideas. Check out the spreadsheet...let me know if its useful and I can get to work.
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#1661

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Quote Originally Posted by FortySix View Post
If I can, this is my entry

Play the over in Jazz @ Hawks. Nice and simple. Both teams lacking offense in their last game.

t:team=Hawks and total>196 and points<100 and opoints<90
yes, you can have the last spot. Please read post 1613 on how to make an official best bet post.
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#1663

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Conversation here's been great and got my creative juices flowing:

tA(points)>101 and p:TPA>25 and p:TPP<30 and season>2007 and p:FTA<25 and 210>total>200 and p:L

Good offensive team that got burned the previous game by shooting a low 3pt % on a high volume of 3s and lacked aggressiveness (low FTA) tend to continue to struggle offensively the next game. Goes to 1-8 on the total when rest=0.
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#1664

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FlyinAir.. odds need to be posted for this play to count.

[QUOTE=FlyinAir;22978717]Wow, so many on Portland/Denver, minus well join the party.

11-12-14, TOB: 4:46pmCT (TOB timestamped on my Sbrforumspreadsheet)

Play: Portland +3
SDQL: WP<25 and P:L and p: points>99.5 and rest>1.5and op: points>101 and total > 195

We’re playing AGAINST an bottom of the leauge team who losttheir last game vs this opp (Portland)
but scored 99.5 points or more in their previous game, while coming off morethan a day &a half of rest, with their oppoent scoring more than 101 pointsin their previous game , and the total is over 195

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#1665

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11/12 NBA SDQL Best Bet

Well I guess I'll join the party with Portland lol

6:00PM 713 Portland +3 -105 (@ Denver)


AD and rest = 0 and o:rest >= 2 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 35-25 (0.12, 58.3%)
ATS: 42-18-0 (2.66, 70.0%) avg line: 2.5
O/U: 27-33-0 (-2.08, 45.0%) avg total: 193.4


AD and rest = 0 and p:rest = 1 and pp:rest = 0 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 19-14 (0.09, 57.6%)
ATS: 21-10-2 (2.53, 67.7%) avg line: 2.4
O/U: 18-13-2 (2.59, 58.1%) avg total: 192.8


A slight variation on my 1st trend that b2b games and bunched games in general (4 games in 5 days in this case) aren't as taxing to a team in November. When books set the line, rest is one of the factors they use. This trend shows that the books put more weight to playing on a b2b in November than they should, at least for short dogs on the road. It is also slightly stronger than the original trend which was o:rest >= 1. There are some dynamics that may go against this such as the elevation factor and the line movement against it but I feel confident enough that Portland can get the win against a Nuggets team that is just plain bad this year. The 3 points is icing on the cake!
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