A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and opoints>100 and opp
I tried to leave the following as wide open as possible. It involves a 4 games in 5 nights coming off a HFW. The big difference came when I put the total as greater than 200. It is certainly something to look into even if we have to work on it to make it better. It seems like the opposing teams that covered in the situations have been better teams than the Celtics.
A and rest = 0 and p:rest = 1 and pp:rest = 0 and p:HFW and total > 200
SU: 10-36 (-7.35, 21.7%) ATS: 13-32-1 (-4.71, 28.9%) avg line: 2.6 O/U: 24-22-0 (0.99, 52.2%) avg total: 208.4
Scratch the above. The quality of the opposing team makes a big difference. When i put combos of op:L and opp:L, it changed the results drastically.
Crazy part here is that the total has been bet up to 210 from an opener of 205. Might just hope for a slow opening 5 mins and live bet the over trying to get a better line.Originally Posted by hyahya
A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op
Hi Hyahya, when I put this into the SDQL query it doesn't show any active games today...Crazy part here is that the total has been bet up to 210 from an opener of 205. Might just hope for a slow opening 5 mins and live bet the over trying to get a better line.
Love this one Ronald, a lot of ways to play with it as a base, from division/no-division to opponent previous wins/losses as a fave/dog, etc.An interesting one I came across yesterday. No games fit this today but I like the underlying theory behind it... that b2b on the road maybe aren't so important early in the season. (Or at least, the books put more emphasis on it than it really is)
AD and p:AD and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 32-17 (1.31, 65.3%) ATS: 37-12-0 (3.71, 75.5%) avg line: 2.4
The January errata you were seeing is mostly 2011, which was a strike/lockout-shortened season, which actually proves your basis for the query even more.
Nice work!
Last edited by Mako-SBR; 11-05-14 at 05:21 PM.
No plays tonight, but this is one to watch out for. You can also consider op:ADW and it looks better albeit a smaller sample size. Pretty self explanatory.
H and p:ADW and rest = 0 and o:rest = 0 and op:AD
SU: 62-59 (1.68, 51.2%) ATS: 44-76-1 (-2.72, 36.7%) avg line: -4.4 O/U: 79-40-2 (4.10, 66.4%) avg total: 194.0
Thanks! And yes I'd forgotten about that strike... makes sense now!Love this one Ronald, a lot of ways to play with it as a base, from division/no-division to opponent previous wins/losses as a fave/dog, etc.
The January errata you were seeing is mostly 2011, which was a strike/lockout-shortened season, which actually proves your basis for the query even more.
Nice work!
It's probably because of the smilies. Everywhere you seeHi Hyahya, when I put this into the SDQL query it doesn't show any active games today...
A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op: points>100 and opp: points>100 and oppp: points>100
Unreal is right... and nailed it tonight!Bulls
Unreal last three years.
HD and p:AW and p:points < 105 and 2011<=season and o:rest<2
Last edited by Ronald S.; 11-06-14 at 12:57 PM.
Winner, Toronto! Nice one Ronald.Thanks! And yes I'd forgotten about that strike... makes sense now!
Very interesting query for the under in Spurs @ Rockets tomorrow..
HF and p:AW and p
When you had the total of 201 to it, it has a 0-4 under record
I like these more though Forty Six, ontop of the trends I could find giving the OVER credit.
-team=Spurs and p:HW and margin<4.5 and A and op
-team=Spurs and p:HW and margin<4.5 and A and o:team=Rockets
Guys there is a way to avoid smilies when posting. Please consider my post #1276 on page 37. Doing this will keep the thread clean going forward. Note...one may have to click 'edit' twice!It's probably because of the smilies. Everywhere you see
A and p:L and total>=200 and p:margin>-4 and op: points>100 and opp: points>100 and oppp: points>100
tA(FTA/FGA, N=3) > 0.35 and oA(FTA/FGA,N=3)<0.2 and playoffs = 0 and AF and season>2000 This is a trend I put together that starts by picking out the away favourites that is getting to the line an a lot (as a ratio of FTA to FGA) in there last few games against the home team that is not. This looks to be a really solid OVER play with Z score above 3, has a good margin against the total but sample size only about 60 . The angle here is an inside or driving oriented team vs a perimeter oriented team. The key to the over is that one of the teams is scoring a bunch with the clock stopped and the other team is going to have to chuck it up a lot to compete, likely with a lot of 3s which pumps the score up a bit more too. I think the fact that this is an AF as well helps because there is a quality of team differential and so there is likely to be a scenario at the end of the game where there are lots of FTs and 3s which bumps up the final 2-3 minutes of scoring.
