No problem pip!Originally Posted by pip2
Heh! Nice catch Ronald. I should have read it 10 minutes earlier!
Great thread going here. I have just found the forum thanks to Nash13 and am going to use this thread to post my plays. I started a thread in the sports database forum but because my system is a combination of a large number of sdql trends and some personal model work I've done I couldn't just post sdql so was asked not to continue that thread.
Right now the system is in its first year but has shown profit in every year of the last 15 except for one year where it was down 0.2 units. Of course this is back testing not live results.
So far we are 2-0-1 ats. Winners with Washington oct 30 and heat nov 1 and a push last night on the seventy sixers. I bought down to 11 on that game hence the push.
I will be tracking leans as well and those are 2-0 with Dallas and golden state covering ats on nov 1.
Finally there are two picks tonight Suns-6.5 and Cavs -2. I bought down the Cavs to -2 here. Primary angles here are looking at away favourite value. Suns coming of the previous big road loss to Utah are primed for a bounce back and Cavs with some extra rest look good.
LeBron James againts TrialBlazers?
Thanks Pip, and now the ML is in favor of the Wizards due to heavy public action. I will take the Knicks in this gameGees, the moneyline is -120, and you have a 600+ sample size giving NY a 71% to win straight up. That really does look inviting.
Good work Ronald!One last thing on this trend... It is stronger when the previous game was also on the road, especially on the moneyline!
AD and p:A and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 50-31 (0.38, 61.7%) ATS: 57-24-0 (2.78, 70.4%) avg line: 2.4
AD and p:H and rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 31-29 (-0.72, 51.7%) ATS: 36-22-2 (1.76, 62.1%) avg line: 2.5
Really like this play Sportsmind. Pelicans and Hornets coming off low scoring games against the defensive minded Grizzlies (both teams played Grizz lately) and also the ref crew on this game are over kings so far this season. Check out their history. I use the covers website for ref assignments and statsReally loving this thread, especially to confirm picks that you come to using other methods.
HF and p:AD and p:margin<0 and p:fouls>25 and rest=0 and line>-6 and o:rest>0
SU: 35-21 (2.38, 62.5%) ATS: 25-30-1 (-0.75, 45.5%) avg line: -3.1 O/U: 37-18-1 (5.78, 67.3%) avg total: 195.6
A quality team with no rest after a tough game in which they weren't expected to win, and they got into foul trouble. The next game they go home and play more loose on defense against a quality opponent who has rest.
Feel free to criticize.
Only thing troubling to me is no plays in 2013...doesn't mean it's not going to hit though. Could be a very specific situation (not a bad thing) or it's over fitted.Really like this play Sportsmind. Pelicans and Hornets coming off low scoring games against the defensive minded Grizzlies (both teams played Grizz lately) and also the ref crew on this game are over kings so far this season. Check out their history. I use the covers website for ref assignments and stats
To me, if it was overfitted, it would be because of the "line>-6". But if you take that out completely, you still have a nice one: O/U:59-34-2 (4.06, 63.4%)Only thing troubling to me is no plays in 2013...doesn't mean it's not going to hit though. Could be a very specific situation (not a bad thing) or it's over fitted.
Play on a team previously scoring more than 108pts playing as an home favorite more than -5 vs an opp on more than 2.5 days of rest and the total is over 202.5...play on Nets -5....and this game is projected to go over the high total of 206
SU; 43-8
ATS; 31-19-1
SDQL; points>108 and HF and line<-5.0 and o:rest>2.5 and total>202.5
I can see that. It luckily hit but I didn't love it. Feel like it could use a couple tweaks to expand it, and then factor in the opposing team's offensive ability.To me, if it was overfitted, it would be because of the "line>-6". But if you take that out completely, you still have a nice one: O/U:59-34-2 (4.06, 63.4%)
Hey fellas,
So I have been a bit of a stalker lately and went through the entire thread and picked up most of the SDQL posted by all of you. Here are the ones that are active for NBA Wednesday. Will try and do this everyday if it helps? Or do you guys sign up to killersports and get the notifications when a saved trend re-appears?
This one is a play on the Nuggets @ Kings
H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011
Under in Grizzlies @ Suns
team=Grizzlies and p:H and A and n:A and nn:A and nnn:H and season>=2011
Play against Nets vs Wolves
p:margin>=25 and line>p:line and season>=2013
Cavs @ Jazz
p:ADL and p:ats margin>0 and op:AFL and op:margin<=-10
H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012
Hope this helps
p:total>210 and p:AO and H and rest=0 and o:rest>0
It was the only one of 3 query bets that won for me yesterday. So I like it!I can see that. It luckily hit but I didn't love it. Feel like it could use a couple tweaks to expand it, and then factor in the opposing team's offensive ability.
I think you first provided this one:p:total>210 and p:AO and H and rest=0 and o:rest>0
H and line > -6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season >= 2011
oops -- forty six already beat me to this one...
Last edited by pip2; 11-05-14 at 08:39 AM.
Thanks for sharing the fruits of your legwork fortysix. I did the same thing a few weeks ago, but I'm pretty sure I missed a bunch. I likeHey fellas,
So I have been a bit of a stalker lately and went through the entire thread and picked up most of the SDQL posted by all of you. Here are the ones that are active for NBA Wednesday. Will try and do this everyday if it helps? Or do you guys sign up to killersports and get the notifications when a saved trend re-appears?
This one is a play on the Nuggets @ Kings
H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011
Under in Grizzlies @ Suns
team=Grizzlies and p:H and A and n:A and nn:A and nnn:H and season>=2011
Play against Nets vs Wolves
p:margin>=25 and line>p:line and season>=2013
Cavs @ Jazz
p:ADL and p:ats margin>0 and op:AFL and op:margin<=-10
H and line>4 and total>=195 and rest<2 and p:margin>=-8 and season>=2012
Hope this helps
(p:ADL and p:ats margin>0 and op:AFL and op:margin<=-10) the best of these I think.
