JAnthony's query
If the series game is either game 1 or game 2......average score is 117.1-107.5 with an average total of 207
Home team dominates ATS as well.
Bombs away.
playoffs=1 and round=2 and seed>o:seed and -5<=line<=-2 and season>=2010
playoffs=1 and seed>o:seed and p:AL and HF and round>1 and total<200 and series game=3
playoffs=1 and seed>o:seed and p:AL and HF and round>1 and total>200
Good fortune everyone.
Overreaction to previous game...
Similar to yesterday's pacers/wizards game where the total was brought down by a few points as compared to game 3 because of its low score, i think we are seeing an overreaction to the total in the SA/Port game tonight. One thing we can all agree upon is that Vegas knows what they are doing...they know that everyone is thinking that Portland can't play defense, the Spurs are invincible (well that's true, but that's a different story...) and the over is an easy hit today. Game 3 closed at 208...and Game 4 is at 210.5...and will probably keep going up.
To further investigate, i came up with this query. In english, we're looking at a game played at the same site as the previous game (hence, cannot be game 1) in the playoffs but with the total increased by 2 or more points. Even if you remove the parameter I included showing that the away team won, the data is still fairly compelling. I think I will wait for everyone to push the over number even higher and then pound the under.
Thoughts? BOL!
A and p:AW and total>p:total+2 and playoffs=1 and series game!=1
Nice find Cougs!
Loveit.....good fortune.
H and playoffs=1 and P:AL and total>=200 and op:margin >=-4 and season>=2009
3-10-1 with total>=210
Good luck.
nice hit slickerOriginally Posted by b1slickguy
H and playoffs=1 and P:AL and total>=200 and op:margin >=-4 and season>=2009
3-10-1 with total>=210
Good luck.
Thanks, buddy.nice hit slicker
Good luck.
.
round>2 and tA(points-o: points)>oA(points-o: points) and series game=1 and HF
Trend points to UNDER SA/OKC.
Last edited by green7; 05-17-14 at 06:35 AM.
Going versus better pointspread performers game 1, round 3
round=3 and series game=1 and tS(ats margin, N=10)-oS(ats margin, N=10)>0 and H
SU: 6-7 (0.92, 46.2%) ATS: 2-10-1 (-4.19, 16.7%) avg line: -5.1 O/U: 7-6-0 (5.04, 53.8%) avg total: 192.0
Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.15 46.1 18.69 75.0 6.00 33.8 5.69 11.38 40.69 20.77 19.38 12.62 23.2 23.8 25.8 25.3 99.0 Opp 36.08 45.5 20.38 80.8 5.54 36.0 4.62 10.62 41.31 22.54 18.54 13.23 24.2 24.0 23.9 25.2 98.1
Showing 1 to 15 of 15 entries
Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot May 18, 2003 Sun 2002 Pistons Nets home 74-76 1&5 2.0 181.5 -2 0.0 -31.5 -15.8 -15.8 L P U 0 May 19, 2003 Mon 2002 Spurs Mavericks home 110-113 3&1 -7.0 198.5 -3 -10.0 24.5 7.2 17.2 L L O 0 May 22, 2005 Sun 2004 Suns Spurs home 114-121 1&2 -2.5 206.5 -7 -9.5 28.5 9.5 19.0 L L O 0 May 23, 2005 Mon 2004 Heat Pistons home 81-90 8&3 -4.0 181.5 -9 -13.0 -10.5 -11.8 1.2 L L U 0 May 24, 2006 Wed 2005 Mavericks Suns home 118-121 1&1 -6.0 221.0 -3 -9.0 18.0 4.5 13.5 L L O 0 May 21, 2007 Mon 2006 Pistons Cavaliers home 79-76 3&2 -6.0 176.5 3 -3.0 -21.5 -12.2 -9.2 W L U 0 May 21, 2008 Wed 2007 Lakers Spurs home 89-85 4&1 -7.0 196.0 4 -3.0 -22.0 -12.5 -9.5 W L U 0 May 20, 2009 Wed 2008 Cavaliers Magic home 106-107 8&2 -8.5 185.5 -1 -9.5 27.5 9.0 18.5 L L O 0 May 16, 2010 recap Sun 2009 Magic Celtics home 88-92 5&2 -6.5 189.5 -4 -10.5 -9.5 -10.0 0.5 L L U 0 May 15, 2011 recap Sun 2010 Bulls Heat home 103-82 2&3 -1.5 181.0 21 19.5 4.0 11.8 -7.8 W W O 0 May 17, 2011 recap Tue 2010 Mavericks Thunder home 121-112 8&1 -6.0 192.5 9 3.0 40.5 21.8 18.8 W W O 0 May 27, 2012 recap Sun 2011 Spurs Thunder home 101-98 6&5 -5.5 204.5 3 -2.5 -5.5 -4.0 -1.5 W L U 0 May 22, 2013 recap Wed 2012 Heat Pacers home 103-102 6&3 -8.0 182.0 1 -7.0 23.0 8.0 15.0 W L O 1 May 18, 2014 recap Sun 2013 Pacers Heat home 2&3 2.5 181.5 May 19, 2014 recap Mon 2013 Spurs Thunder home 4&3 -5.5 208.5
playoffs=1 and series game=1 and site=home and line>0
playoffs=1 and series game=2 and site=home and p:line>0 and line>0
Last edited by chopperocker; 05-17-14 at 09:41 AM.
team=Heat and playoffs=1 and series game=1 and site=away
You guys aren't doing anymore SDQL's for the remaining games?
No need really. It's easy enough to find good spot without SDQL.You guys aren't doing anymore SDQL's for the remaining games?
I kind of doubt there is a good answer for this, but I want throw the question out there just in case: When I use the "rest" parameter, it sharpens up my queries a good bit, I think. But stipulating the rest parameter too closely frequently seems to reduce the sample size too much as well, to the point where it is almost not worth using the "rest" parameter. Anybody got any tips/advice on getting around this issue?
One thing i have been doing is kind of triangulating. I'll make a query using "rest=0" and try to mentally combine the (usually) low sample size results of that query with another two queries that are exactly the same except they are using "rest>=0" and "rest<2". These queries don't kill the sample size so much, but are also less precise. But triangulating like that for every query is a bit if a pain in the ass...any other ideas?
