playoffs = 1 and series game = 5 and tS(ou margin, N=5) >10 and HF and po:TPP>35 and p:TPP>35 and p:AL
SU:7-3 (5.20, 70.0%)
ATS:3-7-0 (-1.95, 30.0%)
avg line: -7.2
O/U:4-6-0 (-2.95, 40.0%)
avg total: 198.6
versus Rockets
Last edited by green7; 04-30-14 at 05:21 PM.
playoffs = 1 and series game = 5 and tS(ats margin, N=5) >10 and AD and p:HL
SU: 2-14 (-14.94, 12.5%) ATS: 3-13-0 (-8.19, 18.8%) avg line: 6.8 O/U: 9-7-0 (-1.66, 56.2%) avg total: 189.2
versus Mavs
As you experiment, are you getting any kind of feel for the best way to segment these point averages? I'm wondering if it's possible that a team can score, let's say, 8 percent more than normal, and it doesn't affect its expected ATS percentage much. But then if the same team scores 9 percent more than usual, it's ATS percentage suddenly doubles or something...Originally Posted by emceeaye
Hi pip2,
Still playing around with various combinations of higher or lower than average quarter totals as a function of one of the two teams and as a function of both teams in a game and seeing its effects on OU and SU/ATS.
For example, below is a query of a situation similar to the Warriors/Clippers game last night in which one team scores around 35% above average for the first quarter while the other team scores around 8% lower than the average for that quarter.
P1>=1.30*Average(P1@team and season) and P1<=1.3479*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1<=.93*Average(o:P1@team and season) and o:P1>.90*Average(o:P1@team and season)
SU: 50-24 (4.80, 67.6%)
ATS: 42-30-2 (4.11, 58.3%) avg line: -0.7
O/U: 46-27-1 (6.17, 63.0%) avg total: 194.4
So, after only one quarter of play, you can get some predictive value of the whole game. Will the books modify the link e immediately at the end of the first quarter to account for it, I'm not sure. But I would like to investigate and see if an edge could be gained.
You can still play with single quarter points besides the first one and favoring one side over the other in twrms of points scored by differing degrees and then seeing what results we can get that might help...
Blah blah blah just get to the plays.
S2>=1.197*Average(S2@team and season) and S2<=1.237*Average(S2@team and season) and o:S2>=1.023*Average(o:S2@team and season) and o:S2<=1.063*Average(o:S2@team and season)
SU: 131-42 (6.18, 75.7%)
ATS: 114-53-6 (4.49, 68.3%) avg line: -1.7
O/U: 133-34-6 (11.33, 79.6%) avg total: 196.5
This is what it was at half time of rockets blazers game. Avge total game points for games like these is 207.8 which we can use as new accurate line to compare against what books give us, right?
Sorry I'm not picking up on where you are getting the 207.8
Oh wait a minute now I see you just added up the team and opponent average scores for that list of games...
I'm not sure it works well to use that average against what the books provide, because there appears to be so much variation between the individual numbers in the list of games. But I am no statistics expert...
Last edited by pip2; 04-30-14 at 11:09 PM.
Pip,
Yeah you might be right there, especially given that the total in this last quarter is going higher than average for the 4th quarter in the list of games. So yes, there's variation which may not be predictable. However, when we compare the fourth quarter total points to the average 4th quarter points for the sizeable number of games yielded by the query above, this 4th quarter may be a bit of an outlier of a score. If we knew the standard deviation for fourth quarter scores and if 4th quarter scores were normally distributed (which they may not be), then we can see how likely or unlikely it would be to get a fourth quarter point total that is shaping out here.
Last edited by emceeaye; 05-01-14 at 09:23 AM.
Ha, actually I take that back. Towards the beginning of the 4th, it was looking to be higher scoring than what it actually ended up being. 207 was pretty close to the outcome here, which although doesn't prove anything, is at least consistent.
This is fun, but the challenge is writing and entering the query and making the bet before the end of the commercial break.
Last edited by emceeaye; 05-01-14 at 01:33 PM.
Could be true, but if the sample size is large enough for a particular situation, then adding the average team and opponents total points seems like it may be a reliable enough reflection of what the total points will be in the game. Adding total>=200 or <=200 has been helping with giving more reliable results. I'm finding so far that sometimes the book's total line is practically identical to what you get when you add the average total points scored by the two teams in the results of the query and sometimes its different to differing extents. Still playing with this to see if any edge can be gained. I'm mostly looking at O/U, but also looking for ATS edge.Sorry I'm not picking up on where you are getting the 207.8
Oh wait a minute now I see you just added up the team and opponent average scores for that list of games...
I'm not sure it works well to use that average against what the books provide, because there appears to be so much variation between the individual numbers in the list of games. But I am no statistics expert...
Last edited by emceeaye; 05-02-14 at 01:45 PM.
A and series game = 6 and round<4 and t:series wins = 3 and p:TPP>35 and p:HW
A and series game = 6 and round < 4 and t:series wins = 3 and p:TPP > 35 and p:HW
SU: 14-11 (1.08, 56.0%) ATS: 13-12-0 (1.24, 52.0%) avg line: 0.2 O/U: 6-18-1 (-5.48, 25.0%) avg total: 190.4
UNDER Spurs, Raptors
LiarGame gave green7 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
elimination games
playoffs=1 and o:series wins=3 and H
If one adds "and series game=7" you'll see a high past history of home and UNDER success which may bode well for the Clippers, Thunder and Pacers.....linesmaker is enticing people to take the visiting teams.
In all other series games except game 7s, past history favors the visiting team and UNDER in this situation.
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as simple as it gets
playoffs=1 and series game=7 and H
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Big chalk going to come through and put the universe back in order? We'll see...
HF and playoffs=1 and series game=7 and seed < o:seed and line<=-4.5
LiarGame gave Mako-SBR 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
3-1 so far on totals and ATSas simple as it gets
playoffs=1 and series game=7 and H
Dodged the Portland loss today thanks to the -4.5 line modifier. Amazing how SDQL can be so accurate at times, wish it were always that way.Big chalk going to come through and put the universe back in order? We'll see...
HF and playoffs=1 and series game=7 and seed < o:seed and line<=-4.5
