NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

OKC/MEM halftime: 2nd half odds are pk, and OKC leads by 7, effectively making a new game spread of -7 for OKC:

playoffs = 1 and 9 > M2 > 5 and -9 < line < -5

SU: 50-8 (8.72, 86.2%)
ATS: 33-24-1 (1.84, 57.9%) avg line: -6.9
O/U: 30-28-0 (-1.05, 51.7%) avg total: 189.8

....loss

anyone have something on the Clips????

anyone have something on the Clips????



-3<=line<=3 and P:L and P:margin>=-3 and p:L and p:margin>=-3 and p:division=po:division



H and p: points<100 and pp: points<100 and tA(points)>=100 and 1.5<=line<=3 (saved from someone else)

Good luck JMon,....still have not pulled the trigger


HD and playoffs = 1 and series game = 4 and p:TPP < 35 and po:TPP < 35 and round = 1 and p:L

Originally Posted by green7

Good luck JMon,....still have not pulled the trigger


HD and playoffs = 1 and series game = 4 and p:TPP < 35 and po:TPP < 35 and round = 1 and p:L

I don't all the noise going on with the clips, but will play for a unit. good luck

Looking at these query results side by side:

season=2013 and 20 < Wizards:Nene:minutes

season=2013 and 0=Wizards:Nene:minutes

WSH appears to score 2 points more in the first quarter when he plays. Hopefully the books don't factor that into the quarter lines...

Loss...

Trying again:

playoffs = 1 and series game > 3 and -6 < line < -2 and p:W and pp:L and ppp:W and total < 200

SU: 14-10 (1.25, 58.3%)
ATS: 10-14-0 (-2.60, 41.7%) avg line: -3.9
O/U: 6-18-0 (-4.73, 25.0%) avg total: 184.7

Originally Posted by pip2

OK as a total rookie, not likely I am getting this correct, but here is my stab:

quarter scores P1 >= 1.20 * Average(P1@team and season) and quarter scores P2 >= 1.20 * Average(P2@team and season) and quarter scores P3 <= Average(P3@team and season)

Or the way I wrote it, before killer sports translated it:

P1>=1.20*Average(P1@team and season) and P2>=1.20*Average(P2@team and season) and P3<=Average(P3@team and season)

SU: 607-274 (6.49, 68.9%)
ATS: 579-280-22 (5.18, 67.4%) avg line: -1.3
O/U: 707-160-14 (12.23, 81.5%) avg total: 196.1

Hi Pip2,

Thanks for your help. I'm realizing that your and my original queries were not only including games wherein the 1st and 2nd scores were each 20% above average for those quarters, but also only those games in which one team was responsible for the above average scoring. So I added the below terms to the query.

P1>1.19*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1>1.19*Average(o:P1@team and season) and P2>1.19*Average(P2@team and season) and o:P2>1.19*Average(o:P2@team and season)

U:64-74 (-0.67, 46.4%)ATS:59-76-3 (-0.09, 43.7%) avg line: 0.6O/U:135-3-0 (26.52, 97.8%) avg total: 200.9

This one is just adding to the query the third quarter totals in which a team and their opponent both had scores below average for those quarters...I think.

P1>1.19*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1>1.19*Average(o:P1@team and season) and P2>1.19*Average(P2@team and season) and o:P2>1.19*Average(o:P2@team and season) and P3<average(p3@team and="" season)="" o3<average(o3@team="" season)

SU:	10-10 (-1.70, 50.0%)
ATS:	10-10-0 (-0.82, 50.0%)	avg line: 0.9
O/U:	20-0-0 (19.82, 100.0%)	avg total: 196.9

</average(p3@team>

Hi Pip2,

Thanks for your help. I'm realizing that your and my original queries were not only including games wherein the 1st and 2nd scores were each 20% above average for those quarters, but also only those games in which one team was responsible for the above average scoring. So I added the below terms to the query.

P1>1.19*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1>1.19*Average(o:P1@team and season) and P2>1.19*Average(P2@team and season) and o:P2>1.19*Average(o:P2@team and season)

U:64-74 (-0.67, 46.4%)ATS:59-76-3 (-0.09, 43.7%) avg line: 0.6O/U:135-3-0 (26.52, 97.8%) avg total: 200.9

This one is just adding to the query the third quarter totals in which a team and their opponent both had scores below average for those quarters...I think.

P1>1.19*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1>1.19*Average(o:P1@team and season) and P2>1.19*Average(P2@team and season) and o:P2>1.19*Average(o:P2@team and season) and P333@team="" season)

SU:	10-10 (-1.70, 50.0%)
ATS:	10-10-0 (-0.82, 50.0%)	avg line: 0.9
O/U:	20-0-0 (19.82, 100.0%)	avg total: 196.9

Right, the P1 is just for one team! How about S1, which seems to be for the combined scoring?

S1>1.19*(Average(P1@team and season) + Average(o:P1@team and season)) and S2>1.19*(Average(P2@team and season) + Average(o:P2@team and season))

That yields no results, so I better take more time to think about it...

OK, so I think using S1 and S2 sucked because S2 is the total of the first two quarters scoring. There wasn't much point to using S1 and S2 anyways because you already had what you wanted...

So now I'm trying to see where you are going with this. If you caught one of these games beforehand, at those odds you could make a killing. But by the time the game gets to the third quarter, and both teams have scored so much, aren't the live-in-play totals going to have gotten larger as well?

Originally Posted by pip2

OK, so I think using S1 and S2 sucked because S2 is the total of the first two quarters scoring. There wasn't much point to using S1 and S2 anyways because you already had what you wanted...

So now I'm trying to see where you are going with this. If you caught one of these games beforehand, at those odds you could make a killing. But by the time the game gets to the third quarter, and both teams have scored so much, aren't the live-in-play totals going to have gotten larger as well?

Hi pip2,
Still playing around with various combinations of higher or lower than average quarter totals as a function of one of the two teams and as a function of both teams in a game and seeing its effects on OU and SU/ATS.

For example, below is a query of a situation similar to the Warriors/Clippers game last night in which one team scores around 35% above average for the first quarter while the other team scores around 8% lower than the average for that quarter.

P1>=1.30*Average(P1@team and season) and P1<=1.3479*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1<=.93*Average(o:P1@team and season) and o:P1>.90*Average(o:P1@team and season)

SU: 50-24 (4.80, 67.6%)
ATS: 42-30-2 (4.11, 58.3%) avg line: -0.7
O/U: 46-27-1 (6.17, 63.0%) avg total: 194.4

So, after only one quarter of play, you can get some predictive value of the whole game. Will the books modify the link e immediately at the end of the first quarter to account for it, I'm not sure. But I would like to investigate and see if an edge could be gained.

You can still play with single quarter points besides the first one and favoring one side over the other in twrms of points scored by differing degrees and then seeing what results we can get that might help...

Under trend I like:
playoffs==1 and (site=='home' and line >0) and seed in [5 , 6 , 7 , 8] and series game>=6

Bottom seed playing at home as dog in Game 6 or Game 7.
I would like to add that if memory serves me right, than at least two of the three Over results were when the dog was in elimination spot and not the favorite, like it is for Oklahoma and Indiana.

P1>=1.13*Average(P1@team and season) and P1<=1.20*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1>=1.13*Average(o:P1@team and season) and o:P1<=1.20*Average(o:P1@team and season) and total>=200

SU: 74-78 (-0.51, 48.7%)
ATS: 72-74-6 (-0.35, 49.3%) avg line: 0.2
O/U: 103-48-1 (5.12, 68.2%) avg total: 208.9

D and tA(o: points) >= 103 and opo: points >= 110 and op2o: points >= 110 and op3o: points >= 110

10-0ATS/8-2 SU month of april

playoffs = 1 and series game = 6 and tS(ou margin, N=5) >10 and p:TPP>35 and HD

SU:	1-6 (-10.57, 14.3%)
ATS:	2-5-0 (-7.79, 28.6%)	avg line: 2.8
O/U:	0-6-1 (-15.86, 0.0%)	avg total: 184.7

versus Hawks, Grizzlies, Warriors

UNDER Hawks, Grizzlies, Warriors