If you're feeling it play it, JA.....and if you're not you'll find something that you resonate with.
small home favorites doing well ATS in the playoffs since 2009
playoffs=1 and HF and -3<=line<=0 and season>=2009
gl
Looked into the exact same scenario. Though, it has huge up and down fluctuation. Not consistent enough for me. But, anyway, I do think that Raptors is a good bet today, regardless any trends.Originally Posted by Cougs
small home favorites doing well ATS in the playoffs since 2009
playoffs=1 and HF and -3<=line<=0 and season>=2009
gl
Thanks for the NHL insight. I was going to look at the playoffs, just haven't had the time.And, I've done research on the NHL playoffs going back manually to check results (the database doesn't have the capability to check series games in the playoffs) and I found an interesting tidbit.
In round one of the playoffs the past 5 years, teams that won game one, the winner of the that game has a record in the subsequent game (2) of 18-30.
A home winner in game one, is 11-17 game two
An away winner in game one, is 7-13 game two.
I found this to be fun, interesting and hopefully lucrative.....use it if you're feeling it. To those that might be miffed that I used a basketball thread to talk about ice hockey.....so sorry.
The long strings of ATS "L"'s seem to go away if you add in a "and round=1" to the query. Does doing so reduce the sample size too much?Looked into the exact same scenario. Though, it has huge up and down fluctuation. Not consistent enough for me. But, anyway, I do think that Raptors is a good bet today, regardless any trends.
At halftime bkn vs tor:
playoffs=1 and series game=1 and HF and 5>M2>-5
SU: 13-8 (3.05, 61.9%)
Lines up with 2nd half spread of Tor -4, which tor could only win by winning straight up...
Does anyone know if "5.28" is a z-score or another statistic like a chi-square statistic?
SU: 39-15 (5.28, 72.2%)
I passed on TOR as I wasn't convinced about that team personally but I tailed this query for the other three games.HF and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and p:AL and day
Making things as simple as possible....good fortune.
In all sports it seems that there's a statistical blip, albeit a small one, of going chalk on home favs in the first round/first game of the playoffs. Works for me.
Ha, we wish, it's simply the average margin of victory.Does anyone know if "5.28" is a z-score or another statistic like a chi-square statistic?
SU: 39-15 (5.28, 72.2%)
For me personally, if I'm going to go with a smaller sample (and it doesn't get much smaller than playoff queries unfortunately) it has to be an 80%+ winner over that span, minimum, with a +5 or more average win margin ATS, along with a few other things.The long strings of ATS "L"'s seem to go away if you add in a "and round=1" to the query. Does doing so reduce the sample size too much?
And even then it's a total gamble as you're never going to be sure on so few games.
I liked green's small sample query enough to tail the stronger teams (no on TOR, yes on LAC/CHI/HOU), but this one just isn't dominant enough for me to throw money on. Good data either way though pip.
Last edited by Mako-SBR; 04-19-14 at 02:40 PM.
guys help with this ,zig zag teory:
postseason
home team
lost last game
spread -4/-14.5
where is it that bettors can expect to catch the best value possible with NBA Zig-Zags these days?guys help with this ,zig zag teory:
postseason
home team
lost last game
spread -4/-14.5
Double-digit dogs are 41-22-1 ATS - 65.2 percent - and favorites of 4.5 or more point off a loss of 20 or more are 29-8 ATS • 78.3 percent.
:Thanks Mako. The more I pay attention, the shorter the learning curve will be...I liked green's small sample query enough to tail the stronger teams (no on TOR, yes on LAC/CHI/HOU), but this one just isn't dominant enough for me to throw money on. Good data either way though pip.
Thanks!Hey, guys! Playoffs are here! Gonna try to find some situations in playoffs as well.
Here's one worth looking at:
H and playoffs=1 and round=1 and series game=1 and total<=185
I was researching different 1st round "extremes" (lowest, highest lines and totals) and stumbled upon this trend pointing over.
Happy Easter to all and thanks for the help
i have to share this amazing query from gg sdb ,dont ask me what it say lol.
playoffs==1 and (site=='home' and line + 0<0) and total>167 and total<=190 and seed in [2 , 3 , 4] and series game<7 and round<4 and streak>-4 and o:streak>-4 and o:streak<6 and rest<5 and WP<73.6 and p:TPP<45.6 and op:TPP<55 and op:TO>7 and p:FGP<55 and op:FGP<57 and pooints>64 and p:assists>10 and p:assists<30 and opo:assists>8 and p:FTP<94.2 and po:rebounds>29 and po:rebounds<55 and po
ffensive rebounds>3 and opo
SU: 107-9 (13.80, 92.2%) ATS: 100-15-1 (7.52, 87.0%) avg line: -6.3 O/U: 67-48-1 (1.29, 58.3%) avg total: 183.1
WOW! Just, WOW!i have to share this amazing query from gg sdb ,dont ask me what it say lol.
playoffs==1 and (site=='home' and line + 0<0) and total>167 and total<=190 and seed in [2 , 3 , 4] and series game<7 and round<4 and streak>-4 and o:streak>-4 and o:streak<6 and rest<5 and WP<73.6 and p:TPP<45.6 and op:TPP<55 and op:TO>7 and p:FGP<55 and op:FGP<57 and po
SU: 107-9 (13.80, 92.2%) ATS: 100-15-1 (7.52, 87.0%) avg line: -6.3 O/U: 67-48-1 (1.29, 58.3%) avg total: 183.1
