Looks like a good bet with the short line, JAOriginally Posted by JAnthony
p:LF and p:ats margin<=-7 and op:WD and AF and rest=0
Gonna take this ML.
p:LF and p:ats margin<=-7 and op:WD and AF and rest=0 and line>=-2
Yeah, also just tested it out with a short -3<=line<=0.Looks like a good bet with the short line, JA
p:LF and p:ats margin<=-7 and op:WD and AF and rest=0 and line>=-2
thanks guys, on my way now !
thanks guys, on my way now !
Can u pls share ur picks..thanks!
Is there a way to input team totals?
Question about evaluating the "strength" of a trend...
Do you guys ever look at the "avg line, avg total" and compare that to the stat breakdowns of "Team, Opp"? So, for instance, in the trend above:
p:AL and A and season=2013 and line<=8 and division!=o:division and p:line<2
We see:
ATS: 42-22-0 (0.37, 65.6%) avg line: -0.2
And then we see:
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.03 44.9 19.52 77.0 7.91 36.1 4.16 11.12 42.98 21.41 21.45 13.86 25.2 25.6 24.7 24.8 101.5 Opp 37.25 44.8 18.67 76.6 7.70 35.3 4.06 10.91 42.92 21.48 21.81 14.48 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.0 100.9
What I'm thinking is that for the game tonight with a 4.5-pt spread, the average results don't line up with the percentages. If the games are averaging a 1-pt finish, wouldn't that suggest an underdog cover, rather than the other way around? Should we be filtering favorites & underdogs into separate trends? I'm wondering how the positive & negative numbers might be skewing results - we're looking at favorites/underdogs, not actual integers.
Use additional filters or modify the existing ones within the query to specifics of the game in question.Question about evaluating the "strength" of a trend...
Do you guys ever look at the "avg line, avg total" and compare that to the stat breakdowns of "Team, Opp"? So, for instance, in the trend above:
p:AL and A and season=2013 and line<=8 and division!=o:division and p:line<2
We see:
ATS: 42-22-0 (0.37, 65.6%) avg line: -0.2
And then we see:
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.03 44.9 19.52 77.0 7.91 36.1 4.16 11.12 42.98 21.41 21.45 13.86 25.2 25.6 24.7 24.8 101.5 Opp 37.25 44.8 18.67 76.6 7.70 35.3 4.06 10.91 42.92 21.48 21.81 14.48 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.0 100.9
What I'm thinking is that for the game tonight with a 4.5-pt spread, the average results don't line up with the percentages. If the games are averaging a 1-pt finish, wouldn't that suggest an underdog cover, rather than the other way around? Should we be filtering favorites & underdogs into separate trends? I'm wondering how the positive & negative numbers might be skewing results - we're looking at favorites/underdogs, not actual integers.
Take a look at the KS trend I posted earlier today.
Then see JMon's reply. He had already saved this trend with a slight modification negating the play.
I put the gun back in the holster.
Good luck.
I see your point here, but you have to understand one thing - the 'average' as such is not the same as 'most of the games', it can be pretty far from that.Question about evaluating the "strength" of a trend...
Do you guys ever look at the "avg line, avg total" and compare that to the stat breakdowns of "Team, Opp"? So, for instance, in the trend above:
p:AL and A and season=2013 and line<=8 and division!=o:division and p:line<2
We see:
ATS: 42-22-0 (0.37, 65.6%) avg line: -0.2
And then we see:
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.03 44.9 19.52 77.0 7.91 36.1 4.16 11.12 42.98 21.41 21.45 13.86 25.2 25.6 24.7 24.8 101.5 Opp 37.25 44.8 18.67 76.6 7.70 35.3 4.06 10.91 42.92 21.48 21.81 14.48 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.0 100.9
What I'm thinking is that for the game tonight with a 4.5-pt spread, the average results don't line up with the percentages. If the games are averaging a 1-pt finish, wouldn't that suggest an underdog cover, rather than the other way around? Should we be filtering favorites & underdogs into separate trends? I'm wondering how the positive & negative numbers might be skewing results - we're looking at favorites/underdogs, not actual integers.
Thanks again. Dodged a loss.I have this saved in my personal db. I have since made adjustments...at H, 210 > total > 207.5 not very good
Kept a clean sheet 3-0 for the night.
Good luck.
2-1 thanks to the contributions of you guys. Much appreciated considering i dont know my head from my ass in nba.
2-0 on the second.A and p:AFL and 1<= rest<=2 and season>=2005
p:AL and A and season=2013 and line<=8 and division!=o:division and p:line<2
It seems that the third situation was eliminated because of the line movement, but it suggested that we fade Hawks tonight. Hit rate was above 70%
2-0 here toop:LAF and p: points<=90 and rest>=1 and tA(points)>=103
Found this tasty 'under'.
this is the best rate...I have this saved in my personal db. I have since made adjustments...at H, 210 > total > 207.5 not very good
H and 209 > total > 201 and 60 >= WP >= 51 and Sum(ou margin@team and season, N=5) >= 36 and season > 2007 and playoffs = 0
what do you guys do when two trends colide with each other? let's say: i have two trends for Spurs to cover and one for Nuggets. Do you leave it out or do you take the Spurs because 2 trends are 1 more than the other?
