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NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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#498

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Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
I like it...I will play..

817 Clippers -9 (-110) risk 220.00 win 200.00 (NBA)
03/14/14 19:03:01
#28877505
Thanks JMon, I am on the them for 220 as well. Hope it hits!

Quote Originally Posted by Mako-SBR View Post
Jmon is right this one isn't bad at all, good job Luck.

For game sample sizes everyone is different but generally you want to see as large a sample as possible. I try to shoot for 50+ games from 2006-2013, or roughly 6-7 plays per season. It's ok to go lower for sure, just make sure your filters make logical sense (there's a reason behind them beyond just better numbers).

Nice work and welcome to the thread!
Great advice, thanks Mako. Looking forward to contributing to the group!
#500

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Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
School is in season...

P:L and Po: points >= 110 and op:FL and op:division = opo:division and 2009 <= season
To me, this is something I have difficulties with. Yes, this trend has done well since 2009. However, the three seasons before that it lost and going back ten years you have an ATS record of 41-65, 32-65 between 2003 and 2008.

The question I always ask is why would the trend change so dramatically? Personally, I don't see a reason for the change.

If someone knows why there would be such a huge difference in the past few years from the previous ten seasons, I would love to hear it.

Good talk here in this thread.
#501

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Quote Originally Posted by Wojo View Post
To me, this is something I have difficulties with. Yes, this trend has done well since 2009. However, the three seasons before that it lost and going back ten years you have an ATS record of 41-65, 32-65 between 2003 and 2008.

The question I always ask is why would the trend change so dramatically? Personally, I don't see a reason for the change.

If someone knows why there would be such a huge difference in the past few years from the previous ten seasons, I would love to hear it.

Good talk here in this thread.
You learned from it!
#505

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Quote Originally Posted by cofaga View Post
p:al and op:margin>10 and p:hw and 65>wp>o:wp and -10<=line<=-5 and h

my logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

any input is welcomed thanks
tomorrow bulls.
#506

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Quote Originally Posted by Wojo View Post
No, I really didn't. I have known this for over 10 years.

Maybe you learned from it?


Yes, I have learned that when I found this situation just three years ago I have made large amount of cash on it. Will it go south, stop trending? It may and out the database it will go, like many before. But one thing that is most important here, I can promise you I will make more money on this situation than I will lose, before and if I dump it. Just like one of my stocks. Perhaps I will just keep my situations to myself.
Last edited by JMon; 03-15-14 at 06:57 AM. Reason: spelling
#508

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Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
Yes, I have learned that when I found this situation just three years ago I have made large amount of cash on it. Will it go south, stop trending? It may and out the database it will go, like many before. But one thing that is most important here, I can promise you I will make more money on this situation than I will lose, before and if I dump it. Just like one of my stocks. Perhaps I will just keep my situations to myself.
Excellent point. I was originally only voicing an issue I have had using trends over the years. You are correct in that some trends work for awhile and then stop. Some only work a few months as was the case with a 2013 trend earlier used in this thread.

Using logic as some people have in their posts explaining their trend I believe helps weed out trends that have a greater chance of going bad. You obviously are doing a great job of knowing when to stop using a trend and when to keep following it. I haven't done as good of job at that as you have.

great conversation! And I am learning!