So... in the interest of education, can you share why you do or don't think your 187 <= total <= 212 query might be overrigged?
Z, ATSm, -5P, basically it hits most of the majors, but in the area it doesn't quite meet the standard it's strong enough in the others to have a sort of compensating factors.Originally Posted by tonywayne
So... in the interest of education, can you share why you do or don't think your 187 <= total <= 212 query might be overrigged?
But even saying all that, as I mentioned earlier though it's different for everyone in terms of what systems they'll allow themselves to pursue despite perhaps not meeting their own criteria, versus the ones they will allow. Giving certain ones a "pass" so to speak.
It's a strange thing, but some of them just 'work'...kind of like how you keep giving a crazy girl a pass because she's great in bed, despite your friends telling you to dump her, the 'right' thing for your sanity.
One of my criteria is "don't try to guess when a team will break out of a slump". We read all the time about how "Team X should be able to right the ship against Team Y tonight". That's why I don't follow systems that bet on teams on losing streaks (ie betting that they'll win/cover one of the next ## of games). Probably better off betting on a team on a winning streak losing, since every team has off nights, especially against opponents they underestimate.
Great analogy, by the way.
I agree with that take personally because the very best (well known) 'streak' guys, no matter how in depth or detailed they are in their handicapping, never seem to be much above 50% over time. No matter what system or tracking they do it always comes back to the mean despite some strong logic and analysis.One of my criteria is "don't try to guess when a team will break out of a slump". We read all the time about how "Team X should be able to right the ship against Team Y tonight". That's why I don't follow systems that bet on teams on losing streaks (ie betting that they'll win/cover one of the next ## of games). Probably better off betting on a team on a winning streak losing, since every team has off nights, especially against opponents they underestimate.
Great analogy, by the way.
As just a single example I'd much rather use say division=o:division (or not) and see a dramatic shift in the ATS win/loss rate in the query I'm fooling with versus seeing a query's results change based on a team 'winning 5 of their last 7 against the spread'...because I don't believe that necessarily means anything moving forward like it would say for a query working well inside the division but poorly when teams plays non-div opponents.
It's a fun game, I'm glad we're seeing so many people get involved because while it can be a bitch to learn upfront the payoffs of knowing how to mine the database teach lessons that last forever. Love it.
great thread, have you looked at the daily killersports nba tipsheet ??, my guess is that it incoropates this same stuff
winnerI've been playing the pacers under when their last game was on the road, and they play at home. The under is 11-5 this season, and while playing on 1 days rest, the under is 9-3 this season.
Also, The under is 11-3 this season when Bostons previous game was at home, and playing on the road. 6-3 on 1 days rest.
The under is also 8-2-2 over the last two seasons when Bostons previous game was at home in which they scored 100+pts and travel to play on the road.
Overnight line movement favors this play as well.
wow,niceOn the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):
F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006
Also on the team featured here:
AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006
As well as this under:
P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006
May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.
winner ,nice work againGoing ahead and posting this one for tomorrow night guys. Hopefully we can get another winner
Basically we are playing a favored team (above .600) to bounce back after losing their last two as favorites with at least 1 day rest against an opponent that has won their last two games and in a possible letdown scenario. Play tomorrow night is OKC -4!
SU: 21-1 (12.27, 95.5%) ATS: 16-4-2 (5.98, 80.0%) O/U: 11-11-0 (1.55, 50.0%)
Unfortunately most of their work isn't of much use. Too many small sample team-based trends (and worse, player trends) that don't offer an advantage over the line in the long run (i.e. are meaningless).great thread, have you looked at the daily killersports nba tipsheet ??, my guess is that it incoropates this same stuff
I do use some of their base rough ideas to go explore other more realistic queries (league/situation-based) though, so anything that helps you brainstorm new ideas can be a resource.
wow,nice
We are crushing it, 3-1-1 today and just a half point away from a true 4-1. I will take that any day.
Great job all, keep up the good work!
mako i would like to colaborate here,how do you find a winning situation ??Unfortunately most of their work isn't of much use. Too many small sample team-based trends (and worse, player trends) that don't offer an advantage over the line in the long run (i.e. are meaningless).
I do use some of their base rough ideas to go explore other more realistic queries (league/situation-based) though, so anything that helps you brainstorm new ideas can be a resource.
We are crushing it, 3-1-1 today and just a half point away from a true 4-1. I will take that any day.
Great job all, keep up the good work!
Great work going on in this thread. This SDQL stuff is awesome
We are crushing it, 3-1-1 today and just a half point away from a true 4-1. I will take that any day.
Great job all, keep up the good work!
what was the other 2 plays that i missed ??
figgy the Indy game was also to win ATS (-11,pushed), in addition to the Under on it (was keeping it quiet to see if anyone would spot itwhat was the other 2 plays that i missed ??), and I had another query pointing at SAC to beat DET (+3, lost) which I thought was already posted in the thread?
So many pages now that I'm getting confused as to the queries we've already put up and the ones we have yet to put up...
thanks for your answer,and so how do you find a winning situation ??
Mako,
Can you check the following SDQL because this seems to good to be true: If correct it is saying 32-0 ATS with a play tomorrow night
AD and A(W)<=0.500 and p:L and pp:L and op:L and opp:L and oA(W)>=0.500 and season>=2005
