NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

tA(o: points)<94 and op: points>100 and opp: points>100 and oppp: points>100 and opppp: points>100 and HD and 185
Take away the underdog and you get a much larger sample but only hits 63% of the time

I've been playing the pacers under when their last game was on the road, and they play at home. The under is 11-5 this season, and while playing on 1 days rest, the under is 9-3 this season.

Also, The under is 11-3 this season when Bostons previous game was at home, and playing on the road. 6-3 on 1 days rest.
The under is also 8-2-2 over the last two seasons when Bostons previous game was at home in which they scored 100+pts and travel to play on the road.

Overnight line movement favors this play as well.

Anyone get -1.5 on the Hawks? I pushed.

Originally Posted by JMon

Anyone get -1.5 on the Hawks? I pushed.

I pushed too

Originally Posted by JMon

Anyone get -1.5 on the Hawks? I pushed.

I took Hawks ML

I had $700 @ -1.5 and $300 @ -2

Originally Posted by NBACover

I've been playing the pacers under when their last game was on the road, and they play at home. The under is 11-5 this season, and while playing on 1 days rest, the under is 9-3 this season.

Also, The under is 11-3 this season when Bostons previous game was at home, and playing on the road. 6-3 on 1 days rest.
The under is also 8-2-2 over the last two seasons when Bostons previous game was at home in which they scored 100+pts and travel to play on the road.

Overnight line movement favors this play as well.

Hopefully this hits, I was already on the Pacers under

Originally Posted by JayHorne3

Going ahead and posting this one for tomorrow night guys. Hopefully we can get another winner

Basically we are playing a favored team (above .600) to bounce back after losing their last two as favorites with at least 1 day rest against an opponent that has won their last two games and in a possible letdown scenario. Play tomorrow night is OKC -4!

SU:	21-1 (12.27, 95.5%)
ATS:	16-4-2 (5.98, 80.0%)
O/U:	11-11-0 (1.55, 50.0%)

Just noticed I forgot to paste the SDQL code on this post, sorry guys.

(F and p:LF and pp:LF and tA(W)>=0.600 and rest>0 and op:W and opp:W and season>=2008)

On the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):

F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

Also on the team featured here:

AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006

As well as this under:

P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006

May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.

Mako - that first one seems incredibly specific. Between the previous margin, the current line, and the window of total points... it feels a little like a forced trend that happens to generate a decent result.

For me in that game, my gut is saying "the home team just isn't playing well right now... 5th game in 8 days... visitors covering spreads well the last week or two..." One of those "smell test" things, I guess. I'm just not seeing a double-digit spread as a good thing for them right now (would have been all over it a month ago).

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

On the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):

F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

Also on the team featured here:

AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006

As well as this under:

P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006

May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.

Took the team, small on the second under. The home team there is adjusting to C.B. some, and there are some high-foul refs there, but the reasoning in the SDQL is sound, so hopefully someone comes out and plays defense. I particularly like this late in the season towards playoff time, although adding that qualifier makes the numbers slightly worse with a much smaller sample size, I think there's some variance at work there and teams do tend to play defense in this spot down the wire even more.

Originally Posted by Noleafclover

Took the team, small on the second under. The home team there is adjusting to C.B. some, and there are some high-foul refs there, but the reasoning in the SDQL is sound, so hopefully someone comes out and plays defense. I particularly like this late in the season towards playoff time, although adding that qualifier makes the numbers slightly worse with a much smaller sample size, I think there's some variance at work there and teams do tend to play defense in this spot down the wire even more.

Originally Posted by tonywayne

Mako - that first one seems incredibly specific. Between the previous margin, the current line, and the window of total points... it feels a little like a forced trend that happens to generate a decent result.

For me in that game, my gut is saying "the home team just isn't playing well right now... 5th game in 8 days... visitors covering spreads well the last week or two..." One of those "smell test" things, I guess. I'm just not seeing a double-digit spread as a good thing for them right now (would have been all over it a month ago).

Knew I'd get grief as soon as I posted them. Absolutely 100% knew it.

Posted them anyway, because this is NOT a "picks" thread. Again, to be clear...this is NOT a picks thread.

It's an educational thread, hopefully to get more people involved and firing at SDQL, towards the creation of more systems/analysis/etc.

I won't defend any of the queries I post, it's a waste of time. Not the overall goal.

Someone new, taking those queries, and building on them...now THAT is the goal. BOL.

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

On the under for this one (witholding all pick team names, want lurkers in the thread to have to go to SDQL with the query to get the pick, i.e., learn it and begin experimenting and contributing):

F and p: AL and p: margin<=-8 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-10.5 and game number<=68 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006

Also on the team featured here:

AF and p: HW and pp: HW and p: margin>8 and pp: margin>8 and division!=o: division and line<-4 and season>=2006

As well as this under:

P: FL and 75>=WP>=60 and 75>=o: WP>=60 and total>=200 and o: rest>0 and season>=2006

May be two others later if the lines continue to move, we'll see.

Solid stuff Mako, appreciate it

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Knew I'd get grief as soon as I posted them. Absolutely 100% knew it.

Posted them anyway, because this is NOT a "picks" thread. Again, to be clear...this is NOT a picks thread.

It's an educational thread, hopefully to get more people involved and firing at SDQL, towards the creation of more systems/analysis/etc.

I won't defend any of the queries I post, it's a waste of time. Not the overall goal.

Someone new, taking those queries, and building on them...now THAT is the goal. BOL.

Well, I wasn't talking about "picks" either. I was positing a question about the query (ie. is it too specific/tailored?), which seems reasonable and appropriate. I'm specifically addressing "Mako's Parameter #6". "We can always find the pattern we need to back up what we want to happen" and all that...

I'm sorry I shared my gut feeling, and I will refrain from that in the future.

Originally Posted by tonywayne

Well, I wasn't talking about "picks" either. I was positing a question about the query (ie. is it too specific/tailored?), which seems reasonable and appropriate. I'm specifically addressing "Mako's Parameter #6". "We can always find the pattern we need to back up what we want to happen" and all that...

I'm sorry I shared my gut feeling, and I will refrain from that in the future.

No worries, education is the key. Anything towards that goal is a good one.