NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

Originally Posted by cofaga

P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

My logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

Any input is welcomed thanks

That's actually pretty good cofaga, I like the logic. You can tweak it a hundred ways but at the end of the day you're playing off a base revenge scenario where the opponent comes in hot off a big win (and is thus potentially overvalued even as an away dog).

With that -5 to -10 line parameter you set the dog isn't getting much beyond the standard away court bonus, which is great considering the home team is a superior performing team on the season who likely just lost the prior meeting on a fluke. That line filter tends to fit with the core logic, which is what you want.

The sample size is low at 4-6 plays per season but that can be an advantage to some extent because if you're on the fence about the system in terms of it being valid or not it's not going to bankrupt you or lose you a disproportionately high amount of units as you play it to find out since it's grouped in with all your other system plays.

If say you make 100 or more total plays in an NBA season on average from the systems you've created or follow, then adding in a borderline low-volume scenario or two like this one won't hurt you badly if it winds up being a 40-50% winner...and of course if it wins more than 52.4% then it just adds to the others as well.

Nice work.

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

That's actually pretty good cofaga, I like the logic. You can tweak it a hundred ways but at the end of the day you're playing off a base revenge scenario where the opponent comes in hot off a big win (and is thus potentially overvalued even as an away dog).

With that -5 to -10 line parameter you set the dog isn't getting much beyond the standard away court bonus, which is great considering the home team is a superior performing team on the season who likely just lost the prior meeting on a fluke. That line filter tends to fit with the core logic, which is what you want.

The sample size is low at 4-6 plays per season but that can be an advantage to some extent because if you're on the fence about the system in terms of it being valid or not it's not going to bankrupt you or lose you a disproportionately high amount of units as you play it to find out since it's grouped in with all your other system plays.

If say you make 100 or more total plays in an NBA season on average from the systems you've created or follow, then adding in a borderline low-volume scenario or two like this one won't hurt you badly if it winds up being a 40-50% winner...and of course if it wins more than 52.4% then it just adds to the others as well.

Nice work.

Thanks for the input!

Originally Posted by cofaga

P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

My logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

Any input is welcomed thanks

Winner, Toronto

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

The sample size is low at 4-6 plays per season but that can be an advantage to some extent because if you're on the fence about the system in terms of it being valid or not it's not going to bankrupt you or lose you a disproportionately high amount of units as you play it to find out since it's grouped in with all your other system plays.
Nice work.

I am not as adamant about having more than 6 plays a season on a trend if it works for enough years with a large enough total sample.

I don't understand what you mean that this system is "grouped in with all your other system plays" and thus "it's not going to bankrupt you". How do you consider systems to be "grouped in" with other systems?

Thanks, just trying to understand your philosophy.

Oh, forgot to say it appears to be a very nice system!

Mako..got your situation off the group

All school is in session...looking for translation here. 2pts!!! Only one losing year- 2007 (with filters)

H and tA(points-o: points)<=-9 and opo: points>=100 and oppo: points>=100 and opppo: points>=100

additional filters:

and rest<4 and line<10

Originally Posted by cofaga

P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

My logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

Any input is welcomed thanks

nice work of sdql bud

Next session

Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

1. Home team
2. total over or equal to 200
3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
5. after 42+ games
6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.

Very nice trend, JMon.

If you consider fundamentals, Nelson and Oladipo are questionable tonight. Could be problems for a weak offensive team.

Originally Posted by JMon

Next session

Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

1. Home team
2. total over or equal to 200
3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
5. after 42+ games
6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.

Never would have thought it would be that particular game tonight...but that's the beauty of SDQL mining, to point out situations for analysis that wouldn't reveal themselves otherwise.

Who is it lurkers, solve the riddle. It's a good exercise too, because knowing how to pull average points for and against on the season for teams and their opponents from SDQL is a truly great filter in a ton of solid scenarios. You can do it!

Originally Posted by JMon

Mako..got your situation off the group

All school is in session...looking for translation here. 2pts!!! Only one losing year- 2007 (with filters)

H and tA(points-o: points)<=-9 and opo: points>=100 and oppo: points>=100 and opppo: points>=100

additional filters:

and rest<4 and line<10

Home and in all prior away games this season against this opponent, opponent's points are 10 more total than team's. Opponent has given up 100+ in last 3.
?

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Never would have thought it would be that particular game tonight...but that's the beauty of SDQL mining, to point out situations for analysis that wouldn't reveal themselves otherwise.

Who is it lurkers, solve the riddle. It's a good exercise too, because knowing how to pull average points for and against on the season for teams and their opponents from SDQL is a truly great filter in a ton of solid scenarios. You can do it!

I believe I know how to put this SDQL together, but I have no idea what is the correct wording for "points allowed" (defense)?

Originally Posted by JMon

Next session

Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

1. Home team
2. total over or equal to 200
3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
5. after 42+ games
6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.

H and total>=200 and p:W and pp:W and p:margin>=10 and pp:margin>=10 and game number>=42 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and 98>=tA(ooints)>=92

For some reason, I can't edit the query. Tried numerous times to get rid of the emoticon but you can figure it out.

Originally Posted by cash$bro91

H and total>=200 and p:W and pp:W and p:margin>=10 and pp:margin>=10 and game number>=42 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and 98>=tA(ooints)>=92

Should be instead of the emoticon. For some reason, I can't edit.

Thanks for showing me another way, how to draw averages. Just a tip, next time you can leave out those p:W parameters, since margin indicates that it was a win already.

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Never would have thought it would be that particular game tonight...but that's the beauty of SDQL mining, to point out situations for analysis that wouldn't reveal themselves otherwise.

Who is it lurkers, solve the riddle. It's a good exercise too, because knowing how to pull average points for and against on the season for teams and their opponents from SDQL is a truly great filter in a ton of solid scenarios. You can do it!

I cheated, I've got average points for/against saved from a previous post. Wouldn't have thought of it either, certainly leery of backing this team on the road to score enough points to keep up and do their part, but the total's really low for the way the other team's been playing, and a couple things I look at in my handicapping routine support it for the most part, so I'll be on it despite their typical away performance.

Thanks Jmon

Originally Posted by Noleafclover

I cheated, I've got average points for/against saved from a previous post. Wouldn't have thought of it either, certainly leery of backing this team on the road to score enough points to keep up and do their part, but the total's really low for the way the other team's been playing, and a couple things I look at in my handicapping routine support it for the most part, so I'll be on it despite their typical away performance.

Definitely a white-knuckle bet, especially with that road team being dinged up with some injuries combined with the home team's tendency to reduce starter minutes in games like these.

Which is why the right thing to do is exactly what you mentioned leaf, combine it with your other capping processes to make the most informed decision. I put a half unit on it for fun as it's always nice to try out new systems the same day they're posted to the board as we did last night from cofaga's which won.