NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

Originally Posted by b1slickguy

Good in theory, but leaving out 36 plays that show a 72% win rate. (10-26 ATS +15u)
Good luck.

Especially when eliminating that large chunks of games doesn't have anything to do with improving or playing to the foundational core logic of the play, which in this case is fading a team coming home after two successful away games. Doesn't matter if they're a dog or fav because the logic stands that the team and linemakers and public are now aligned the other direction on the team's next home game, overconfident/trap/etc, and the line is potentially full of value going the other way against them.

I always aim for the largest samples, over the most amount of seasons, as possible when I tinker with strings.

Can't remember if I posted this one before, but the play is the Under:

total<=199.5 and p: points>=108 and p: overtime=0 and pp: points>=102 and op: P1+op:P2>=57 and op: W

Did I enter this right? Return results on to see how Grizzlies do on their first game of a three game road trip since the 2011 season.

The under is 9-1

team=Grizzlies and p:H and A and n:A and nn:A and nnn:H and season>=2011

BULLS/NETS > team=Nets and rest>=1 and o:rest>=0 and H and season=2013
Nets are 15-8 SU 65%
Nets are 14-8-1 O/U 62%

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Can't remember if I posted this one before, but the play is the Under:

total<=199.5 and p: points>=108 and p: overtime=0 and pp: points>=102 and op: P1+op:P2>=57 and op: W

Hey just wondering what your logic on this is?

tA(points)+10oints and tA(points)+10oints and tA(points)+10oints and total<=190 and H

seems to point to the over but of course your data is the greater sample size

Originally Posted by Mako-SBR

Especially when eliminating that large chunks of games doesn't have anything to do with improving or playing to the foundational core logic of the play, which in this case is fading a team coming home after two successful away games. Doesn't matter if they're a dog or fav because the logic stands that the team and linemakers and public are now aligned the other direction on the team's next home game, overconfident/trap/etc, and the line is potentially full of value going the other way against them.

I always aim for the largest samples, over the most amount of seasons, as possible when I tinker with strings.

I agree that the larger the sample the better. Also, I believe that normally, it is better to have a longer period of time than just the last 2+ seasons. However, there are trends that are best to trust early as the linemakers & the public evolve more rapidly every season.

I wasn't "throwing out 36 games", I was just stating the fact that if the team we are betting against is a dog, it has a more successful record. That is even more evident in a larger data sample going back to 2008 on where the >=0 is 5-32 SU, 10-27 ATS while the favorite is 38-32 SU, and 29-41 ATS.

I prefer fewer qualifiers in trends as compared to what you see many pro touts doing. I do consider D or F to be a very valuable qualifier.

GL2A!

Fellas have you locked in any plays for today at all? If so can you please advise. Love this thread. Thank you

Originally Posted by FortySix

Fellas have you locked in any plays for today at all? If so can you please advise. Love this thread. Thank you

&2.

Originally Posted by Wojo

I wasn't "throwing out 36 games", I was just stating the fact that if the team we are betting against is a dog, it has a more successful record. That is even more evident in a larger data sample going back to 2008 on where the >=0 is 5-32 SU, 10-27 ATS while the favorite is 38-32 SU, and 29-41 ATS.

I prefer fewer qualifiers in trends as compared to what you see many pro touts doing. I do consider D or F to be a very valuable qualifier.

GL2A!

This is one the most important things I do when looking a particular situation. Especially when the situation is open to D/F and H/A etc. Thus: similarity in a given situation with the game that is active within it. I like to see , perhaps, a replica of what's going to happen (with what happened in the past)...hopefully.

I think your statement was misunderstood.

Originally Posted by b1slickguy

Modified the sdql from posts #3 and #4 giving it a larger sample size extending more than just a few months.
Anyone have any other sdql's to compliment or contradict the plays produced below?
Good luck.

H and line>-6 and p:AW and pp:AW and season>=2011

nope...luv grizz, laying off bulls

Learning time.....I'll give the translation....can anyone, except Mako or slick guy, give the SDQL... a play that I am on tonight...

1. playing at home
2. after a loss by 10 points or more
3. against oppt. off 4 straight losses of 10 points or more

Originally Posted by Wojo

So it makes no difference to you if a team is a dog or is favored?
Good luck.

Can be a dog or a favorite if not more than -5.5.
Favorites laying 6 or more are filtered out, as they are only hitting at a 50% clip in the given sdql.
Good luck.

kings

Originally Posted by JMon

Learning time.....I'll give the translation....can anyone, except Mako or slick guy, give the SDQL... a play that I am on tonight...

1. playing at home
2. after a loss by 10 points or more
3. against oppt. off 4 straight losses of 10 points or more

H and p:margin<-9.5 and op:margin<-9.5 and opp:margin<-9.5 and oppp:margin<-9.5 and opppp:margin<-9.5

What do I win?

Go Kings!
(thanks for sharing that trend and your prior comments regarding my post)

Originally Posted by JMon

Learning time.....I'll give the translation....can anyone, except Mako or slick guy, give the SDQL... a play that I am on tonight...

1. playing at home
2. after a loss by 10 points or more
3. against oppt. off 4 straight losses of 10 points or more

H and p:margin<=-10 and op:margin<=-10 and opp:margin<=-10 and oppp:margin<=-10 and opppp:margin<=-10

that's some good odds, thanks for the info