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NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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#76

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Quote Originally Posted by Dynobites View Post
Looking at trends for this Mia/Okc game.

The under is 5-1 L6 scenarios in which the Heat previous win was on the road, scoring more than 100 pts - with their next game (not vs OKC) at home. --Same situation for the Thunder, in which the under is 3-1 L4 scenarios, or 8-4 L12--

The under is 4-2 L6 scenarios in which the Thunder previous win was on the road, in which they scored more than 100pts, their previous previous win was on the road, their previous previous previous game was a win. Last time the Thunder played the Heat in this situation the won by 17pts.
(Here's the cord for that one: team=Thunder and p:AW and points > 100 and pp:AW and ppp:W)

Only played with this for twenty minutes but I'm pounding the under of 206.5.
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#77

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Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
Thanks! I don't post there much anymore, but still subscribe. I am also amazed there is not much traffic as there used to be. Anyway, I saw your question and new the answer to it, but seen you fig it by yourself. . Don't hesitate to drop me a note if you need some help.

I make most of my money using SDQL in MLB...2 years of b2b 40u+ using solely SDQL. I have over 300 situations saved in the database. I am itching for bases

Can't wait!
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#79

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Quote Originally Posted by Wojo View Post
Hi Dynobites,
Having a data sample of 4, 6, or even 12 games isn't mathematically very reliable. Just something to consider. GL2A!
Very true unfortunately, and it's part of the reason team trends usually cause bankroll drama for those that believe in them. I prefer situational plays that have at least 5+ successive winning seasons behind them for that very reason.

Quote Originally Posted by Noleafclover View Post

That's sick. BTW all, heat qualify as revenging a home-opener ats loss of 10+. However, I think a significant reason that situation does so well is because the huge disappointment influences perception and the line for the following game - but perception of the Heat is still high and the line is still giving a lot of respect.

I'm thinking of parlaying them with the over anyway, because I don't think their D can shut down OKC, so I feel if they do cover it goes over. And there are other reasons to like the over that I'll leave unstated here. Only worry of an okc no-show and under is if Westbrook comes out sub-zero - even cool he'll increase the pace of the game.
Nice read Leaf, tailed it with a half unit after reading your synopsis.

Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post

Thanks! I don't post there much anymore, but still subscribe. I am also amazed there is not much traffic as there used to be. Anyway, I saw your question and new the answer to it, but seen you fig it by yourself. . Don't hesitate to drop me a note if you need some help.

I make most of my money using SDQL in MLB...2 years of b2b 40u+ using solely SDQL. I have over 300 situations saved in the database. I am itching for bases
Thanks J, looking forward to MLB because I have no systems for it as it's not a sport I have experience betting and am excited to see what others with winning seasons come up with. Saw your nice NHL query today in the group btw and definitely saved it.
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#81

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Quote Originally Posted by husky View Post
I love this thread. I am interested in using 2-3 teams in moneyline parlays. So do any of you have any insight of any subsets that hit at a high rate ATS using favorites? My idea is that I would then take these teams on the moneyline. Thoughts?
I personally don't use the SDQL to determine moneyline parlays. I realize they have become popular.

I am more like Mako looking for longer term consistent league-wide trends.

Short term small data-set team trends, like Dynobites is posting, historically have not done well.

But, who knows, maybe they will produce a lot of winners. I won't be following them, though.

Even longer term team trends are difficult to understand when you have a high-turnover in players and coaches.

But, it's your money.

GL2A!!!!!!
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#83

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Here's a nice one I've been using that is active on the Bulls/Heat game today (bet the over).

Premise behind it is that you're catching a team that usually doesn't have strong offense after a game in which they established a rhythm and scored far more points than was expected...and that the higher ouput will then continue the next game to push it over the predicted total:

AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006
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#85

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Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
Nice mako...do you use "group bys" for quicker filtering? They are wonderful
Ha, before I learned about that I was manually copy/pasting ranges and groups into Excel while doing research and when I found out about it my first thought was "I don't want to know how many hours I wasted doing it the long way..."
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#86

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Quote Originally Posted by Mako-SBR View Post
Ha, before I learned about that I was manually copy/pasting ranges and groups into Excel while doing research and when I found out about it my first thought was "I don't want to know how many hours I wasted doing it the long way..."

lol...me too.
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#87

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Quote Originally Posted by Mako-SBR View Post
Here's a nice one I've been using that is active on the Bulls/Heat game today (bet the over).

Premise behind it is that you're catching a team that usually doesn't have strong offense after a game in which they established a rhythm and scored far more points than was expected...and that the higher ouput will then continue the next game to push it over the predicted total:

AD and rest<2 and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and season>=2006

..

make me some cash now, go data mine and give me some good plays
Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 02-25-14 at 09:01 AM.
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