thanks for the response.. has this system / filters been backtested at all?
The 1st Quarter system has not been back tested.Originally Posted by dlunc3
thanks for the response.. has this system / filters been backtested at all?
The other system is hard to back test but what we have looked into it, we saw good results. It is just a difficult filter to back test with other scenarios. Tough to explain.
1Q -
Miami -3 -115
Houston -3.5 -115
Detroit -.5 -115
Charlotte +5 -105
Charlotte should hang around this game. They have been playing well and are at home which they've played well at all season. Ginobli and Leonard both still out and a gimpy Parker being cleared for the game so I do not see the Spurs having the offensive fire power to outscore this defensive minded team. Game should be close the entire game. I believe Charlotte is really undervalued here.
Phoenix ML -165 (Risking 1.65U to win 1U)
Phoenix strikes me as the younger, hungrier team. Key injuries to GSW with Bogut and Lee not suiting up for tonights game really helps the Suns. Phoenix is only a half a game back in the standings and I believe they come out gunning and the better team wins this one. The Warriors have also not fared well in Phoenix in the past. With the Suns young and athletic big men not having to deal with Bogut and Lee, they should all have solid games and be able to dominate the paint and the game.
Well, a 5-0 day for me. I went with Utah +3 and Milwaukee +3.5 instead of Miami & Houston. Took the other 3 here. Thanks guys!
That's great man! Kinda sad because that's the first day the 1Q system went under .500 but things happen. I hate betting on Miami. You only really know that they'll come to play if it's the playoffs.Well, a 5-0 day for me. I went with Utah +3 and Milwaukee +3.5 instead of Miami & Houston. Took the other 3 here. Thanks guys!
Still a winning day so I guess I'll take it. Don't be afraid to share thoughts on plays! I enjoy hearing different angles to betting and it helps me to understand different elements in capping games.
2/8 Results
Charlotte +5 -105
Phoenix ML -165
1Q -
Miami -3 -115
Houston -3.5 -115
Detroit -.5 -115
Today: 3-2 (60%) +.7U
This Week: 13-9-2 (59%) +3.25U
1Q Overall: 30-17-2 (64%) +11.1U
Combined Overall: 58-33-3 (64%) +19.14U
Recap: Not as strong of a day as we wanted but hey, profit is profit. Slowly but surely units will keep going up and up if the quality of the picks are the same each day. Let's try to finish the week off strong tomorrow and get over 20 units overall. Cash out fam
2/9
1Q -
OKC -3 -115
First play of the day. Wang's a bit busy so I'm filling in for him right now. Plays will be scattered for most of the day but we hope to have all of them in before 5:30 EST.
phillyd, i wish u guys good luck today! tailed a couple of games ago and did bad... however, i have seen what you guys are doing n cant seem to catch the high times... BOL.. keepitcummin!
That's great man! Kinda sad because that's the first day the 1Q system went under .500 but things happen. I hate betting on Miami. You only really know that they'll come to play if it's the playoffs.
Still a winning day so I guess I'll take it. Don't be afraid to share thoughts on plays! I enjoy hearing different angles to betting and it helps me to understand different elements in capping games.
Thanks! Yeah, I noticed that about the o/u .500 on 1Q. It does happen. I totally agree on Miami; any time they play a bad team, especially on the road, it just lands as "that's just the kind of game Miami won't show up for". (Of course, I second-guessed myself out of putting a couple units on Utah to win outright; I think their ML was something like +400. D'oh!)
I'm happy to share how I came up with a pick, I just didn't want to invade your thread. There was another one I was following at one point where I apparently overshared and got someone yelling at me...
For 1Q plays, I look at a few things: for both spread and scoring - season average, last 3 games, last 1 game, and home/away. I compare the season average to the current line, as well as the last 3 games. I don't think going back more than 3 games is very valuable - other than the streakiest of players or teams, a 3-game cycle seems to fit most game variables. I look at last 1 game and home/away to make sure I'm not overlooking anything. Other than a team missing several starters, I tend to ignore "player X is out", since most teams should be capable of picking up the slack.
Not the start we wanted but we'll rebound! Kinda a ticky tack foul on Stoudemire at the end but it's whatever.
Be back later for the rest of the plays!
tony, if you dont mind me asking something about ur strategy. but when u look at these things that u listed, do u look at whole game stats or just 1Q since the play is 1Q. and if its for 1H then u look at 1H as well? same goes for whole game? thanks and dont mean to high jack this thread. keepitcummin...Thanks! Yeah, I noticed that about the o/u .500 on 1Q. It does happen. I totally agree on Miami; any time they play a bad team, especially on the road, it just lands as "that's just the kind of game Miami won't show up for". (Of course, I second-guessed myself out of putting a couple units on Utah to win outright; I think their ML was something like +400. D'oh!)
I'm happy to share how I came up with a pick, I just didn't want to invade your thread. There was another one I was following at one point where I apparently overshared and got someone yelling at me...
For 1Q plays, I look at a few things: for both spread and scoring - season average, last 3 games, last 1 game, and home/away. I compare the season average to the current line, as well as the last 3 games. I don't think going back more than 3 games is very valuable - other than the streakiest of players or teams, a 3-game cycle seems to fit most game variables. I look at last 1 game and home/away to make sure I'm not overlooking anything. Other than a team missing several starters, I tend to ignore "player X is out", since most teams should be capable of picking up the slack.
I do look at 1Q, 1H, 2H, etc if that's the play I'm considering. TeamRankings.com has a lot of available scoring stats and fits what I was doing manually before I found the site.tony, if you dont mind me asking something about ur strategy. but when u look at these things that u listed, do u look at whole game stats or just 1Q since the play is 1Q. and if its for 1H then u look at 1H as well? same goes for whole game? thanks and dont mean to high jack this thread. keepitcummin...
Memphis -3.5
Dallas ML
Is that it? Not complaining, just trying to figure out bet amounts.
