Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

02/09/14

results

Legacy - PLAY
110A H3 Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
122A O1 fade Portland Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

SAS2 -Play cautiously
64A SAS2 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
65A Sas3 Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
67 SAS2 fade Portland Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

EX - STAY AWAY - At least it's a GREAT system to play the opposite!
110B EX fade Milwaukee Houston 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
114B EX fade Detroit Denver 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2	47.1%	40.0%	43.1%	51.8%	-0.49	-15.38	-34.84	-20.64	-24.32
EX	25.0%	35.9%	38.1%	51.0%	-25.56	-26.45	-41.65	-10.32	-24.18
Legacy	58.3%	58.1%	45.6%	53.4%	3.32	12.31	0.99	48.97	54.19

Sundays known games

Legacy PLAY

123A H3 LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS2 Play small

67A SAS2 Fade Philly LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00
62B SAS2 fade LALakers Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10
68A SAS2 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
69A SAS2 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00

EX - Don't play OR play the opposite!

112B EX fade Cleveland Memphis 2.31 to win 2.10
109C EXfade Orlando Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41
111C EX Oklahoma City 4.85 to win 4.41
115B EX fade NYKnicks Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10

Interesting idea Voodoo. Maybe go to 5 games which would be about 10 days. I'll have to look into this. Maybe ill do some testing starting when EX started failing.

Originally Posted by miczz14

i really feel like SAS2 E Bet would win

SAS2 E BET
POR
ORL
CLE
HOU FADE

these have lost 4 straight?

02/10/14

Results
Legacy PLAY

123A H3 LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

SAS2 Play small

67A SAS2 Fade Philly LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
62B SAS2 fade LALakers Chicago 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
68A SAS2 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
69A SAS2 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

EX - Don't play OR play the opposite!

112B EX fade Cleveland Memphis 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
109C EXfade Orlando Indiana 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost
111C EX Oklahoma City 4.85 to win 4.41 Win
115B EX fade NYKnicks Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 Win

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2	43.8%	40.5%	45.0%	51.8%	-0.39	-15.73	-36.29	-19.74	-23.42
EX	26.1%	36.6%	38.5%	51.0%	-24.16	-25.58	-40.78	-10.97	-15.57
Legacy	50.0%	58.1%	44.6%	53.2%	-2.05	8.22	0.20	47.87	53.09
ALL Systems	36.7%	44.0%	42.5%	52.1%	-26.6	-33.1	-76.9	17.16	14.10

Mondays games - All Star break coming up!

69B SAS2 New Orleans 2.31 to win 2.10
70A SAS2 fade Minnesota Houston 1.10 to win 1.00
71A SAS2 Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

110C EX fade Milwaukee Boston 4.85 to win 4.41
114C EX fade Detroit San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41
115A EX fade Philly Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

Expect a ton of games Wednesday as the NBA takes a break.




So I'm replaying the EX system but this time with 6 game RPI starting Jan 10th which coincides with when the fall started.

Get this - On January 15th I lost SIX "B" games and FOUR "A" games! I'll be really interested to see how this ends up!

02/10/14

69B SAS2 New Orleans 2.31 to win 2.10 Push - have not had a push for a while
70A SAS2 fade Minnesota Houston 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
71A SAS2 Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

110C EX fade Milwaukee Boston 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
114C EX fade Detroit San Antonio 4.85 to win 4.41 Lose
115A EX fade Philly Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00Win

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2	45.0%	41.0%	45.3%	52.1%	-0.70	-15.94	-33.47	-20.05	-23.73
EX	29.2%	36.6%	42.2%	50.9%	-24.60	-27.02	-33.10	-14.82	-19.42
Legacy	50.0%	53.8%	43.1%	53.2%	-2.05	-0.29	0.71	47.87	53.09
ALL Systems	38.9%	42.5%	43.6%	52.2%	-27.4	-43.3	-65.9	13.00	9.94

Tuesdays games

123B H3 LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00

122B O1 fade Portland OKlahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10

63B SAS2 Atlanta 2,31 to win 2.10
71A SAS2 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
66B SAS2 fade Portland Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10

112C EX fade Cleveland Sacramento 4.85 to win 4.41

02/11/14

123B H3 LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 in progress

122B O1 fade Portland OKlahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 in progress

63B SAS2 Atlanta 2,31 to win 2.10 lose
71A SAS2 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
66B SAS2 fade Portland Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 in progress

112C EX fade Cleveland Sacramento 4.85 to win 4.41 Lose

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2	52.6%	43.9%	48.4%	52.5%	2.73	-14.05	-33.83	-19.26	-22.94
EX	26.1%	36.6%	41.3%	50.6%	-29.24	-30.77	-40.69	-19.67	-24.27
Legacy	60.0%	53.8%	43.4%	53.1%	3.69	-0.50	2.12	45.56	52.88
ALL Systems	42.3%	43.5%	44.4%	52.2%	-22.8	-45.3	-72.4	6.63	5.67

Obviously the EX system has failed! Like many systems that look great, with time they go belly up. People often wonder why a system can be so good and then crash but in reality it's because if you find something that completely fails you normally don't continue with it.

I will discontinue the EX after the All Star break - Not sure what I'll do with the SAS2 yet.

The Legacy systems are still doing fine and that is making me pretty happy.

We also have more Legacy games coming up after the break.

Wednesdays games

124A S3 Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

63C SAS2 Atlanta 4.85 to win 4.41
67C SAS2 Philadelphia 4.85 to win 4.41
69B SAS2 New Orleans 2.31 to win 2.10
74A SAS2 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
75A SAS2 Utah 1.10 to win 1.00

There will be some games on Thursday and then a break

SAS2 "A" bets are 45-30 and 22-19 since it's peak

H3
A	20	25	44.4%
B	13	14	48.1%
C	9	3	75.0%

S3
A	14	21	40.0%
B	12	9	57.1%
C	7	2	77.8%

O1
A	30	16	65.2%
B	7	9	43.8%
C	5	4	55.6%

02/13/14

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
SAS2	52.2%	45.5%	48.5%	52.4%	2.30	-12.28	-30.97	-19.90
Legacy	66.7%	50.0%	48.0%	53.3%	6.00	0.50	2.43	47.56

Known Thursday games

123C H3 LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41

73A SAS2 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
75A SAS2 fade LAL Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00

02/18/14

Legacy System YTD Total +43.19 units




I can't seem to erase this jpg. anyone know how??


It's been a good year for the 3 legacy systems so far. Winning pct is coming back after a horrible January

.

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
Legacy	63.6%	54.5%	50.0%	53.5%	6.00	5.01	7.15	43.35

The three Legacy systems

H3 A 21 26 44.7% B 13 14 48.1% C 10 3 76.9% D 3 1 75.0%
S3 A 15 21 41.7% B 12 9 57.1% C 7 2 77.8% D 1 1 50.0% O1 A 30 16 65.2% B 7 9 43.8% C 5 4 55.6% D 2 2 50.0%

I'm always surprised at the lack of Overtime games as the season wears on.

SO we still have 35% of the season to go and I'm pumped.

The O1 system will get an upgrade with more plays after looking at THREE game chases. FOUR game chases were to expensive but backtesting THREE game chases work out perfectly and I wish we had tested THREE instead of FOUR.

SO I'm goign to be posting

H3, S3 and O1 and the goal is still +100 units.

One odd this with O1 is the total difference between the Conferences in the shear number of OT games - In fact the EAST had twice as many as the West.

I'm going post graphs of all 3 systems so if there are any of you left still playing you can have an idea of the ups and downs.

EX is dead
SAS2 I'll continue to track but won''t post, I feel I scared people away

Back to basics and winning.

Red line is FOUR game chase
Blue is THREE game chase for 2013-14

H3 System +18.22 units - All Star break is giving me a great chance to go back and look at all the plays and make sure the spread sheets are corrected. Obviously I took on a little too much with the other systems. Hey - first year posting every freaking day!!

H3	W	L
A	19	27
B	14	13
C	10	3
D	3	0

H3 system takes certain teams when they have a 4 game Home or away stand and plays or fades that team.



S3 System +17.48 Not as many plays so a lose hurts more but it's the long run.

S3	W	L
A	15	21	41.7%
B	12	9	57.1%
C	7	2	77.8%
D	1	1	50.0%

Taking all 3 systems* the 4 game Chase is up 156.31 or 8.47 chase losses, the 3 game chase is up 81.01 or 9.80 chase losses.

* The O1 system is taking into account ALL teams so there is some room for flaming there (I know I know, the as posted Selected teams are still up 17). Just being truthful.

O1	W	L
A	56	43	56.6%
B	21	22	48.8%
C	17	5	77.3%
D	4	1	80.0%

Plays begin Tuesday and I'll have the 3 system plays posted Monday night! Let's rock out the rest of the way.

The basic talking point - all Legacy Systems are making profits

My GOAL

Using a 4 game chase with ALL Legacy Systems (S3, H3) and playing ALL O1 teams to win 50 units from this point and 100 for the year.

Nice Grinder, I had a feeling you'd use the break to sharpen all the data up and of course you did like the pro you are.

We'll finish strong for sure.

Hope u hit ur goal...put alot of work into this

2/18/14 - Legacy Systems

Results so far
O1* as posted only with selected teams
O1 using ALL teams
All Systems as posted +50.93u (3 gm Chase)
O1* +17.22u
S3 +15.49u
H3 +18.22u
All Systems 3-game chase (new O1) +86.82u +10.51 chase losses
O1 +53.01u
S3 +15.49u
H3 +18.22u
All Systems 4-game chase (new O1) +138.49 +7.5 chase losses
O1 +78.80u
S3 +14.66u
H3 +45.03u

Hope u hit ur goal...put alot of work into this

"work" - more like fascination - if it was work I wouldn't do it!
"goal" - well, it's something to shoot for, not sure it's actually doable.


Tuesday's games

H3 - no continuing series

H1A - Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00

S3 - two continuing series

S1B - Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
S2B - Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10

O1 - will start new series - underlying theory is busted with 5 days off.

H3	W	L	Pct
A	19	27	41.3%
B	14	13	51.9%
C	10	3	76.9%
D	3	0	100.0%
S3	W	L	Pct
A	14	22	38.9%
B	12	9	57.1%
C	7	2	77.8%
D	1	1	50.0%
O1	W	L	Pct
A	56	43	56.6%
B	21	22	48.8%
C	17	5	77.3%
D	4	1	80.0%

........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ .......28263

2/19/14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +49.62u(3-game chase) +6.00 chase losses
O# +17.22u
S# +15.28u
H# +17.12u
All Systems as posted +83.95u (4-game chase) +4.55 chase losses
O# +25.57u
S# +14.45u
H# +43.93u

Tuesday's games

H1A - Philadelphia 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
S1B - Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
S2B - Charlotte 2.31 to win 2.10 Win

Wednesdays Games

H2A - fade Houston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00
H3A - Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
H4A - fade Brooklyn Utah 1.10 to win 1.00

S1C - Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41 (have lost 13 straight on road ATS)

O1A - fade Phoenix Boston 1.10 to win 1.00

No S3 games

H1B - Philly continues Friday
O2A - fade Boston - Thursday

H#	W	L	Pct
A	19	28	40.4%
B	14	13	51.9%
C	10	3	76.9%
D	3	0	100.0%
S#	W	L	Pct
A	14	22	38.9%
B	13	10	56.5%
C	7	2	77.8%
D	1	1	50.0%
O#	W	L	Pct
A	56	43	56.6%
B	21	22	48.8%
C	17	5	77.3%
D	4	1	80.0%

28,394

2/20/14 - Legacy Systems

All Systems as posted +42.18u(3-game chase) +5.10 chase losses
O# +16.22u
S# +10.04u
H# +15.92u
All Systems as posted +75.90u (4-game chase) +4.11 chase losses
O# +23.57u
S# +9.60u
H# +42.73u

Results
H2A - fade Houston LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
H3A - Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 win
H4A - fade Brooklyn Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

S1C - Orlando 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost

O1A - fade Phoenix Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

Thursday

H2B - fade Houston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10
-----------------------------------------------

H1B - Philly - Friday
H2A - fade Boston - Friday
H4B - fade Brooklyn - Saturday
S1D - Orlando - Friday
O1B - fade Phoenix - Friday

H3	W	L	Pct
A	20	30	40.0%
B	14	13	51.9%
C	10	3	76.9%
D	3	0	100.0%
S3	W	L	Pct
A	14	22	38.9%
B	13	10	56.5%
C	7	3	70.0%
D	1	1	50.0%
O1	W	L	Pct
A	56	44	56.0%
B	21	22	48.8%
C	17	5	77.3%
D	4	1	80.0%