Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

SAS2	W	L	PCT	Units won per
A	36	22	62.07%	Chase	-0.27
B	8	12	40.00%	Straight bet	0.03
C	4	7	36.36%
D	4	1	80.00%
EX
A	40	36	52.63%	Units won per
B	26	12	68.42%	Chase	0.26
C	6	7	46.15%	Straight bet	0.09
D	4	2	66.67%
H3
A	16	22	42.11%	Units won per
B	12	10	54.55%	Chase	0.40
C	7	2	77.78%	Straight bet	-0.03
D	2	0	100.00%
S3
A	13	21	38.24%	Units won per
B	12	9	57.14%	Chase	0.46
C	7	2	77.78%	Straight bet	-0.05
D	1	1	50.00%
O1
A	30	15	66.67%	Units won per
B	6	9	40.00%	Chase	0.18
C	5	4	55.56%	Straight bet	0.14
D	2	2	50.00%

I'll probably follow next season when I have a little bit more time. Been doing SU last few weeks mostly on EX/SAS and it's not been going too well, but I really do appreciate the work and pretty graphs =P

BOL though Grinder and everyone following =)

Thanks Trep - I feel the pain! I've been picking and choosing With SAS2 - just playing the "A" games and hoping things turn around.

I believe you and a few others got in at the very worst time!

BOL the rest of the year.


GOD SAS2 is sucking. Should I just give up on it? OR - I might start betting against SAS2, after all 43% one way is 57% the other way!

01/31/14

All systems combined straight betting 226-193 corrected
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Last day of January - what a rotten month in so many ways - Not sure about when the Atlanta game will be made up. I guess Atlanta was totally f*cked up. They closed the city because of a storm and literally 10's of thousands of people were stranded on the highways in their cars for 16 hours. School children were stranded in schools for 2 days. Nat'l Guard was called in.

results

101 EX LAClippers 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
57A SAS2 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

I am seriously going to play AGAINST SAS2 - no really, I am

Friday's known games - in order of preference

103A EX fade Orlando M M M Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00
102A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)
96B EX Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10 **(1)

115B H3 fade Charlotte LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 **(2)
116A H3 fade Toronto Denver 1.10 to win 1.00

117A S3 fade LALakers Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 **(2)

**(3) See note about about SAS2

54B SAS2 fade Charlotte LALAkers 2.31 to win 2.10
47B SAS2 fade Utah Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10
55A SAS2 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00

49D SAS2 Orlando play at your own risk! - I agree with miczz

That's it.

**(3) I was thinking about tweaking SAS2 or dumping it but then realized it's usable, just not as planned at the moment. Straight betting I'll just go the opposite way. In the last 30 days it's hitting 55.7% going AGAINST it when straight betting. Just sayin.

	Winning Pct				Straight Betting Units				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD
SAS2*	37.5%	45.7%	44.9%	53.3%	-5.0	-4.9	-10.8	1.8	-14.47	-20.85	-16.73	-16.53
EX**	53.8%	47.1%	50.9%	56.3%	0.4	-3.8	-1.8	10.4	9.28	-1.78	-20.07	10.40
H3,S3,O1	50.0%	42.9%	47.2%	53.4%	-1.1	-8.4	-5.8	4.4	18.17	3.61	18.85	46.03
ALL Systems	47.1%	45.0%	47.5%	54.2%	-5.7	-17.1	-18.4	16.6	13.0	-19.0	-18.0	39.90

535-529 BUY


25882

i think ill play SAS2 D bet

D bets are 4-1 ill take my chances

OVERALL "D" bets are 13-6 so far in ALL systems and Posted plays.

SAS2 is 5-7 in "D" games in ALL plays but we all have seen how it is lately.

Milwaukee is 7-13 ATS in last 20
Orlando is 6-14 ATS in last 20

After losing 3 ATS in a row Orlando is 16-17 AT HOME since 2006 and 17-24 as a chalk
After losing 4 ATS in a row Milwaukee is 8-12 at home since 2006 and 11-12 as a dog

A battle of the pathetic, the two worst teams in the NBA


All signs say this game will go UNDER

Nevermind! I can't stand rooting against myself. LOL.

trust the D bets LOL

02/01/14

Results

103A EX fade Orlando M M M Milwaukee 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
102A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
96B EX Brooklyn 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE

115B H3 fade Charlotte LALakers 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
116A H3 fade Toronto Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST

117A S3 fade LALakers Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN



54B SAS2 fade Charlotte LALAkers 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
47B SAS2 fade Utah Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose by 1/2
55A SAS2 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

49D SAS2 Orlando play at your own risk!

Should I just start including the "D" games in the stats?? - people do tend to play the "D" games??
-

Saturday games

114B H3 fade Chicago New Orleans 2.31 to win 2.10
115C H3 fade Charlotte Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41
116B H3 fade Toronto Portland 2.31 to win 2.10

95C EX Portland 4.85 to win 4.41
96C EX Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41
101B EX LAClippers 2.31 to win 2.10
104A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
105A EX Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00

52C SAS2 fade Houston Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41
54C SAS2 fade Charlotte Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41
57B SAS2 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10
58A SAS2 Houston 1.10 to win 1.00
59A SAS2 fad Oklahoma City Washington 1.10 to win 1.00

New Column - WITH "D" bets included - instead of a 3 game chase - 4 game chase

	Straight bet Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2*	33.3%	43.6%	44.8%	52.7%	-14.89	-21.76	-23.05	-20.15	-3.47
EX**	53.3%	51.5%	50.0%	55.7%	-0.89	2.66	-15.28	9.20	3.34
H3,S3,O1	57.9%	39.5%	46.4%	53.1%	8.99	7.43	0.60	44.62	51.86
ALL Systems	48.1%	44.5%	47.0%	53.8%	-6.8	-11.7	-37.7	33.67	51.73

SELL

Make sure you check the final plays! SAS2 the loser system added th fade "C" Houston bet

January was a bad month - let's hope February goes better.

Looking at the 3 systems (SAS2, EX, Legacy group) The EX and Legacy are coming back while the SAS2 is still in a SELL mode.

02/02/14

Results

7-6 +3.02

114B H3 fade Chicago New Orleans 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
115C H3 fade Charlotte Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
116B H3 fade Toronto Portland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose

95C EX Portland 4.85 to win 4.41 lose
96C EX Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
101B EX LAClippers 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
104A EX Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
105A EX Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

52C SAS2 fade Houston Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41 Lose
54C SAS2 fade Charlotte Phoenix 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
57B SAS2 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
58A SAS2 Houston 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
59A SAS2 fade Oklahoma City Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

could have been been a GREAT night but Portland blew it. Only a good night.

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2	38.1%	48.8%	45.1%	53.1%	-14.89	-21.76	-23.05	-20.90	-4.22
EX	50.0%	50.0%	47.5%	55.1%	-0.89	2.66	-15.28	7.90	2.80
Legacy	61.9%	41.5%	45.6%	53.3%	8.99	7.43	0.60	48.82	56.06
ALL Systems	50.0%	46.6%	46.0%	53.8%	-6.8	-11.7	-37.7	35.82	54.64

Super Bowl Sunday OR The Professional Football Players Championship Game Day

103B EX fade Orlando Boston 2.31 to win 2.10
105A EX fade Boston Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

Word of note - Phoenix just won 4 straight on the road!

legacy140202.jpg

02/03/14

Results
103B EX fade Orlando Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
105A EX fade Boston Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

	Winning Pct				Chase Units
	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	7 day	14 day	30 day	YTD	w/D bets
SAS2	36.8%	48.6%	44.4%	53.1%	-15.24	-17.40	-28.19	-20.90	-4.22
EX	47.1%	50.0%	48.3%	55.1%	-2.42	1.10	-10.75	**15.74	2.80
Legacy	56.3%	45.9%	44.6%	53.3%	1.76	9.22	7.90	48.82	56.06
ALL Systems	46.2%	48.1%	45.8%	53.8%	-15.9	-7.1	-31.0	43.66	54.64

**Note - I had the wrong data in that cell yesterday

Mondays games

116C H3 fade Toronto Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 H3 "C" bets are 8-2
118A H3 fade San Antonio New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 H3 "A" bets are 16-23

104B EX Oklahoma City 2.31 to win 2.10 EX "B" bets are 27-13
105B EX Memphis 2.31 to win 2.10

47C SAS2 fade Utah Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41 SAS2 "C" bets are 5-8
57C SAS2 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41
59A SAS2 fade Detroit Miami SAS2 "A" bets are 39-23
60A SAS2 fade Sacramento Chicago

Let's make a run to the All-Star game in a couple weeks.


Some of you might wonder - why not just dump SAS2 as it's a dog. The problem I'm having and what is blowing my mind is that using the exact algorithm for the entire year here is the result.

Man - ya don't just want to give up on something like this . .

on January 13th it was up 86 units!!

why is POR still in the system? theyve given us so much headache

Here are the year long charts of the systems - back tested included - NOT posted plays. Just looking towards next year to see what is working and what doesn't and when.

Do these show up as a link? or an image??? for you guys!


charts140203.jpg

Shows as an image. Interesting stuff. Is the chart flat or chase betting?