Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

01/10/14

All systems combined straight betting 181-137 for +30.30 units
All chases Tot 68.01u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results
90A H3 Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
91A H3 Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
92A H3 fade Cleveland Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
93A S3 fade LA Lakers LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

65C EX fade Cleveland Utah 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost
71B EX fade Boston Golden State 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
74B EX fade Orlando Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
75A EX fade Detroit Philly 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
76A EX fade Cleveland Utah 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
73A EX Golden State1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

SAS2
"A" Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
"B" fade Chicago Milwaukee 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
"B" fade Brooklyn Miami 4.85 to win 4.41 Lost
"A" fade Phllly Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"B" Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
"A" fade Milwaukee Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"A" Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost

Last 7 days
S1,H3,O4 = 6-4
EX = 14-13
SAS2 22-12

Saturday's three systems

S3,H3,O1 = 85-71 +31.68u corrected
92B H3 Philly 2.31 to win 2.1
94A O1 fade Brooklyn Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

EX = 74-54 +25.48u
74B EX Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
75B EX fade Detroit Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10
77A EX fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
78A EX fade Milwaukee OKC 1.10 to win 1.00
79A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

SAS2 22-12 +10.88u
"B" Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
"C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41
"C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41
"A" fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
"B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10


Three NBA games Sunday - we can relax a little. Many teams are taking a few days off this week.

NOTE - All 3 game chases - 4 game chases proved to be a 50% bet
with too much stress involved. People skipped it and the numbers prove
it was not a +EV bet.

SIMPLE VERSION

Philly 2.31 to win 2.1
Toronto 7.05 to win 6.41
Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10
Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10
Oklahoma City 2.20 to win 2.00
Charlotte 2.65 to win 2.41
Washington 2.31 to win 2.10
Boston 2.31 to win 2.10


By my calculations last night was a -10 unit night which is bad but in the long run it was due. I view it like profit taking by the bookies!

shouldnt it suppose to be ex fade det?

NOTE - added "B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 - missed that one!
Changed SAS2 "C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41
Changed "C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41

Sorry guys - I guess I was in a hurry and missed a few things! Need to slow down.

This is a chart of the 5 systems combined this year.

I normally don't like to post stuff like this because it gives people false expectations but after a -10 unit night perhaps it's a good time.

01/12/14

All systems combined straight betting 189-143 for +31.70 units
All chases Tot 66.46u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Saturday's results

S3,H3,O1 = 86-72 +30.37u
92B H3 Philly 2.31 to win 2.1 LOSE
94A O1 fade Brooklyn Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

EX = 77-56 +23.86u
74B EX Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
75B EX fade Detroit Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose by 1/2
77A EX fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
78A EX fade Milwaukee OKC 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
79A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

SAS2 26-14 +12.23u
"B" Washington 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
"C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41 Lose
"C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41 Win
"A" fade Charlotte Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 Win
"B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 Win


Straight betting you won a couple - chase betting you lost a couple

Sundays Final games

92B H3 fade Cleveland Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.00
95A S3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00

76B EX Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10

SAS2
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" fade Sacramento hmmmm let's say Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00

SIMPLE VERSION

Cleveland to win 3.41 to win 3.10
Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

NOTE - added "B" fade Portland Boston 2.31 to win 2.10 - missed that one!
Changed SAS2 "C" fade Brooklyn Toronto 4.85 to win 4.41
Changed "C" Fade Chicago Charlotte 4.85 to win 4.41

Sorry guys - I guess I was in a hurry and missed a few things! Need to slow down.

This is a chart of the 5 systems combined this year.

I normally don't like to post stuff like this because it gives people false expectations but after a -10 unit night perhaps it's a good time.

Grinder, is the Y-axis measuring days or wagers? Could you PM me a sample of your spreadsheet?

isnt fade Clev an EX 'D' bet?

We aren't playing 4 game chases anymore bud. Check out grinders previous posts

The chart are days in the season on the bottom and daily units won lost going up the trend line.

3 game chases. When I was charting Stiffler the "D" bets were losing and this year my "D" were basically a 50% bet and I wonder how many people were playing them. They
were just adding stress. The stress per buck ratio was absurd. But that does not stop anybody from playing a "D" game.

and don't get me started on 1-7-5 betting where you hope you lose that first game.

Ill get to the rest of the picks, if there are any in about an hour.

The reason I'm against the 1-7-5 betting system is frankly - I don't understand the value in it besides anecdotal evidence that it works.

Of course I'm not fond of my 1-2.1-4.4 betting system either but it makes slightly more sense. In my chases the average bet size for all three games is 2.5 units. Iin 1-7-5 it's 4.3 units. So you are betting 73% more units, of course it's going to win more . . .when it wins. It's a much higher risk. I just don't understand the underlying logic. Does the 2nd game really offer 600% more value then the 1st game? and the 3rd game 28% LESS value then the 2nd game? Then why not just skip the 1st game and start with a 7 unit bet.

I'm not going to get into what is better, that is not my point. I'm just explaining why I'm not a big proponent of 1-7-5. Just does not have any real logic to it.

sorry. 1-7-5 is actually 1-15-26 which just blows my mind. What the hell is 1 unit then. The average bet is 14 units? Shaking my head. To each his own.

********+*

Better luck tomorrow

I have some inner demons at the moment and it's killing me. No one noticed I should have had Cleveland as a FADE in the EX system. I feel horrible. I have not figured out how to fix this yet.

01/13/14

All systems combined straight betting 190-148
All chases Tot 61.96u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results

S3,H3,O1 = 87-73 +31.37u

92B H3 fade Cleveland Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
95A S3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

EX = 77-57 +21.66u

imotiv8 - I and samcro1 both focused on the "D" part of your question - it was a "B" fade and you were correct-ish - I SHOULD have read you more correctly!
76B EX Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose

SAS2
SAS2 26-17 +8.93u
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" fade Sacramento hmmmm let's say Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

all right - here is the thing - on weekends you guys overseas just need to know that picks will be up later then during the weekdays. I seem to make mistakes when in a hurry on weekend mornings. 76B EX SHOULD have been FADE Cleveland. I apologize. My spread sheet has F Cleve and I just missed it for some reason.

Steps have been taken to correct the problem and I DO appreciate you guys checking for accuracy!

Monday - final

80A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
81A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00

"C" SAS2 Washington 4.85 to win 4.41
34A SAS2 Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00

"D" BET fade Chicago play at your own risk

More freaking words!

Of note - I've been back filling the SAS2 system starting from the beginning of the year up to December 6th. Those 35 days have resulted in a 72-54 record, +12.6 units. Chase wise 31.30 units. These numbers are actually worse then posted plays since I started.

Combine those 35 days and the 11 posted 99-71 +20.9 straight betting, +40.23 3 game chasing. Just sayin.

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

The chart are days in the season on the bottom and daily units won lost going up the trend line.

3 game chases. When I was charting Stiffler the "D" bets were losing and this year my "D" were basically a 50% bet and I wonder how many people were playing them. They
were just adding stress. The stress per buck ratio was absurd. But that does not stop anybody from playing a "D" game.

and don't get me started on 1-7-5 betting where you hope you lose that first game.

Ill get to the rest of the picks, if there are any in about an hour.

The reason I'm against the 1-7-5 betting system is frankly - I don't understand the value in it besides anecdotal evidence that it works.

Of course I'm not fond of my 1-2.1-4.4 betting system either but it makes slightly more sense. In my chases the average bet size for all three games is 2.5 units. Iin 1-7-5 it's 4.3 units. So you are betting 73% more units, of course it's going to win more . . .when it wins. It's a much higher risk. I just don't understand the underlying logic. Does the 2nd game really offer 600% more value then the 1st game? and the 3rd game 28% LESS value then the 2nd game? Then why not just skip the 1st game and start with a 7 unit bet.

I'm not going to get into what is better, that is not my point. I'm just explaining why I'm not a big proponent of 1-7-5. Just does not have any real logic to it.

sorry. 1-7-5 is actually 1-15-26 which just blows my mind. What the hell is 1 unit then. The average bet is 14 units? Shaking my head. To each his own.

does this mean all systems will end at C bet or just stifler's?

----

Originally Posted by miczz14

does this mean all systems will end at C bet or just stifler's?

I hope we're still going to D on everything, because those are the highest winning straight-bets in this whole thing...

Grinder: You have a big heart (which is a nice change from the norm!) but don't try to babysit the group from losses my friend. We're all big boys and those who want to chase will pay the price (or reap the rewards as it may be). And they will do so regardless of whether you tweak the systems to prevent it or not.

The systems are all doing well, particularly for the straight guys as you mentioned, so keep up the great work as you have been. And as always, thanks so much for everything you do.