Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

01/08/14
S1,H3,O4 = 82-69 +30.88u
EX = 70-45 +35.24u
SAS2 15-4 +13.90u.
All chases Tot 80.02u
Straight betting ALL games 167-118! +37.2u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results
86C S3 Sacramento 4.84 to win 4.41 Win
88B H3 Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
65B EX fade Cleveland Philly 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose
68A EX fade Boston Denver 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
69A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
70A EX fade Milwaukee Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
SAS2
"A" fade Chicago Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" fade Philly Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" Memphis 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
"A" Dallas 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Gasping for Air Wednesday known games

89A S3 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)

71A EX fade Boston LA Clippers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(3)
72A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
73A EX Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00***(1)

SAS2
"A" fade Houston LA Lakers 1.10 to win 1.00
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(2)
"A" fade Brooklyn Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
"A" Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(3)
"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(2)
"A" Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
"A" fade Portland Orlando 1.10 to win 1.00

***(1) if you are playing our complimentary home game it's
Golden State 2.20u to win 2.00
Brooklyn 0.00u to win 0.00

***(2) Well, that's going to wreak my winning pct. These games cancel each other out.

***(3) again - these games cancel. We will pick up the loser their next game as a "B" bet.

hmmmm, actually not that many plays with all the cancels! Go Golden State!!

A lot of teams taking 4 or 5 days off after Saturday.

Twitter @Grinder12000

Unbelievable night, wow. Excellent job Grinder.

Your EX and SAS3 games are 85-49 combined...just amazing.

Oh I've been doing a quiet happy dance hoping not to nudge the gambling gods from their slumber.

maybe I've broken the code.

Grinder, what posts are the explanation for all the plays, or could you post one? I'm a supervisor for my local post office (mailman by trade) and I just finished a month of many many hours and have had no time to follow. I just wanna catch up since it looks like I missed alot of units won.

------ POST 425 ------

Grinders Systems and how to play along for fun and hopefully profit

I'll explain the systems and then the betting (4 game chase but . . . . . )

The first three systems are bastardizations of Stifflers systems last year with some minor tweaks and different teams

H3 - play to win or lose 1 game out of the next 4, when a team starts a 4 game home stand or 4 game road trip.

S3 - play to win or lose 1 game out of the next 4 after a team wins or loses 3 consecutive games ATS (certain teams)

S1 Streak
PLAY	Fade
Brooklin	Brooklin
Cleveland	Mia
Charl	LAL
Orlando	N.O.
Golden St	OKC
Utah	Port

O1 - play to win or lose 1 game out of the next 4 after a team plays an overtime game (certain teams)

S4 Overtime
Play	Fade
Atlanta	Atlanta
LAClippers	Boston
Miami	Brooklyn
Sacremento	Dallas
Toronto	Denver
	Miami
	New Orleans
	NYKnicks
	Phoenix
	Portland
	Sacremento

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The following systems are my creation coming from theory's and observations from the last few years in chases and as I have said in the past I have much more confidence in these as I'm not locked into "rules" and can adjust as we go.

EX - Teams picked for chases are picked based on RPI which involves winning percentage (actual wins and losses) RPI looks at winning Pct home and away, opponents winning Pct home and away AND opponents opponents winning pct home and away. With the upcoming schedule taken into account.

SAS2 - Super Advanced S2 - is a secret until it fails.
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Betting

The above were all designed to be 4 game chases meaning your goal is to win ONE game out of the next 4. Once you win that chase is over. With chases winning is easy - NOT LOSING 4 is the goal.

Games are listed as "A", "B", "C" "D"

"A" bet 1.10units to win 1.00 - IF YOU LOSE
"B" bet 2.31units to win 2.10 - IF YOU LOSE
"C" bet 4.85units to win 4.41 - IF YOU LOSE
"D" bet 10.19units to win 9.26.

This is a high risk high reward betting system - I have no problem skipping "D" bets if I feel VERY uncomfortable. If you are up don't get greedy.

HOWEVER - many have noticed that "my" systems are kicking butt straight betting which, as of 1/8/14 were 85-49 (which match incomplete back testing percentages).

So if you are not in the high risk high reward mode - seems you can straight bet like a normal human. I did not create these for straight betting but I'm not surprised.

Official lines are used from the SBR site - nearest line to 5:00

Although if there is weirdness I have no problem taking a loss if needed. I'm not here to pump a record.

..... did I miss anything??

OH - @grinder12000

I love waking up and seeing my bank roll sky rocket. Loving the new plays grinder.

Excellent Work Grinder! The 2 new systems have been performing very well.

Just a quick question...so lines do not matter here? We're just betting on generally the odds to win a series for certain teams usually (among other factors)?

Trep, that is correct. And one thing I forgot. In general I use the line that was closest to 5:00EST, not closing line for the official line. People don't generally wait until game time to enter a wager. There was one game where the line moved from -2.5 to -5 in the last half hour. All day it was -2.5.

i try to be fair. I'm not here to pump my record and brag. I know I have been hot and will get spanked sooner or later. So far lines have not been a problem at all.

and in case anyone wonders, I take morning lines so I can get on with my day.

Makes sense. Just getting into SB myself and trying to do it disciplined this time. At least these chasing aren't bet the bank to try to recover =P

Thanks for all the work.

Welllllll . . . sort of! But from the looks of it straight betting EX and SAS2 is not the craziest thing. Just play within your bankroll and think hard before putting down 10 units on a game. We have had 4 big losers and it hurts.

I designed EX and SAS2 specifically for chasing and the side effect has been 75-49 posted plays and another 40-26 in non-posted back testing plays (November 2 to the 18th so far). So unofficially 115-75. I think most people will agree hitting 60% in the NBA is ludicrous!

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

In general I use the line that was closest to 5:00EST, not closing line for the official line. People don't generally wait until game time to enter a wager. There was one game where the line moved from -2.5 to -5 in the last half hour. All day it was -2.5.

i try to be fair. I'm not here to pump my record and brag. I know I have been hot and will get spanked sooner or later. So far lines have not been a problem at all.

and in case anyone wonders, I take morning lines so I can get on with my day.

Same here, could care less about timing the line, I bet when it's convenient (though this question keeps getting repeated by people who aren't taking the time to read the thread before asking).

It's one of the few times where a point here or a point there doesn't seem to impact the result...pushes have been extremely rare as a whole for example...

Actually if you pay attention you can get an extra half or whole point and it becomes a fun game. Try to get in the minds of Joe Square. Hot fav at home will sneak up but what I look for is the whole line.

+2.5 -105 yells me that the books are trying to get you to take that bet before they are forced to go to +3.

+2.5 -115 says they really don't want you to take it and hope you wait until it's +2

Not that it always works out but getting a good line is a learned art.

i know I've won a couple chases early because of a good line so it does help so shouldn't be totally ignored.

That really is part of the fun of it - shopping for lines. I've been trying to bring myself to place and evaluate after instead of stressing over some of these games.

Two of my books have low juice (50 cent) and rebates on losses (technically comes almost at even house edge) so I've been making some hedge bets between them. I actually hit on both sides on a NFL bet when I had a 1 point difference between them. Been tempted to do some live bet hedging when you're winning a bet when I have a weird feeling.

Also works wonders if you have extra books. I'm currently using 3...I just pick whoever has the best line at the moment and get back to work/eating/life =P

I HAD three books, one closed to Americans like 7 years ago and it has seemed to lose every game. The other two books only do winners and Intertops who I had a long long time shut down for us.