Grinder, I believe the original idea was to not lose money and cap each chase at three games (max loss around 10 units). At some point did the rules change?
I've been having a blast with this. Hoping it doesn't blow up quite yet.
Grinder: No cold feet, continue to post all the plays please. Particularly because the system was due for a correction and we're likely through it now.
Remember that no one is following blindly, you have silent lurkers in here betting the system straight (and well up btw), you have lurkers not even beginning the chase until the "B" games out of safety concerns, etc, etc, etc. There's far less at stake for most SBR players than it would appear, and it's not their first rodeo with a chase either.
Keep up the great work, post all the plays, and thanks again for doing what you do. Let's see it through to the end of the season and we'll evaluate everything then.
Awesome,that is what I wanted to hear. I keep thinking of playing the originals chases as a 3 game chase as opposed to a 4 game ( but listing all 4).
BTW. Portland will by a O4 fade chase. You can never have enough Portland games I say.
C and D bet to save the day!
@grinder
i think EX needs some work. even good teams can lose 4 straight spreads and if that happens we lose money by following.. maybe if the good team had 1 or 2 lose ATS we then start the chase?
That's the way to start the night off...big weight off the back with Orlando and bobcats.
You think EX needs work? It's winning 61%! I'm not messing with 61% system.
I AM tweaking the H1 system. Taking the lakers out and adding some away fade teams starting tomorrow.
61% is good but im just saying teams CAN lose 4 spread in a row
OH LOL I think we have witnessed that! No worry's! You may or may not have noticed some hot and cold teams that are beating or losing to the spread have not been on the EX because of scheduling or opponent weirdness. That is why I like the EX, because I have some say in the matter. Plus the fact that every series I learn a little more. Human artificial intelligence!61% is good but im just saying teams CAN lose 4 spread in a row
ACTUALLY I wonder if the best teams are .500 teams but maybe they can be pushed one way or the other too easily.
Lost the N.O. fade - I swear we missed the 12/23/13 "B" game - good thing! We have No fade "C" tomorrow in S1.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-27-13 at 09:45 PM.
Uhh, of course they can, that's why it's called gambling.Originally Posted by miczz14
61% is good but im just saying teams CAN lose 4 spread in a row
Dont change a thing Grinder, 61% is fantastic by any definition. Actually I've been surprised the EX games have performed so well for being relatively untested.
12/28/13
S1,H3,O4 = 66-61 +7.96u +10.08 last night
EX = 49-31 +38.47u
Tot 46.43u
Action Saturday! HELL YEA!
74B S1 N.O. fade Houston 2.31 to win 2.10
75C O4 Miami 4.85 to win 4.41***
77A S1 Charlotte fade Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00
78A O4 Portland fade Miami 1.10 to win 1.00***
53C EX Portland 4.85 to win 4.41 ***
79A O4 Atlanta fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00
42D EX Chicago fade Dallas 10.19 to win 9.26
52B EX Brooklyn fade Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10
54A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00
53A EX Philly fade Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
55A EX Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
56A EX Milwaukee fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.oo
*** if you are playing along with our home game the bast way to play the game is
Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 Do not play 75C O4, 53C EX
COME ON DALLAS
Since Oct 30 2012 Dallas is
35-20 ATS away
13-3 ATS with lines -2 to -3.5
34-19after 1 loss
8-3 after 1 home game
11-4 OVER after 1 loss
Chicago is
24-37 after 1 away game
19-39 ATS at home
4-14 UNDER as a dog of 2 to 3.5
all signs point to Dallas
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-28-13 at 11:06 AM.
NOTE - added
55A EX Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00
56A EX Milwaukee fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00
--------------------------------------------
A method to my madness.
EX system - RPI explained
All based on a winning Pct. However Winning PCT are calculated as follows.
A road win is weighted as 1.4 and a road loss is weighted as 0.6. Likewise, a home win is weighted as 0.6, and a home loss is weighted as 1.4. This holes for ALL winning pct
Thus
Team A is 4-1 (win percentage = .800)
Team A's opponents are 12-8 (win percentage = .600)
Team A's opponent’s opponents are 64-16 (win percentage = .800)
so
RPI = (0.25 * .800) + (0.5 * .600) + (0.25 * .800)
The teams I pick are on the bottom or top of the RPIs and must be +.600 or -.400.
I use 10 games non-balanced (they can have more home or away). 10 games is a little over 2 weeks. I feel teams change in 2 weeks so I don't want to go farther out.
Then I look at their upcoming schedule. Good teams can not play 3 road games of the next 4 and bad teams can not play 3 home games. I could make this stricter but . . . . so far so good.
I've been playing with if teams are getting better or worse but have not figured out how many games I should look at . . . plus . . . I think I have enough picks the way it is.
H1s are getting an upgrade.
I'm tightening the screws a little on chases but loosening a little on fades. LALakers will no longer be an H1 chase (they are truly horrible in H1s). But I'm starting to add select teams in H1 fades. Golden State, Charlotte and New3 Orleans will be faded in H1 now when playing 4 on the road.
As I said in the beginning - this is a work in progress.
O4 problems
Well - Portland was a bitch in O4. They are now an O4 fade. They were pretty even in chasing or fading in past records and being a contrairian in MOST gambling situations I went against the grain and got burned. Now they are a fade when it comes to O4s.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-28-13 at 01:54 PM.
Not playing 77a and 79a right?
HA - didn't even notice - correct. I guess YOUR not! LOL I focus so much on WHO to play I don't notice who they are playing.
This is when the bookie looks at my card and calls me an idiot!
I got a 4 game chase you might be interested in. I have not back tested this. I have looked at many many teams this year and last. With the naked eye, it seems pretty darn good.
Bet against a team ATS that scored 100 or more points 3 games in a row regardless of winning or losing. Recount the 3 games after your chase is over if that team continues to score 100 or more points during the 4 game chase.
This seems to be profitable with a 4 game chase, maybe profitable as well with a 3 game chase or even straight betting until you get a loss. I know this year you would have lost 2 times on a 4 game chase, but I counted many wins. I also see lot of wins. Maybe you could back test?
Last edited by keel44; 12-28-13 at 03:12 PM.
86 to 56 going into the 4th. Starting to feel like there MIGHT be a chance to cover 2.5. But will wait.
oh man. 86 to 58 now. Getting stressed.
WTF. Dallas has not scores in over 4 minutes.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-28-13 at 08:57 PM.
