Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

Just finished backtesting the 2012 Experimental system (which is really not an experment as I've been playing it for a while now).

Results are very encouraging. There were 5 "D" game losses but 4 of those all had the same characteristics. Fading teams playing 3 out of 4 at home. Only 1 "D" loss was "unforced" and that was fading a team playing ALL 4 games on the road.

Even WITH the 5 "D" game losses the system won 49 units. If I took out the plays where fading a team playing 3 of 4 at home I would NOT lose those 73.8 units but not sure how many chases I would NOT play. Probably 10? 15? So even taking out 20 chases that would give me 100 units. IN THEORY!! :-)

I guess we will find out this year.

Are you saying 4 of the 5 D losses occurred with S1 system where we faded when 3 of 4 games were home and chased when 3 of 4 games were away games?
thanks

Originally Posted by LakeShow

Are you saying 4 of the 5 D losses occurred with S1 system where we faded when 3 of 4 games were home and chased when 3 of 4 games were away games?
thanks

"experimental system", not S1.

Mako is correct - that was in back testing my EX system. I'm now going through, day by day 2010/2011. I actually like the EX over the original systems, more control.

Grinder - Numbering your experimental picks as series would be great for tracking purposes.

DS people and kids especially are some of the nicest and genuine people on the face of this earth. If the rest of us could be half as kind and gentle as they are the world would be a nicer place.

AND YOU GET A POINT. LOL. Inside joke

Great night over all. Nice work as always Grinder it is much appreciated. Did you go with Edmonton in NHL system? I pulled out, didn't have the guts.

12/14/13
S1,H3,O4 = 53-42 +37.55u
EX = 35-15 +35.00u
Tot 72.55u

results
57B H3 Boston 2.31 to win 2.1 WIN
58A O4 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
59A S1 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
EX "B" Philly fade Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
EX "A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
EX "A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

Saturday
60A H3 Miami 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
61A S1 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 ***
62A S1 LAL fade Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00
63A O4 Atl fade NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
36A EX Philly fade Portland 1.10 to win 1.00

*** = best thing to do is skip playing the game and play the loser when the dust settles - we get a win AND a loss but don't pay the juice. We will make up for the winning unit with betting 2.31 on the losing team.

bgilic - yea, lost a bundle but was up so it's not THAT painful. I didn't lose the last C bet so it evens out! Wallco was due . . sadly.

Hell of night this thread made the pounding of edmonton a lot more tolerable. Just some background on me, I am definitely a rage bettor/gambler. I have poor money management I'll get up something sick like 40-50 units and then lose a big bet or something and then chain bet to try and make it up. A common formula is lose a 20 unit bet and then lay 20-30 units on something outside of the system when that loses bet it all and bam not only have I lost all the units but lost the money I put in. Even though I took a loss tonight seeing all the W's on the NBA side has made me not feel like I need to go out get crazy so from a degenerate THANK YOU SOOOOO MUCH.

Hey Grinder. Good to see you made something out of that losing system last year. Lost a ton of money on it but you always had ideas of making it profitable. What do your RPI/Power Rankings look like right now? How often do you update those?

You think it's too late to join the party in here or you pretty confident there are plenty of units to win yet? Good luck man.

12/14 was updated adding a Philly Fade on the EX system

Cheesehead - my RPIs are updated every morning. Not too late. I personally have more confidence in the EX system but all seem to be running with the peddle to the metal at the moment

money management is the most important thing in sports wagering. You get rich in the long run not the short run. It's a lifetime system and the key is to keep increasing your bank every year. Not every week.

Playing blazers not okc right?

I have a question I jumped in with y'all yesterday. Thread states y'all won with Toronto. Which I know some may have/have not won depending on the line you got. Well I pushed, so in that case do I keep chasing or cut my losses. Same question goes for if I loose and y'all win with a future line

Jeremylynn as far as that game you are in luck as we are still fading Philly. Looking at Philly's upcoming schedule we might be fading Philly for a while if they don't start winning LOL So one way would be to put maybe 1/2 unit on all the philly fades coming up. We MIGHT have 3 or 4 more Philly fades coming up if things work out well.

As far as point spreads. I use the line that is closest to 5:00PM on

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/

I figure maybe a lot of people place wagers when they get home from work and can't watch all day. In this case you gut unlucky with an early line it looks like.

As far as future problems like this - I personally have no problems with cutting losses if things don't work out, or sometimes I try to grab a little more on future bets (like Philly fades).

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

12/14 was updated adding a Philly Fade on the EX system

Cheesehead - my RPIs are updated every morning. Not too late. I personally have more confidence in the EX system but all seem to be running with the peddle to the metal at the moment

money management is the most important thing in sports wagering. You get rich in the long run not the short run. It's a lifetime system and the key is to keep increasing your bank every year. Not every week.

But isn't money management pretty much against the idea of Stifler's system? The reason anyone ended up losing a ton on that system last year was because those long chases continuously kept losing. It's hard to consider it good money management when you continue chasing your money & keep losing. If we had just straight-bet everything it would have been a lot easier on the bankroll. It looks like your experiment is lowering the risk a little bit though so far.