Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

Reference Post #256

The Systems

S1 Whenever the below teams have a winning or losing streak of 3 games ATS start the 4 game chase following that streak.

S1 Streak - 10 year totals
PLAY	Fade
Brooklyn 55-1	Brooklyn 63-1
Cleveland 63-1	Mia 53-1
Charlotte 42-0	LAL 81-2
Orlando 57-1	N.O. 54-1
Golden St 55-1	Okla 44-1
Port 50-1	Port 51-1
Utah 59-0

H3 - Whenever a team starts a home or road trip of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4 game chase in the first game being played at home - ALL Teams

O4 -Whenever a team has an OT game start the 4 game chase OR fade using the following teams.

O4 Overtime with 10 year records
Play	Fade
Boston 48-0	Toronto 56-1
NYKnicks 54-1	Miami 57-0
Brooklyn 49-1	Atl 56-0
Phoenix 39-0	LAClippers 44-0
Dallas 45-0	Sac 52-0
N.O. 49-1
Portland 55-1

Grinders Experimental System

I use RPI* to determine the best and worst teams, then look at upcoming schedule, looking at my tea leaves, tossing a 13 sided die and picking a split card I make a wise and informed decision to chase or fade.

*RPI looks at Wins and losses giving more and less points to road and home wins and losses, then looks at opposing teams W/L .Pct AND looks at THEIR opponents W/L .Pct AND looks at strength of schedule. I use a 10 game non balanced algorithm.

The numbers as of 12/10/13 H3+S1+O4 = +28.04 units

H3	W	L	S1	Chase		S1	Fade		O4	total
A	8	6	A	4	5	A	2	3	A	15	13
B	5	1	B	4	1	B	1	2	B	5	7
C	0	0	C	1	0	C	1	0	C	4	3
D	0	0	D			D			D	2	1

Experimental System +31.00units

	Chase		Fade
	W	L	W	L
A	9	7	10	4	20	11
B	5	2	5	0	10	2
C	2	0			2	0
D

WAGERING! The following wagering guidelines are used - this is a HIGH risk, high reward system. Bet accordingly and you will not know what stress really is until you have a "D" game.

Gm	Risk	Win
A	1.10units	1.00
B	2.31	2.10
C	4.85	4.41
D	10.19	9.26

12/12/13 50W-42L +33.45u

Results
49C H3 New Orleans 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
56B O4 sac fade Utah 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
57A H3 Boston 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
experimental 33-14 +33.00u
"B" Milwaukee fade San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.1 WIN
"A" Philly fade Minnesota 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSS
"A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Thursday
No Games
Friday's known games
57B H3 Boston 2.31 to win 2.1
58A O4 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00 **
experimental
"A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00
"B" Philly fade Toronto2.31 to win 2.1

** Did I miss a N.O O4 series? They played OT on 12/02/13. hmmmm

Nice to see that C game close today. We will need all the funds for Wallco's NHL upcoming C games.

Ok I used to bet with a kiss system, very profitable.....I like what you have going here and I want to get on it Friday. Just a quick question is both systems added together up over 30 units or both seperately over 30 units to make this thread over 60 unit?

Ridiculously fun so far! May not last, but for now we're rollin'!!!

Jeremylynn - both are separate. I actually have more confidence in the experimental as I'm not locked into rules. I've been running the Ex system day by day using 2012 data with the same "rules" or "feelings" as I'm using this year and learning somethings along the way which I have been looking for this year. My concerns are not winning which is easy, but how NOT to lose.

Afterimage - yea - I agree 100% on your entire sentence.

I just did a quick number crunch and at this rate it truly is ridiculous. OH - 600 picks in a year. LOL We're looking at a little more then then 300units ! we might slow down a little! :-)

glad i jumped on this yesterday. will follow.

I've been in on ground floor and really happy with results as with all chases though there are going to be some pains.

12/13/13
50-42 +33.45u
New Experimental 33-14 +33.00u

I feel like I was on a vacation LOL

Friday
57B H3 Boston 2.31 to win 2.1
58A O4 New Orleans 1.10 to win 1.00
59A S1 Brooklyn 1.10 to win 1.00
EX "B" Philly fade Toronto 2.31 to win 2.10
EX "A" Oklahoma City 1.10 to win 1.00
EX "A" Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

Should be it. I'll know for sure in the morning.

Saturday's knowns

60A H3 Miami

I was starting to get worried Grinder.

Do you keep series number for experimental games or just wing it

Have to heard about the sign language interpreter at Nelson Mandela's funeral was fake. The deaf community will never hear the end of this story.

Grinder-- In post 256 S1, Brooklyn has covered 3 straight against the spread... You have both Play and Fade them.. Both have been good.. So tonight's game in Detroit you have them as a PLAY.. I'm thinking we could go either way according to the Stats.. Am I correct? "UPON FURTHER REVIEW" I now know why they are a PLAY.. Detroit has lost 3 in a row against the spread and Detroit is not one the teams listed as a play after this happens... Learning more as I go...

Thanks for everything you are doing.. Keep up the good work..

raangeman - if Brook had lost 3 in a row we would be fading, since they won 3 in a row we are chasing.

bgilic - yea winging it - do you guys want numbers? does it help?

On a funny serious note - my daughters kids are learning sign language as one kid has Down Syndrome (what an amazing affliction that really is) so I'm forced to watch signing DVDs at times. I saw that guy and thought it was some odd signing but what do I know.

Down Syndrome is amazing because people with DS KNOW they are not like others but wish they were. Their biggest problem is that they can not communicate so many are learning to sign which is much easier. I knew nothing about DS but now I will go out of my way to be friends with them as they want to be liked. They know they are odd and are embarrassed. Make a friend with a person with DS and they will be your unconditional friend for life.

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

raangeman - if Brook had lost 3 in a row we would be fading, since they won 3 in a row we are chasing.

bgilic - yea winging it - do you guys want numbers? does it help?

On a funny serious note - my daughters kids are learning sign language as one kid has Down Syndrome (what an amazing affliction that really is) so I'm forced to watch signing DVDs at times. I saw that guy and thought it was some odd signing but what do I know.

Down Syndrome is amazing because people with DS KNOW they are not like others but wish they were. Their biggest problem is that they can not communicate so many are learning to sign which is much easier. I knew nothing about DS but now I will go out of my way to be friends with them as they want to be liked. They know they are odd and are embarrassed. Make a friend with a person with DS and they will be your unconditional friend for life.

My close friend's boy is DS and you are so right Grinder! They are great kids!

Just finished backtesting the 2012 Experimental system (which is really not an experment as I've been playing it for a while now).

Results are very encouraging. There were 5 "D" game losses but 4 of those all had the same characteristics. Fading teams playing 3 out of 4 at home. Only 1 "D" loss was "unforced" and that was fading a team playing ALL 4 games on the road.

Even WITH the 5 "D" game losses the system won 49 units. If I took out the plays where fading a team playing 3 of 4 at home I would NOT lose those 73.8 units but not sure how many chases I would NOT play. Probably 10? 15? So even taking out 20 chases that would give me 100 units. IN THEORY!! :-)

I guess we will find out this year.

Sounds great grinder....you got me pumped, hope everything goes well