So where is the latest status of your system's p/l?
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Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-04-13 at 06:10 PM.
"P/l". What. Puck line? Lol.
profit loss +19.94. To be honest I'm not super happy but were keeping out head above water.
It really depends on what you call back testing bgilic. I've gone back 12 years looking at all the series. The Streak series as a whole, taking all teams is a winning theory, but not much. So I've use certain teams that over the years are better then other teams.
the Home series do not have enough hits to get a real idea but in real time last year it was a winner.
the OT series I did as the streak and took teams that were very good in the last 10 years.
that is why I warn people not to bet the house. I guarantee nothing except I put $ on every game.
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Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13 at 07:45 AM.
Points Awarded:
KC Needs Hockey gave Grinder12000 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Are we doing 4 game or 3 game chase on O series?
All 4 game chases. Worst case is a little over 10 units on the "D" game.
Why are we betting on Chicago? They played a triple OT game two nights ago. Aren't they a fade?
Numbersneverlie - I'm looking at my spreadsheets and wondering that myself - I took them off BOTH O4 systems and am recalculating.
Looking at my algorithm - the rest of the teams don't have the number I'm looking for.
I have extra units on Chicago tonight - I might just reverse those units and take a juice loss to make myself feel comfortable.
That Overtime system is not THAT wonderful overtime. Last year taking ALL teams it lost 49 units! Not sure where Stiffler got his numbers for that one.
O4 Overtime Play Fade Boston 48-0 Toronto 56-1 NYKnicks 54-1 Miami 57-0 Brooklyn 49-1 Atl 56-0 Phoenix 39-0 LAClippers 44-0 Dallas 45-0 Sac 52-0 N.O. 49-1 Portland 55-1
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13 at 07:42 AM.
UPDATE
12/05/13 46W-38L +19.84
Results
48A H3 Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00u WIN
49A H3 N.O. 1.10 to win 1.00u LOSE
Thursday
46B H3 Chicago 2.31 to win 2.1
Friday's known games
44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u
numbersneverlie noticed an error in the OT games and I recalculated that system and removed Chicago and a few other teams. That system is not THAT wonderful when looking at the league as a whole.
I'll repeat this yet again - this is a work in progress - I guarantee nothing except I will not lose a LOT of cash because if this crash's I wont continue it. But I do have my $$ on every game and over my lifetime I have done well.
Find a system, ride it up and when it starts to crash jump off! The upside is always higher then the downside if you know when to jump.
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13 at 07:49 AM.
Ok sounds good. Thanks for update. I noticed that and just wanted to make you aware. Keep up great work
I still think that this system has potential with minor tweaks.
bgilic - all ears
On that note I've been going over some H3 data and I would like to add a couple fades coming up - what do you guys think. I'm going to so should I include them here?
I'm fading Orlando in a 4 game chase starting tomorrow and fading Dallas in a THREE game chase starting Saturday.
Lats year H3 in ALL teams was 148 - 5.5 for ABOUT +50 units! But the losses main losses were in the Fades. I have not been playing the FADES this year but might start to dip my toes in. Anyone want to come along?
and BTW - bgilic - what if there is a sports wagerer who is gay. think he would appreciate your Avatar?
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-05-13 at 03:37 PM.
12/06/13 47W-38L +23.04* added 1.10u as I only gave *1.0u to a B win on 32BFriday
Results
46B H3 Chicago 2.31 to win 2.1 - WIN +4
44C O4 Sac fad LALakers 4.85 to win 4.41u
49B H3 N.O. 2.31 to win 2.10u
51A H3 Orlando FADE - NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00u
52A S1 Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00u
53A S1 Portland 1.10 to win 1.00u **
** I've been playing with handicapping (using my brain) chases for a while now. No "system" but looking at schedules so forth. 53A Portland was one that I had circled as a Handicapping chase but it's already a chase so . . . .
I think I MIGHT post some of my personal chases as a G1 chase at some point.
H
A 7-5
B 4-0
OT
A 14-12
B 5-7
C 3-3
D 2-1
S
4-7
B 5-2
C 2-0
Last edited by Grinder12000; 12-06-13 at 07:39 AM.
an update of this stats would be niceOriginally Posted by Grinder12000
Records
H3 (was S3)
A 6-3
B 3-0
O4 (was S4)
A 13-10
B 4-6
C 3-3
D 2-1*
S1
A 3-7
B 5-2
C 2-0
* because I finally found OT stats - if we played with the new data we would not have lost that "D" bet and chase-wise would be 17-0 as opposed to 22-1 I don't have that broken down into A,B C yet (I'm on an archaic computer until Tuesday).
fun with numbers
we are averaging 0.71 units per day.
there are 138 days left in the season which is 98.67 units. IF (BIG IF) we keep this pace that would be 120.12 units.
