Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

Food for thought - I have this software that gives me an RPI.



ANYWAY - what if I took Pythagorean theorem, or at least how it's used in sports to create a winning % for one team THEN figure out a point spread. For instance the "E" game from above (NO, we are not betting an "E" game but . . )

Memphis .577
Houston .539

(.577*.577)=.332929
(.539*.539)=.290521

((.332929 / (.332929+.290521)) = .530 this is the winning % that Memphis should have when they play Houston.

.530 is about -113 in a line. The TRUE line (so to speak) Now we just have to know what -113 is in a point spread.

today I see -125 is -1.5 So -113 is maybe -1 or less. Basically a pick. Memphis is +1.5 so the play is Memphis!!

Or something like that - once I get home from a 7 day road trip I'll look into this deeper.

Taking that same concept Detroit should win .581 over the Bucks which is -139. hmmmmm Play is the 2-9 Bucks on the road! hmmmmm

Does it give a separate home and road RPI for a team? Here are my thoughts, lets say a team is perfect at home 20-0 but on the road 0-20 I would assume RPI would be somewhere around the middle of the pack but the line will be directly affected if they are home or away and going off of a .500 RPI or what ever it would be might hurt value of home court.

Home wins and losses are calculated different the road wins losses. So a home win means less the a road win.

RPI also takes into account opponent win% AND opponents opponents win % and strength of schedule.

Originally Posted by Grinder12000

11/25/13 37W-32L +14.04




Today

38A S1 Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00

Tomorrow - Tuesday's known games

29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn

S1 DET A bet? or MIL fade a bet? please help me im kinda confused

I apologize It's an S3 - got my systems mixed up

S3: Whenever a team starts a home or road trip of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4

No S1's for a long time - well, 5 days which seems a lifetime in Chase years.

11/26/13 38W-32L +15.04

Results
38A S3 Detroit 1.10 to win 1.00 -well, that was easy!

And now we know why we don't do "E" bets! Anyone for an "F" bet? Only 37.90 to win 33.54!

Tuesday's games

29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41
39A S1 N.O. fade Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

Wednesday games

40A S4 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00 the first S4 FOLLOW in history!

On the road Tuesday trying to get 600 miles under my belt!

Revised and correct S4

S4 Overtime			S1 Streak
Play	Fade		PLAY	Fade
Boston 47-0	Toronto 56-1		Brooklyn 55-1	Brooklyn 63-1
Brooklyn 44-1	Atlanta 50-0		Cleveland 63-1	Mia 53-1
Chicago 57-0	Dallas 40-1		Charl 42-0	LAL 81-2
Denver 39-0	LA Clippers 39-0		Orlando 57-1	N.O. 54-1
Detroit 43-1	LALakers 43-1		Golden St 55-1	Okla 44-1
Houston 45-1	Memphis 45-0		Port 50-1	Port 51-1
Milwaukee 41-1	Miami 54-0		Utah 59-0
New Orleans 43-1	Minnesota 29-1
Philly 44-1	Orlando 30-1
Phoenix 37-0	Sacramento 48-0
Portland 46-1	Washington 42-1

Sorry for the noob question but what does FADE mean?

Fade means bet against
Follow means bet ON - I'm not sure if Follow is a real gambling term LOL

Always play the highlighted team

You might ask what is the difference? - it's is the WHY we are playing a team. Sometimes we bet AGAINST a team no matter who they are playing and others times we FOLLOW a team.

If anybody is just jumping on, this is a 4 game chase betting scheme system and it's aggressive

Lose the first and we up our bets as seen below

Bet / to win

1.10units	1.00u
2.31	2.10
4.85	4.41
10.19	9.26

The theory is "HEY, they can't possibly do that 4 times in a row, what could possibly go wrong!"

Once we win the bet we are done with that chase.
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See you guys in 500 miles and only another 500 after that!! On the road with Grinder! Next picks will be tomorrow morning

Tail and chase mean the same as follow also.

Thanks guys. Well I am jumping on this train so don't let me down

So if I understand correctly if my bet unit is $50 it will look something like this.

Day 1:
$55 to win $50
Day 2: (if day 1 is loss)
$115.50 to win $105
Day 3: (if day 2 is loss)
$242.50 to win $220.5
Day 4: (if day 3 is loss)
$509.50 to win $463

If all four days are loss you are expecting to be down $922.50 or 18.45 units. So we are expecting 19 or more streaks to be snapped before a team goes on 4+ losing streak.

11/27/13 40W-32L +20.45

Results
29C S4 Toronto fade Brooklyn 4.85 to win 4.41
39A S1 N.O. fade Golden State 1.10 to win 1.00

Wednesday

40A S4 Chicago 1.10 to win 1.00

Next known game

11/29/13 41A S3 Sacramento

Anybody adverse on changing the system names to slightly more meaningful?

S1 = H1 Home
S3 = S3 Streak
S4 = O4 Overtime

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Drove 624 miles today - another 400 tomorrow!!

bgilic - you got it buddy

Thanks guys. So how do you deal with a push? Do you bet the team again next game? On that topic how do you select the plays in the first place?

NO Fade is a push

Are you able to tell me what your win / loss rate is on "A", "B", "C" & "D" bets?

Credit also for all the work you put in.

depends when the fade happens.

as far as betting in S3 a push becomes a problem, In S1 and S4 a push is a no play and the chase continues.

I'll have some numbers once I get to a real computer tomorrow. Open Source Office at the moment.

System explanation
S1 - When CERTAIN teams have winning or losing streaks of 3 games (ATS) chase that team as it will continue to win or lose 1 game in the next 4

S4 - When CERTAIN teams play an overtime game it will lose or win one game ATS in their next 4.

S3: Whenever a team starts a home stand of at least 4 consecutive games start the 4 game chase in the first game being played @home

Grinder, really enjoy what you're doing here. Keep it up! I will continue to follow along all season.

In terms of the system names, I'm all in favor of your suggestions (H1, S3, O4). May be easier to follow that way.